prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 6 Nebraska 44 52.2, 156 Utah State 13 7.4
92% 5 Kansas State 68 54.9, 218 Northeast Louisiana 0 0.2
91% 57 Toledo 65 48.4, 228 Eastern Michigan 13 11.9
91% 46 Dayton 39 58.7, 239 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 5.1
91% 39 Michigan State 27 39.7, 165 Rice 10 9.1
91% 19 Montana 45 39.9, 168 Albany 7 3.7
91% 12 Georgia Tech 31 47.1, 180 Connecticut 14 8.1
91% 11 Ohio State 51 42.3, 115 Kent State 17 8.8
90% 23 Iowa State 58 40.1, 128 Tennessee Tech 6 9.6
90% 21 Louisiana State 35 38.3, 145 The Citadel 10 4.5
89% 73 Lehigh 69 43.2, 201 Georgetown 0 14.7
89% 33 Washington State 49 46.6, 173 Idaho 14 16.8
89% 18 Colorado 34 35.6, 113 San Diego State 14 9.4
88% 41 Minnesota 35 38.7, 184 Southwestern Louisiana 11 13.3
88% 8 Tennessee 26 46.1, 87 Middle Tennessee State 3 20.7
87% 138 Tennessee State 41 41.5, 235 Prairie View 8 11.8
87% 95 Bethune - Cookman 30 37.6, 225 Florida Atlantic 17 11.6
87% 62 Georgia Southern 56 48.5, 200 Gardner - Webb 0 19.3
87% 17 North Carolina State 65 35.6, 122 Navy 19 11.0
86% 10 Oregon 28 37.6, 64 Fresno State 24 16.8
86% 4 Oklahoma 37 28.0, 32 Alabama 27 8.7
85% 38 Washington 34 45.3, 135 San Jose State 10 21.1
84% 152 Massachusetts 52 32.5, 223 Central Connecticut 3 14.7
84% 112 Florida A&M 64 38.8, 230 Morris Brown 6 10.7
83% 91 Maryland 44 35.6, 157 Akron 14 17.2
83% 71 Texas Tech 24 37.0, 191 Southern Methodist 14 15.2
83% 67 Kentucky 77 38.9, 137 Texas - El Paso 17 18.9
83% 15 Michigan 35 34.5, 86 Western Michigan 12 14.7
82% 124 Alabama State 41 39.1, 220 Tennessee - Chattanoog 23 22.5
82% 123 Fordham 43 26.3, 199 Saint Peter's 0 8.9
82% 120 North Texas 23 25.5, 196 Nicholls State 0 7.5
82% 90 Nevada - Las Vegas 31 30.4, 144 Kansas 20 15.3
82% 68 Missouri 41 33.5, 134 Ball State 6 16.6
81% 35 Air Force 38 36.5, 99 New Mexico 31 19.8
80% 209 Iona 14 27.2, 236 Siena 7 12.9
80% 183 Saint Mary's 20 32.9, 224 Sacramento State 12 18.4
80% 96 North Carolina A&T 42 39.9, 164 Jackson State 36 24.9
80% 16 Utah 40 24.2, 69 Indiana 13 9.3
80% 9 Notre Dame 24 22.2, 36 Purdue 17 7.9
79% 211 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 36 34.1, 238 Mississippi Valley Sta 30 19.5
79% 179 Delaware State 41 30.5, 229 Savannah State 9 13.8
79% 117 Grambling 41 40.6, 194 Alcorn State 35 23.5
79% 77 Texas Christian 48 36.1, 166 Northwestern 24 21.0
79% 52 Louisville 40 32.8, 159 Duke 3 13.9
79% 27 Oregon State 35 29.5, 97 Temple 3 15.7
79% 22 Southern Mississippi 23 29.2, 66 Illinois 20 15.2
78% 231 Saint John's 17 27.1, 237 Canisius 14 15.3
78% 26 Wisconsin 34 28.9, 60 West Virginia 17 16.4
77% 25 Iowa 29 32.4, 85 Miami - Ohio 24 20.7
76% 51 Auburn 56 24.9, 106 Western Carolina 0 13.0
75% 190 Towson 49 26.1, 212 Morgan State 28 17.1
75% 84 California 34 42.6, 126 New Mexico State 13 30.7
75% 13 Brigham Young 35 50.7, 43 Hawaii 32 38.2
73% 110 Northwestern State 30 22.2, 133 Southern 20 14.0
73% 75 Duquesne 35 24.5, 108 Bucknell 14 16.4
73% 63 Maine 27 27.8, 92 William & Mary 14 19.4
73% 37 Clemson 33 45.1, 79 Louisiana Tech 13 35.0
72% 50 Arkansas 41 27.8, 72 Boise State 14 19.6
71% 162 James Madison 20 28.9, 181 New Hampshire 14 20.9
71% 55 South Florida 37 41.3, 88 Northern Illinois 6 32.0
68% 83 Alabama - Birmingham 27 21.8, 105 Troy State 26 15.3
67% 197 Wagner 42 26.7, 226 La Salle 7 21.1
67% 141 Central Michigan 32 26.6, 155 Wyoming 20 20.5
67% 89 Oklahoma State 45 30.0, 101 Northern Iowa 10 23.6
66% 80 Villanova 20 34.4, 116 Colgate 0 28.6
64% 161 Elon 23 20.9, 177 Florida International 22 14.9
64% 154 Stephen F. Austin 30 25.5, 167 Montana State 13 21.0
64% 28 California - Los Angel 30 22.5, 29 Colorado State 19 17.8
63% 47 Arizona State 46 24.1, 59 Central Florida 13 19.7
62% 103 Tulane 34 37.1, 136 Houston 13 32.4
61% 160 Morehead State 27 23.4, 192 Valparaiso 17 20.3
61% 58 McNeese State 28 25.9, 93 Youngstown State 13 22.8
59% 186 Buffalo 34 20.5, 215 Rutgers 11 18.5
59% 121 Northeastern 31 18.1, 148 Ohio 0 16.4
57% 188 Southeast Missouri Sta 21 22.2, 208 Southern Illinois 14 20.9
56% 98 Wake Forest 27 31.2, 94 East Carolina 22 29.9
56% 61 Mississippi 38 24.3, 56 Memphis State 16 23.1
54% 150 Holy Cross 30 24.7, 176 Army 21 24.0
53% 119 Hofstra 37 20.4, 102 Rhode Island 19 19.7
51% 210 Baylor 50 31.4, 207 Samford 12 31.2
40% 131 Southwest Missouri Sta 28 27.7, 132 Hampton 26 30.3
39% 227 Virginia Military 41 18.7, 206 Davidson 16 21.8
38% 171 Northern Arizona 31 18.7, 172 California Poly 24 22.3
36% 53 Texas A&M 14 13.5, 54 Pittsburgh 12 17.7
36% 2 Miami - Florida 41 26.6, 1 Florida 16 31.7
31% 216 Howard 34 21.0, 174 Texas Southern 31 28.4
31% 78 Boston College 34 23.3, 30 Stanford 27 31.1
29% 130 Richmond 15 12.5, 82 Delaware 13 20.5
28% 65 North Carolina 30 15.4, 34 Syracuse 22 23.8
27% 234 Arkansas State 21 16.1, 203 Tulsa 19 24.8
27% 187 Lafayette 30 13.9, 125 Monmouth 29 22.2
24% 109 Virginia 34 19.9, 40 South Carolina 21 29.9
14% 163 Vanderbilt 49 13.0, 45 Furman 18 33.6
13% 195 Marist 38 9.4, 49 Sacred Heart 27 36.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 1.80 19 0.98 29 1.09 29 1.10 9 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 94 80 1.12
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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