prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 148 Alabama A&M 40 45.0, 232 Mississippi Valley Sta 22 15.9
92% 127 East Tennessee State 34 39.5, 231 Virginia Military 23 12.2
92% 53 Central Florida 31 47.5, 192 Southwestern Louisiana 0 17.1
92% 38 Boise State 26 49.3, 174 Central Michigan 10 16.9
92% 33 North Carolina State 27 42.8, 166 Ohio 7 7.6
92% 13 Tennessee 38 49.1, 147 Vanderbilt 0 17.3
92% 8 Fresno State 40 57.1, 154 San Jose State 21 17.5
92% 6 Kansas State 24 46.6, 97 Missouri 3 15.0
92% 3 Texas 21 38.3, 49 Texas A&M 7 10.1
92% 1 Miami - Florida 65 45.0, 32 Washington 7 8.3
91% 26 Texas Tech 58 43.4, 144 Stephen F. Austin 3 12.6
88% 48 South Florida 34 47.1, 137 Utah State 13 25.4
87% 132 California 20 33.6, 228 Rutgers 10 12.0
87% 129 Akron 65 37.6, 208 Eastern Michigan 62 17.4
87% 22 Illinois 34 46.1, 107 Northwestern 28 25.1
86% 172 South Carolina State 16 33.2, 229 Norfolk State 10 14.3
85% 135 Portland State 52 42.1, 209 Sacramento State 33 24.4
84% 125 Temple 56 30.0, 205 Connecticut 7 11.0
84% 119 Fordham 41 36.0, 184 Columbia 10 18.8
84% 109 Montana 33 46.4, 188 Idaho 27 28.7
84% 80 Louisiana Tech 19 43.1, 198 Tulsa 7 24.3
82% 39 Marshall 38 36.4, 93 Youngstown State 24 20.8
81% 84 New Mexico 53 36.2, 138 New Mexico State 0 21.5
80% 124 North Carolina A&T 36 36.8, 179 Delaware State 30 22.2
79% 150 James Madison 14 31.4, 222 Liberty 7 17.9
78% 112 McNeese State 31 32.0, 181 Jacksonville State 21 20.1
78% 60 Wake Forest 38 38.6, 106 Northern Illinois 35 26.0
78% 47 Georgia Southern 48 30.9, 118 Wofford 10 19.6
78% 24 Louisiana State 41 32.0, 58 Arkansas 38 19.4
77% 149 Eastern Washington 48 39.0, 213 Idaho State 45 29.1
75% 161 Baylor 56 30.3, 197 Southern Illinois 12 20.4
75% 88 Hawaii 52 38.7, 120 Air Force 30 29.7
70% 19 Pittsburgh 23 26.1, 65 West Virginia 17 18.9
67% 103 Richmond 35 18.5, 143 Massachusetts 7 13.8
64% 54 Indiana 13 31.8, 61 Purdue 7 26.6
61% 165 Kansas 27 27.8, 158 Wyoming 14 24.8
60% 131 Rhode Island 27 18.0, 126 Northeastern 26 16.0
60% 34 Stanford 17 34.1, 37 Notre Dame 13 31.7
59% 71 Bowling Green 56 27.8, 63 Toledo 21 25.7
58% 193 Nicholls State 28 24.4, 212 Arkansas State 22 22.8
56% 14 Georgia 31 28.1, 30 Georgia Tech 17 27.0
45% 81 Minnesota 42 25.1, 56 Wisconsin 31 26.2
45% 41 Syracuse 39 17.4, 18 Boston College 28 18.3
44% 211 Alcorn State 17 22.5, 218 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 10 23.7
42% 50 Penn State 42 20.6, 64 Michigan State 37 22.2
42% 28 Southern Mississippi 28 26.3, 31 East Carolina 21 27.8
40% 169 Tennessee State 64 34.7, 136 Jackson State 33 37.1
40% 90 William & Mary 47 31.4, 68 Villanova 44 33.7
39% 133 Kent State 24 25.1, 99 Miami - Ohio 20 28.3
39% 117 Grambling 30 18.6, 100 Southern 20 21.5
37% 67 Arizona 34 27.3, 55 Arizona State 21 31.6
36% 77 Mississippi State 36 23.8, 44 Mississippi 28 28.7
33% 45 Iowa State 17 25.7, 12 Iowa 14 31.8
29% 92 Cincinnati 36 20.4, 69 Memphis State 34 28.5
26% 159 Southern Methodist 37 19.2, 104 Rice 20 27.6
25% 202 Nevada - Reno 48 33.1, 163 Texas - El Paso 31 43.0
24% 35 Ohio State 26 17.7, 10 Michigan 20 27.5
21% 79 Texas Christian 37 19.1, 15 Louisville 22 32.2
21% 21 Colorado 62 17.4, 4 Nebraska 36 30.4
18% 200 California Poly 10 19.0, 140 Saint Mary's 0 34.8
18% 151 Ball State 35 15.6, 83 Western Michigan 31 31.3
8% 91 Oklahoma State 16 8.1, 5 Oklahoma 13 45.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 0.66 12 0.67 16 0.82 14 1.01 12 1.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 62 41 0.87
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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