prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 10 Virginia Tech 63 55.8, 220 Arkansas State 7 3.8
87% 4 Nebraska 48 41.1, 64 Arizona State 10 17.2
80% 9 Florida State 38 34.0, 55 Iowa State 31 19.1
75% 47 North Carolina State 34 27.8, 77 New Mexico 14 18.3
62% 59 Colorado State 35 23.9, 90 Virginia 29 20.4
49% 37 Ohio State 45 25.4, 22 Texas Tech 21 25.6
37% 60 Wisconsin 23 27.4, 24 Fresno State 21 31.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 2 0.80 2 1.29 1 1.15 1 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 7 5 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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