prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 88 Cincinnati 42 40.3, 216 Northeast Louisiana 10 7.9
92% 49 Clemson 59 49.8, 188 Duke 31 19.1
92% 15 Fresno State 70 50.3, 142 Utah State 21 18.0
92% 9 Georgia 35 57.7, 198 Houston 7 6.8
90% 1 Miami - Florida 26 39.0, 12 Virginia Tech 24 14.7
89% 37 North Carolina 19 35.8, 137 Southern Methodist 10 12.6
87% 31 Stanford 41 47.2, 154 San Jose State 14 25.0
87% 29 Georgia Southern 60 34.6, 115 Florida A&M 35 14.4
84% 96 Sam Houston State 34 43.5, 156 Northern Arizona 31 27.0
84% 62 Mississippi 38 38.9, 140 Vanderbilt 27 20.2
79% 7 Oregon 17 34.5, 21 Oregon State 14 21.7
78% 43 Lehigh 27 35.9, 84 Hofstra 24 24.3
77% 39 California - Los Angel 52 27.7, 76 Arizona State 42 16.9
77% 20 Louisiana State 27 28.9, 53 Auburn 14 18.1
76% 25 Pittsburgh 24 22.3, 44 Alabama - Birmingham 6 13.4
76% 17 Florida State 28 38.2, 35 Georgia Tech 17 27.8
74% 42 Furman 24 23.1, 73 Western Kentucky 20 15.1
70% 105 Montana 28 28.4, 118 Northwestern State 19 21.3
70% 93 Troy State 18 23.9, 108 North Texas 16 16.9
68% 98 Grambling 38 37.6, 125 Alabama State 31 31.3
68% 82 Michigan State 55 28.6, 89 Missouri 7 22.0
67% 24 Brigham Young 41 35.0, 63 Mississippi State 38 28.3
66% 72 Maine 14 23.6, 116 McNeese State 10 18.6
66% 69 Indiana 26 36.3, 79 Kentucky 15 30.9
60% 100 Appalachian State 40 28.9, 95 William & Mary 27 26.5
48% 33 Notre Dame 24 16.5, 46 Purdue 18 16.8
40% 60 Sacred Heart 31 28.2, 61 Duquesne 15 30.9
40% 30 Alabama 28 18.1, 14 Southern Mississippi 15 20.4
37% 181 Army 26 22.6, 157 Navy 17 26.9
33% 99 Toledo 41 33.0, 50 Marshall 36 38.7
32% 85 Virginia 20 23.0, 40 Penn State 14 29.7
28% 4 Colorado 39 29.0, 3 Texas 37 37.7
24% 113 Northern Iowa 49 26.0, 78 Eastern Illinois 43 36.6
10% 136 Air Force 38 14.7, 18 Utah 37 38.5
10% 10 Tennessee 34 19.0, 2 Florida 32 44.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 13 0.94 9 1.02 6 0.96 6 0.91 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 35 25 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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