prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 106 Robert Morris 14 45.5, 232 Central Connecticut 0 8.8
92% 68 Maryland 45 49.4, 223 Eastern Michigan 3 5.5
92% 61 Maine 42 43.7, 224 Howard 12 6.1
92% 59 Pittsburgh 23 40.6, 197 Rutgers 3 4.3
92% 56 Dayton 42 44.0, 220 Austin Peay 0 6.9
92% 47 Minnesota 41 45.6, 203 Buffalo 17 6.0
92% 36 Washington State 45 42.5, 177 Montana State 28 7.6
92% 31 Washington 38 48.3, 182 Wyoming 7 11.8
92% 26 Clemson 30 47.2, 189 Ball State 7 7.1
92% 12 Montana 13 54.0, 192 Idaho State 9 3.9
92% 7 Texas 41 53.7, 158 Houston 11 7.4
92% 6 Florida State 48 57.4, 173 Duke 17 7.1
92% 1 Miami - Florida 38 52.8, 64 Boston College 6 9.7
91% 63 Hawaii 31 55.0, 210 Texas - El Paso 6 25.0
91% 42 Louisville 45 47.9, 219 Army 14 8.9
91% 14 Oregon 41 46.5, 120 Portland State 0 16.2
90% 52 Lehigh 31 39.2, 149 Princeton 24 15.1
89% 72 Villanova 45 42.9, 184 New Hampshire 3 16.9
89% 46 Oklahoma State 52 31.9, 144 Southern Methodist 16 7.1
89% 41 Iowa 48 46.1, 142 Utah State 7 21.2
89% 9 Iowa State 42 39.7, 77 Troy State 12 17.0
88% 181 Sam Houston State 45 46.4, 238 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 18.7
88% 67 Virginia 48 43.7, 167 Akron 29 20.3
85% 153 Alabama A&M 15 29.6, 231 Prairie View 12 8.8
85% 22 Georgia 45 30.7, 95 Northwestern State 7 10.5
84% 133 Colgate 30 34.7, 212 Dartmouth 26 14.9
84% 60 Toledo 38 38.2, 125 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 20.6
84% 5 Virginia Tech 13 27.2, 35 Texas A&M 3 10.4
83% 43 Mississippi 45 38.9, 108 Vanderbilt 38 22.4
83% 27 Western Illinois 29 35.9, 118 Northern Illinois 26 18.5
83% 10 Ohio State 23 38.1, 81 Cincinnati 19 21.6
82% 227 Samford 41 36.2, 240 Tennessee - Martin 10 17.6
82% 174 South Carolina State 50 24.9, 234 Savannah State 12 8.0
82% 66 Texas Christian 16 23.3, 117 North Texas 10 9.4
82% 19 Penn State 49 39.9, 71 Louisiana Tech 17 24.0
81% 126 Bucknell 14 31.9, 186 Cornell 3 16.6
81% 121 Appalachian State 29 37.7, 221 Liberty 22 18.9
81% 116 Wagner 17 33.1, 183 Stony Brook 14 17.8
81% 34 Marshall 26 40.5, 88 Central Florida 21 25.5
80% 76 Duquesne 36 23.5, 135 Marist 0 7.9
80% 44 Bowling Green 39 36.2, 130 Kansas 16 21.8
80% 15 Oregon State 59 33.7, 45 Fresno State 19 19.3
80% 4 Kansas State 27 31.7, 16 Southern California 20 15.8
79% 147 Eastern Kentucky 22 28.5, 204 Florida Atlantic 6 13.0
79% 74 South Carolina 42 24.5, 119 Temple 21 12.5
79% 73 Pennsylvania 52 31.6, 155 Lafayette 21 17.3
78% 168 Baylor 37 28.5, 214 Tulsa 25 16.2
77% 162 East Tennessee State 35 28.0, 201 Virginia Military 21 16.3
77% 69 Furman 17 24.7, 129 Richmond 7 14.6
77% 39 Kentucky 44 39.8, 78 Middle Tennessee State 22 28.3
76% 217 Saint Peter's 55 19.3, 229 La Salle 2 9.2
76% 152 Southwest Missouri Sta 28 33.0, 190 Southeast Missouri Sta 21 21.7
76% 87 Florida A&M 20 40.5, 170 Delaware State 18 27.4
75% 230 Siena 18 18.9, 239 Canisius 11 9.6
75% 171 Tennessee Tech 62 20.0, 196 Valparaiso 10 9.6
74% 151 Nicholls State 14 31.1, 188 Jacksonville State 6 20.9
74% 11 North Carolina State 51 37.8, 49 Texas Tech 48 28.5
73% 150 Eastern Illinois 26 38.8, 191 Indiana State 19 27.7
73% 109 Northeastern 42 23.3, 137 Massachusetts 17 15.7
72% 24 Notre Dame 21 25.5, 83 Michigan State 17 16.9
70% 111 Northern Iowa 31 31.3, 134 Stephen F. Austin 24 23.8
70% 100 Indiana 39 27.5, 123 Central Michigan 29 19.6
70% 97 Miami - Ohio 27 28.3, 115 Kent State 20 21.0
70% 17 Michigan 10 22.8, 32 Utah 7 15.8
69% 127 Nevada - Reno 31 24.2, 146 Rice 21 17.5
68% 80 Memphis State 38 31.6, 94 Tulane 10 24.9
67% 38 Wisconsin 31 27.2, 54 Arizona 10 20.8
67% 3 Florida 30 27.1, 8 Tennessee 13 20.6
66% 90 Bethune - Cookman 31 24.4, 113 Florida International 0 18.7
64% 164 Yale 49 25.3, 175 San Diego 14 20.6
63% 114 Grambling 49 33.4, 138 Tennessee State 14 28.9
59% 58 Georgia Tech 28 29.1, 53 Brigham Young 19 27.2
59% 33 Auburn 42 21.6, 57 Mississippi State 14 19.7
58% 187 Illinois State 24 34.1, 178 Murray State 23 32.6
56% 101 Harvard 28 27.1, 96 Holy Cross 23 25.7
55% 141 Eastern Washington 49 32.7, 163 Southern Utah 14 31.7
50% 139 Jackson State 36 28.5, 140 Southern 14 28.4
43% 180 Connecticut 37 15.4, 161 Ohio 19 16.6
42% 207 Gardner - Webb 26 21.9, 209 Tennessee - Chattanoog 24 23.6
39% 211 Southwest Texas State 17 17.8, 185 Texas Southern 10 20.8
39% 148 Northwestern 49 28.8, 143 Navy 40 32.0
37% 28 Alabama 20 19.6, 13 Southern Mississippi 7 24.0
33% 237 Iona 20 11.4, 235 Saint John's 6 16.2
33% 169 Idaho 48 27.2, 124 San Diego State 38 33.6
33% 50 Air Force 23 31.6, 37 California 21 37.3
30% 218 Sacramento State 27 24.4, 179 California Poly 17 31.8
30% 159 Alcorn State 27 30.4, 128 Hampton 23 37.2
29% 160 Western Kentucky 13 9.4, 99 Youngstown State 7 17.7
28% 226 Arkansas State 33 12.9, 216 Northeast Louisiana 21 21.6
24% 172 New Mexico State 24 22.7, 104 New Mexico 13 33.0
23% 165 Western Carolina 37 12.8, 122 The Citadel 34 22.8
23% 91 Wake Forest 24 18.7, 51 Purdue 21 30.2
21% 79 Colorado 31 17.7, 29 California - Los Angel 17 32.2
20% 193 Towson 56 21.9, 98 Brown 42 37.7
17% 222 Morgan State 35 15.3, 136 Monmouth 20 33.3
15% 228 Georgetown 21 19.6, 145 Fairfield 3 37.4
15% 205 Southwestern Louisiana 34 13.4, 86 Alabama - Birmingham 0 35.7
15% 199 Columbia 13 18.5, 85 Fordham 11 38.6
12% 166 James Madison 24 11.6, 70 Hofstra 21 35.5
12% 154 San Jose State 38 19.7, 48 Illinois 35 44.5
11% 200 Albany 38 16.1, 84 Sacred Heart 17 42.8
11% 131 Wofford 14 8.6, 40 Georgia Southern 7 32.4
10% 213 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 32 19.1, 103 Alabama State 26 44.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 1.33 17 0.80 28 0.99 34 0.87 16 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 103 77 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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