rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 2 Florida over 191 Ohio 68 Illinois over 217 Arkansas State 4 Kansas State over 111 Eastern Illinois 109 Bethune - Cookman over 235 Morris Brown 44 McNeese State over 233 Northeast Louisiana 7 Oklahoma over 199 Texas - El Paso 12 Oregon over 168 Idaho 66 Duquesne over 230 Siena 1 Miami - Florida over 122 Temple 34 Texas Christian over 172 Southern Methodist 80-90% chance of victory: 3 Virginia Tech over 21 Marshall 196 Albany over 237 Central Connecticut 16 Auburn over 91 Vanderbilt 81 Furman over 166 Elon 144 Hampton over 209 Howard 129 James Madison over 220 Florida Atlantic 146 Fairfield over 234 La Salle 26 Louisiana State over 87 Miami - Ohio 97 Louisiana Tech over 198 Tulsa 137 Marist over 236 Canisius 79 Mississippi State over 161 Jacksonville State 18 Brigham Young over 163 Nevada - Reno 15 North Carolina State over 64 Wake Forest 22 Oregon State over 100 Nevada - Las Vegas 8 Nebraska over 58 Penn State 30 Arizona State over 107 San Diego State 19 Southern Mississippi over 70 Memphis State 27 Stanford over 138 San Jose State 89 Troy State over 150 Southern Utah 104 William & Mary over 192 Virginia Military 24 Wisconsin over 114 Northern Illinois 96 Florida A&M over 222 Morgan State 70-80% chance of victory: 32 Alabama over 90 North Texas 113 Alabama State over 187 Texas Southern 116 Appalachian State over 148 Eastern Kentucky 13 Utah over 72 Arizona 136 Southern over 210 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 169 Ball State over 213 Indiana State 61 Dayton over 110 Robert Morris 176 Southeast Missouri State over 225 Eastern Michigan 78 Fordham over 118 Colgate 141 Holy Cross over 205 Georgetown 6 Iowa State over 38 Iowa 120 Kent State over 171 California Poly 57 Kentucky over 88 Indiana 9 Florida State over 59 Maryland 46 Michigan State over 85 California 101 Sacred Heart over 153 Monmouth 190 Murray State over 207 Southern Illinois 76 Hofstra over 165 New Hampshire 112 New Mexico over 158 Baylor 5 Texas over 48 North Carolina 10 Ohio State over 31 Washington State 55 Purdue over 92 Western Michigan 183 Army over 229 Rutgers 23 Georgia over 80 South Carolina 195 Stony Brook over 227 Saint John's 53 Syracuse over 99 Rhode Island 193 Tennessee Tech over 224 Tennessee - Chattanooga 83 Delaware over 140 The Citadel 121 Utah State over 202 Idaho State 155 Wagner over 211 Iona 98 Boise State over 185 Wyoming 60-70% chance of victory: 47 Arkansas over 45 South Florida 37 Missouri over 69 Bowling Green 181 Buffalo over 188 Connecticut 36 Clemson over 40 Georgia Tech 28 Colorado over 41 Southern California 42 Colorado State over 62 Louisville 186 Jacksonville over 218 Davidson 103 Northwestern State over 154 Delaware State 84 East Carolina over 106 Tulane 177 East Tennessee State over 204 Gardner - Webb 178 Houston over 194 Southwestern Louisiana 133 Kansas over 135 Southwest Missouri State 152 Lafayette over 180 Towson 214 Norfolk State over 228 Savannah State 167 Northwestern over 182 Duke 93 North Carolina A&T over 132 Portland State 231 Saint Peter's over 239 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 119 Bucknell over 164 Saint Mary's 206 Samford over 208 Nicholls State 130 Wofford over 162 South Carolina State 123 Tennessee State over 156 Jackson State 50-60% chance of victory: 149 Akron over 126 Central Michigan 75 Pittsburgh over 94 Alabama - Birmingham 139 Alabama A&M over 127 Grambling 82 Cincinnati over 73 West Virginia 184 Florida International over 170 Butler 60 Minnesota over 43 Toledo 125 Sam Houston State over 142 Northern Arizona 20 Notre Dame over 17 Michigan 25 California - Los Angeles over 51 Oklahoma State 49 Mississippi over 67 Texas Tech 65 Villanova over 54 Maine 95 Western Kentucky over 77 Western Illinois
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