prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 45 Michigan State 56 51.5, 225 Eastern Michigan 7 5.4
92% 28 Boston College 24 53.1, 220 Connecticut 16 5.8
92% 3 Nebraska 31 47.4, 104 Troy State 16 5.6
91% 48 Mississippi 31 49.3, 232 Northeast Louisiana 3 6.0
91% 39 Texas A&M 31 43.7, 201 Southwestern Louisiana 7 4.8
91% 6 Tennessee 47 50.9, 163 Wyoming 7 9.5
91% 5 Oklahoma 37 49.7, 195 Tulsa 0 6.0
91% 4 Texas 27 51.9, 137 North Texas 0 6.6
91% 2 Florida 51 46.6, 63 Alabama - Birmingham 3 7.3
91% 1 Miami - Florida 63 58.0, 115 Florida A&M 17 6.9
90% 88 Western Michigan 48 38.6, 216 Indiana State 17 7.7
90% 83 Maine 52 38.6, 208 Central Connecticut 3 9.5
90% 77 West Virginia 56 41.5, 212 Tennessee - Chattanoog 7 10.9
90% 68 Minnesota 42 37.1, 194 Southwest Texas State 0 6.8
90% 47 Purdue 51 42.2, 176 Illinois State 10 11.7
90% 43 Pittsburgh 27 37.2, 166 Ohio 14 7.1
90% 24 North Carolina State 34 36.4, 149 East Tennessee State 0 5.6
90% 20 South Carolina 34 42.6, 159 New Mexico State 24 9.7
89% 57 South Florida 51 46.0, 227 Florida Atlantic 10 8.7
89% 22 Washington State 31 48.9, 168 Nevada - Reno 7 16.9
88% 64 Villanova 37 45.1, 223 Rutgers 19 15.0
88% 51 Lehigh 37 41.6, 206 Buffalo 26 10.8
88% 33 Oregon State 49 34.5, 127 Eastern Kentucky 10 9.3
88% 30 Iowa 57 42.4, 145 Akron 21 16.7
88% 18 Georgia Tech 45 42.4, 131 Vanderbilt 3 16.4
88% 7 Oregon 36 37.7, 80 Mississippi State 13 12.4
87% 79 Memphis State 52 37.4, 175 Murray State 6 15.2
87% 58 Boise State 38 48.3, 182 Idaho 21 21.1
87% 36 Southern Mississippi 55 39.9, 132 Jackson State 7 15.9
86% 17 Utah 23 38.8, 146 Utah State 3 15.6
86% 9 Kansas State 48 29.2, 71 Western Kentucky 3 7.0
85% 44 Iowa State 45 39.5, 143 Kansas 3 16.4
84% 94 Bethune - Cookman 41 35.5, 231 Savannah State 9 10.8
84% 67 Toledo 44 35.2, 153 California Poly 16 16.5
84% 12 Florida State 40 47.2, 107 Virginia 19 22.9
83% 120 Western Carolina 23 37.7, 226 Liberty 3 18.6
83% 101 New Mexico 38 38.4, 187 Weber State 24 18.7
83% 53 Fresno State 16 30.9, 119 San Diego State 14 13.5
81% 142 San Jose State 33 38.7, 222 Arkansas State 14 21.1
80% 123 Western Illinois 64 36.8, 178 Drake 7 21.8
80% 35 Marshall 50 40.1, 92 Appalachian State 17 24.1
80% 25 Alabama 39 34.3, 84 Middle Tennessee State 34 19.2
78% 78 Arizona 37 38.1, 129 Northern Arizona 3 24.5
77% 169 Texas - El Paso 42 38.8, 213 Sacramento State 12 26.7
77% 11 Michigan 31 31.1, 37 Washington 29 20.0
76% 85 Arizona State 38 40.6, 147 Eastern Washington 2 27.4
76% 60 Indiana 25 35.4, 91 William & Mary 17 24.6
75% 76 Bowling Green 41 25.7, 112 Tennessee Tech 7 16.4
74% 192 Gardner - Webb 28 38.7, 219 Morgan State 24 29.0
73% 16 Georgia 31 27.7, 34 Clemson 28 19.3
71% 29 Southern California 24 22.1, 56 Auburn 17 15.2
70% 144 Kent State 34 33.2, 160 New Hampshire 7 25.7
68% 31 Wisconsin 27 26.2, 81 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 19.6
67% 199 Alcorn State 34 21.7, 214 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 24 16.1
67% 179 Delaware State 16 28.9, 229 Morris Brown 10 20.9
67% 133 Portland State 31 28.7, 152 Stephen F. Austin 23 23.0
67% 70 Hawaii 61 41.3, 90 Eastern Illinois 36 34.1
64% 170 Montana State 27 22.3, 177 Saint Mary's 24 17.9
63% 148 California 70 27.1, 155 Baylor 22 23.2
61% 10 Virginia Tech 26 29.2, 14 Louisiana State 8 25.5
60% 204 Texas Southern 44 19.0, 230 Prairie View 14 16.3
59% 82 Louisiana Tech 39 27.7, 72 Oklahoma State 36 26.0
59% 61 Penn State 27 21.7, 52 Central Florida 24 20.0
56% 97 Air Force 52 36.3, 89 Northwestern 3 35.0
55% 32 Notre Dame 22 21.4, 38 Maryland 0 20.4
50% 23 Brigham Young 42 28.3, 15 Syracuse 21 28.4
38% 171 Jacksonville State 20 21.5, 139 Alabama A&M 17 24.8
38% 113 Northern Illinois 42 26.8, 75 Wake Forest 41 30.6
38% 106 McNeese State 52 20.7, 74 Grambling 20 24.1
38% 86 Cincinnati 36 23.1, 62 Texas Christian 29 26.4
35% 128 Tulane 37 24.4, 108 Southern 19 29.5
33% 65 Montana 21 27.3, 59 Hofstra 0 33.6
32% 141 Temple 34 11.3, 93 Richmond 7 17.7
29% 161 Hampton 31 18.9, 140 James Madison 28 26.2
29% 96 Delaware 22 17.9, 42 Georgia Southern 19 25.5
28% 228 Florida International 27 10.7, 130 Saint Peter's 3 20.2
27% 183 Central Michigan 34 24.6, 116 Sam Houston State 10 33.6
27% 46 Colorado State 19 25.6, 13 Colorado 14 35.4
26% 180 South Carolina State 26 22.4, 121 Tennessee State 20 31.6
24% 235 Virginia Military 27 19.6, 221 Charleston Southern 24 29.7
24% 181 Navy 38 14.3, 135 Southern Methodist 7 23.8
19% 109 Missouri 33 20.5, 27 Illinois 20 37.2
19% 105 Miami - Ohio 27 15.9, 41 North Carolina 21 30.5
18% 184 Houston 24 20.0, 117 Rice 10 37.3
14% 209 Duke 23 21.3, 40 East Carolina 16 53.3
14% 103 Kentucky 22 15.6, 19 Louisville 17 36.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 1.47 15 0.82 19 0.78 34 0.99 12 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 86 65 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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