6 Jan 2002: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  1   8 13.7  3.8 Miami - Florida          121 **   0  8.8  0.6 Middle Tennessee State  
  2  2   8 11.9  4.8 Kansas State             122 **   0 10.0 -0.2 Eastern Illinois        
  3  3   8 11.9  4.6 Oklahoma                 123 **   0  7.4  1.6 Montana State           
  4  4   8 12.6  4.0 Southern California      124 **   0  8.4  0.9 Vanderbilt              
  5  5   7 12.6  3.6 Texas                    125 **   0  8.6  0.7 Florida A&M             
  6  6   6 11.3  4.1 Georgia                  126 **   0  6.4  2.3 Troy State              
  7  7   6 10.5  4.5 Ohio State               127 **   0  9.4  0.0 Northwestern            
  8  8   6 10.7  4.1 Alabama                  128 **   0  8.7  0.5 Lafayette               
  9  9   6 11.8  3.2 Iowa                     129 **   0  7.9  1.2 Duke                    
 10 10   6 11.2  3.6 Penn State               130 **   0  7.3  1.5 Rice                    
 11 11   6 11.3  3.6 Michigan                 131 **   0  8.8  0.4 Eastern Washington      
 12 37   6 11.5  3.4 Florida                  132 **   0  9.0  0.2 Indiana                 
 13 13   5 11.9  3.0 Boise State              133 **   0  8.0  1.0 Stephen F. Austin       
 14 14   5 11.4  3.3 Florida State            134 **   0  9.6 -0.3 San Diego               
 15 15   5 10.5  4.0 Virginia Tech            135 **   0  6.7  1.9 Youngstown State        
 16 16   5 10.9  3.7 Auburn                   136 **   0  8.7  0.4 New Mexico State        
 17 17   5 12.6  2.2 Texas Tech               137 **   0  9.3 -0.1 San Jose State          
 18 18   5 11.4  3.0 Colorado                 138 **   0  8.2  0.7 Albany                  
 19 19   5 10.5  3.6 Maryland                 139 **   0  9.0  0.1 Southeast Missouri State
 20 20   5 11.4  2.9 Washington State         140 **   0  8.5  0.5 Akron                   
 21 21   5 10.3  3.5 Louisiana State          141 **   0  7.6  1.0 Towson                  
 22 22   4 10.9  2.9 North Carolina State     142 **   0  7.0  1.4 Wagner                  
 23 38   4  9.6  3.8 Tennessee                143 **   0  7.7  0.9 The Citadel             
 24 24   4 10.8  2.9 Boston College           144 **   0  6.8  1.5 Nicholls State          
 25 25   4 10.6  3.1 Oregon State             145 **   0  6.2  2.0 James Madison           
 26 26   4 10.2  3.2 Nebraska                 146 **   0  8.4  0.3 Wyoming                 
 27 27   4 10.7  2.8 Purdue                   147 **   0  9.0 -0.1 Louisiana Tech          
 28 28   4  9.7  3.4 Pittsburgh               148 **   0  7.0  1.3 Princeton               
 29 29   4  9.2  3.7 Notre Dame               149 **   0  7.6  0.8 Ohio                    
 30 30   4 11.1  2.3 Washington               150 **   0  6.4  1.8 Alabama A&M             
 31 32   4 10.5  2.7 California - Los Angeles 151 **   0  7.1  1.2 Saint Mary's            
 32 32   4  9.6  3.4 Pennsylvania             152 **   0  7.3  1.0 Illinois State          
 33 33   4 10.2  2.9 Georgia Southern         153 **   0  7.5  0.8 Portland State          
 34 34   4 10.5  2.7 South Florida            154 **   0  7.3  1.0 Southern                
 35 35   4 11.6  1.8 Arizona State            155 **   0  7.7  0.7 Northern Arizona        
 36 36   4  9.9  3.0 Texas Christian          156 **   0  8.7 -0.1 Houston                 
 37 37   3 11.1  2.1 Virginia                 157 **   0  7.3  0.9 Tennessee Tech          
 38 38   4  9.9  3.0 Arkansas                 158 **   0  9.7 -0.9 Utah State              
 39 39   3 11.0  2.1 Mississippi              159 **  -1  6.8  1.2 Stony Brook             
 40 40   3  9.7  3.0 Texas A&M                160 **   0  7.8  0.5 Western Carolina        
 41 41   3 10.2  2.6 Wisconsin                161 **   0  8.4  0.0 Murray State            
 42 42   3 11.4  1.7 Marshall                 162 **  -1  7.3  0.8 Southwest Missouri State
 43 43   3 11.1  1.9 Oklahoma State           163 **  -1  8.1  0.2 Gardner - Webb          
 44 45   3 10.9  2.1 Oregon                   164 **  -1  7.0  1.0 Southern Methodist      
 45 45   3 10.2  2.6 Wake Forest              165 **  -1  8.3  0.0 Navy                    
 46 46   3 11.2  1.8 California               166 **  -1  7.7  0.5 Northern Iowa           
 47 47   3 10.4  2.3 Iowa State               167 **  -1  6.1  1.7 Florida International   
 48 48   3  8.8  3.4 Dayton                   168 **  -1  6.6  1.3 South Carolina State    
 49 49   3 10.1  2.4 West Virginia            169 **  -1  8.0  0.2 Brown                   
 50 50   3 10.3  2.2 Illinois                 170 **  -1  7.3  0.6 Marist                  
 51 51   3  9.7  2.6 Colorado State           171 **  -1  7.9  0.2 Holy Cross              
 52 52   3 10.5  2.0 Villanova                172 **  -1  7.8  0.2 Alabama State           
 53 53   3  8.5  3.4 Southern Mississippi     173 **  -1  8.5 -0.4 Morgan State            
 54 54   3  8.4  3.4 South Carolina           174 **  -1  7.5  0.3 Jacksonville State      
 55 55   3  9.8  2.4 Louisville               175 **  -1  8.5 -0.5 Idaho                   
 56 56   3 11.1  1.4 Bowling Green            176 **  -1  6.4  1.1 Saint Peter's           
 57 57   3 10.6  1.7 Missouri                 177 **  -1  7.8  0.0 Texas Southern          
 58 58   3 10.2  2.0 Clemson                  178 **  -1  7.3  0.3 Central Michigan        
 59 59   3  9.0  2.9 Western Kentucky         179 **  -1  5.6  1.6 Bucknell                
 60 60   3  9.0  2.8 Georgia Tech             180 **  -1  7.8 -0.2 New Hampshire           
 61 61   2 10.8  1.4 Toledo                   181 **  -1  7.1  0.3 Sam Houston State       
 62 62   2  9.5  2.3 McNeese State            182 **  -1  7.3  0.1 Alcorn State            
 63 63   2 10.1  1.9 Cincinnati               183 **  -1  6.4  0.7 Indiana State           
 64 64   2  9.9  2.0 Minnesota                184 **  -1  8.1 -0.5 Kansas                  
 65 65   2 10.6  1.5 Kentucky                 185 **  -2  7.6 -0.2 Dartmouth               
 66 66   2  9.6  2.2 Montana                  186 **  -2  8.0 -0.6 Sacramento State        
 67 67   2 10.4  1.6 Air Force                187 **  -2  6.7  0.4 Fairfield               
 68 68   2 11.0  1.1 Hawaii                   188 **  -2  5.7  1.1 East Tennessee State    
 69 69   2  8.6  2.9 Utah                     189 **  -2  6.8  0.2 Rhode Island            
 70 70   2  8.4  3.0 Duquesne                 190 **  -2  6.7  0.3 Howard                  
 71 71   2 10.1  1.7 Fresno State             191 **  -2  6.0  0.8 Southwest Texas State   
 72 72   2  9.3  2.2 Northeastern             192 **  -2  6.1  0.6 Rutgers                 
 73 73   2  9.3  2.2 Furman                   193 **  -2  7.8 -0.7 Tennessee State         
 74 74   2  9.3  2.1 Fordham                  194 **  -2  7.2 -0.3 Southern Illinois       
 75 75   2  9.8  1.8 Western Illinois         195 **  -2  6.9 -0.1 Georgetown              
 76 76   2  9.9  1.5 Central Florida          196 **  -2  6.5  0.2 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 77 77   2 10.8  0.7 Syracuse                 197 **  -2  9.1 -1.8 Drake                   
 78 78   2  9.2  1.9 Lehigh                   198 **  -2  5.1  1.3 Robert Morris           
 79 79   2  8.2  2.7 Maine                    199 **  -2  7.2 -0.5 Baylor                  
 80 80   2  9.7  1.6 Miami - Ohio             200 **  -2  7.2 -0.5 Elon                    
 81 81   1 10.5  0.9 East Carolina            201 **  -2  6.2  0.2 Southwestern Louisiana  
 82 82   1  8.8  2.1 Mississippi State        202 **  -2  6.4  0.1 Buffalo                 
 83 83   1  7.4  3.0 North Texas              203 **  -2  6.7 -0.2 Northeast Louisiana     
 84 84   1  8.7  2.0 Bethune - Cookman        204 **  -2  4.1  1.9 Monmouth                
 85 85   1  8.4  2.3 Delaware                 205 **  -2  6.4  0.0 Davidson                
 86 86   1  9.0  1.8 Tulane                   206 **  -2  8.0 -1.2 Virginia Military       
 87 87   1  9.5  1.4 Stanford                 207 **  -2  6.9 -0.4 California Poly         
 88 88   1  9.4  1.4 Northern Illinois        208 **  -3  5.4  0.7 Arkansas State          
 89 89   1  9.1  1.6 Hofstra                  209 **  -3  6.2  0.0 Cornell                 
 90 90   1  8.7  1.8 New Mexico               210 **  -3  6.4 -0.2 Florida Atlantic        
 91 91   1  8.6  1.9 Memphis State            211 **  -3  6.2 -0.1 Kent State              
 92 92   1  9.5  1.2 William & Mary           212 **  -3  6.2 -0.1 Delaware State          
 93 93   1  8.1  2.2 Sacred Heart             213 **  -3  7.5 -1.2 Butler                  
 94 94   1 10.4  0.5 Grambling                214 **  -3  6.9 -0.8 Weber State             
 95 95   1  9.8  0.9 Michigan State           215 **  -3  6.1 -0.2 Columbia                
 96 96   1  9.0  1.4 Connecticut              216 **  -3  4.8  0.7 Central Connecticut     
 97 97   1  8.3  2.0 Arizona                  217 **  -3  5.6 -0.1 Mississippi Valley State
 98 98   1  8.6  1.7 North Carolina           218 **  -3  6.5 -0.7 Tulsa                   
 99 99   1  8.8  1.6 Appalachian State        219 **  -3  6.8 -1.0 Army                    
100 **   1  8.5  1.7 Brigham Young            220 **  -3  6.5 -0.7 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
101 **   1  8.0  2.1 Wofford                  221 **  -3  5.4  0.1 Norfolk State           
102 **   1  8.5  1.7 Temple                   222 **  -3  7.4 -1.6 Eastern Michigan        
103 **   0  7.3  2.5 Richmond                 223 **  -3  6.2 -0.6 Texas - El Paso         
104 **   0  8.8  1.3 Harvard                  224 **  -4  6.1 -0.8 Liberty                 
105 **   0  8.4  1.6 Massachusetts            225 **  -4  6.3 -1.0 Austin Peay             
106 **   0  8.0  1.9 Colgate                  226 **  -4  7.0 -1.6 Samford                 
107 **   0  9.5  0.7 Jackson State            227 **  -4  4.9  0.0 Iona                    
108 **   0  8.5  1.5 Western Michigan         228 **  -4  5.8 -0.7 Jacksonville            
109 **   0  9.1  1.0 Nevada - Las Vegas       229 **  -4  7.0 -1.9 Southern Utah           
110 **   0  8.5  1.4 Northwestern State       230 **  -4  3.9  0.3 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
111 **   0  9.6  0.5 Hampton                  231 **  -5  5.3 -1.2 Saint John's            
112 **   0  7.7  1.9 Yale                     232 **  -4  2.8  0.8 Siena                   
113 **   0  8.6  1.2 Morehead State           233 **  -5  5.0 -1.2 Charleston Southern     
114 **   0  8.9  0.8 Nevada - Reno            234 **  -6  4.4 -1.1 Canisius                
115 **   0  8.5  1.1 San Diego State          235 **  -6  5.7 -2.2 Valparaiso              
116 **   0  7.5  1.8 Eastern Kentucky         236 **  -6  5.4 -2.1 La Salle                
117 **   0  8.6  0.9 Alabama - Birmingham     237 **  -6  3.5 -0.6 Prairie View            
118 **   0  7.4  1.8 Idaho State              238 **  -6  4.6 -1.7 Morris Brown            
119 **   0  7.9  1.4 Ball State               239 **  -7  3.1 -1.0 Savannah State          
120 **   0  7.3  1.8 North Carolina A&T       240 **  -8  3.5 -2.0 Tennessee - Martin      

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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