rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 34 Southern Mississippi over 226 Army 71 Bethune - Cookman over 209 Norfolk State 68 Central Florida over 215 Liberty 19 Georgia over 157 New Mexico State 25 Hawaii over 147 Southern Methodist 15 North Carolina State over 161 Massachusetts 4 Oklahoma over 77 South Florida 11 Tennessee over 176 Rutgers 17 Washington over 153 Idaho 3 Virginia Tech over 83 Western Michigan 80-90% chance of victory: 60 Memphis State over 140 Alabama - Birmingham 87 Boise State over 170 Utah State 41 Boston College over 132 Central Michigan 189 Saint Peter's over 240 Canisius 2 Florida over 43 Kentucky 141 Idaho State over 205 Sacramento State 107 Jackson State over 234 Mississippi Valley State 45 Villanova over 125 James Madison 24 Louisiana State over 90 Mississippi State 36 Maine over 120 Rhode Island 54 McNeese State over 117 Western Kentucky 84 Middle Tennessee State over 184 Southeast Missouri State 95 North Carolina A&T over 168 Elon 14 Ohio State over 91 Indiana 75 Fresno State over 179 Rice 121 Sacred Heart over 235 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 35 California - Los Angeles over 126 San Diego State 136 San Jose State over 220 Texas - El Paso 88 Georgia Southern over 217 Tennessee - Chattanooga 116 Tennessee Tech over 201 Jacksonville State 48 Texas A&M over 98 Louisiana Tech 6 Texas over 112 Tulane 52 Furman over 207 Virginia Military 66 Western Illinois over 162 Sam Houston State 85 Florida A&M over 164 Tennessee State 70-80% chance of victory: 7 Florida State over 28 Louisville 46 Texas Tech over 115 New Mexico 97 Miami - Ohio over 178 Akron 65 Arizona over 104 North Texas 229 Arkansas State over 239 Tennessee - Martin 130 Bucknell over 177 Delaware State 108 Northern Iowa over 194 California Poly 230 Central Connecticut over 233 Saint John's 144 Colgate over 197 Columbia 38 Dayton over 59 Duquesne 148 Eastern Illinois over 198 Illinois State 111 Fordham over 183 Fairfield 123 Florida International over 196 Georgetown 106 Holy Cross over 150 Towson 12 Michigan over 70 Illinois 9 Iowa State over 27 Nebraska 200 Jacksonville over 228 Austin Peay 219 Siena over 236 La Salle 89 Michigan State over 135 Northwestern 55 Colorado State over 109 Nevada - Reno 99 Northern Illinois over 124 Kent State 190 Ohio over 210 Buffalo 10 Penn State over 33 Iowa 138 Princeton over 180 Lafayette 134 Robert Morris over 192 Monmouth 86 Youngstown State over 156 Southwest Missouri State 133 Kansas over 213 Tulsa 30 Utah over 62 Air Force 72 West Virginia over 96 East Carolina 60-70% chance of victory: 131 Appalachian State over 137 The Citadel 32 Arizona State over 31 Stanford 22 Arkansas over 23 Alabama 18 Auburn over 21 Syracuse 158 Connecticut over 175 Ball State 129 Yale over 191 Cornell 182 New Hampshire over 216 Dartmouth 74 Maryland over 81 Wofford 80 Missouri over 92 Troy State 163 Morehead State over 186 Butler 232 Howard over 238 Morris Brown 167 Navy over 174 Duke 26 Georgia Tech over 57 North Carolina 119 Northern Arizona over 122 Portland State 50 Toledo over 94 Pittsburgh 145 Nicholls State over 173 Southern 5 Oregon State over 16 Southern California 202 Southwest Texas State over 212 Southern Utah 149 Albany over 193 Stony Brook 82 Cincinnati over 114 Temple 67 South Carolina over 100 Vanderbilt 61 Wake Forest over 64 Virginia 166 Western Carolina over 160 East Tennessee State 101 William & Mary over 102 Delaware 50-60% chance of victory: 143 Alabama State over 165 Alcorn State 118 Brown over 110 Harvard 51 California over 39 Washington State 211 Southern Illinois over 225 Eastern Michigan 185 Indiana State over 172 Murray State 146 Wagner over 181 Marist 93 Northeastern over 76 Hofstra 69 Lehigh over 79 Pennsylvania 40 Minnesota over 63 Purdue 171 Alabama A&M over 199 Texas Southern
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