prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 71 Bethune - Cookman 49 40.8, 209 Norfolk State 7 8.9
92% 34 Southern Mississippi 27 52.2, 226 Army 6 8.0
92% 25 Hawaii 42 42.3, 147 Southern Methodist 10 8.3
92% 19 Georgia 41 43.4, 157 New Mexico State 10 6.3
92% 17 Washington 41 56.0, 153 Idaho 27 21.3
92% 15 North Carolina State 56 54.1, 161 Massachusetts 24 16.9
92% 11 Tennessee 35 41.6, 176 Rutgers 14 2.2
92% 4 Oklahoma 31 42.8, 77 South Florida 14 14.0
91% 68 Central Florida 48 45.0, 215 Liberty 17 8.1
91% 3 Virginia Tech 30 39.6, 83 Western Michigan 0 12.1
90% 52 Furman 55 47.4, 207 Virginia Military 28 19.0
89% 121 Sacred Heart 28 45.8, 235 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 14.0
89% 107 Jackson State 36 56.9, 234 Mississippi Valley Sta 12 18.2
89% 36 Maine 31 33.6, 120 Rhode Island 14 8.6
88% 66 Western Illinois 41 38.4, 162 Sam Houston State 13 14.5
88% 41 Boston College 43 36.7, 132 Central Michigan 0 11.9
88% 14 Ohio State 45 37.5, 91 Indiana 17 15.4
87% 189 Saint Peter's 35 40.0, 240 Canisius 3 11.2
87% 88 Georgia Southern 38 28.7, 217 Tennessee - Chattanoog 10 6.1
87% 87 Boise State 63 39.6, 170 Utah State 38 19.6
87% 54 McNeese State 38 25.1, 117 Western Kentucky 13 6.8
87% 2 Florida 41 41.5, 43 Kentucky 34 17.5
86% 6 Texas 49 49.8, 112 Tulane 0 20.6
85% 136 San Jose State 58 41.5, 220 Texas - El Paso 24 21.7
85% 35 California - Los Angel 43 36.2, 126 San Diego State 7 17.7
85% 24 Louisiana State 31 32.8, 90 Mississippi State 13 13.9
84% 95 North Carolina A&T 34 34.8, 168 Elon 20 17.2
83% 45 Villanova 30 30.1, 125 James Madison 26 13.4
82% 141 Idaho State 32 37.7, 205 Sacramento State 24 21.5
81% 85 Florida A&M 37 37.3, 164 Tennessee State 24 21.7
81% 75 Fresno State 31 35.5, 179 Rice 28 19.4
81% 48 Texas A&M 31 31.4, 98 Louisiana Tech 3 16.5
80% 89 Michigan State 39 41.0, 135 Northwestern 24 26.5
79% 229 Arkansas State 30 34.9, 239 Tennessee - Martin 10 16.1
79% 65 Arizona 14 23.6, 104 North Texas 9 11.4
79% 46 Texas Tech 49 33.1, 115 New Mexico 0 19.2
79% 9 Iowa State 36 29.9, 27 Nebraska 14 17.5
78% 134 Robert Morris 15 20.9, 192 Monmouth 10 8.7
78% 133 Kansas 43 30.5, 213 Tulsa 33 19.5
78% 123 Florida International 27 24.9, 196 Georgetown 2 9.2
78% 108 Northern Iowa 29 35.7, 194 California Poly 26 23.8
78% 12 Michigan 45 35.5, 70 Illinois 28 22.4
77% 144 Colgate 38 28.7, 197 Columbia 6 16.9
77% 97 Miami - Ohio 48 36.1, 178 Akron 31 24.9
77% 55 Colorado State 32 33.1, 109 Nevada - Reno 28 21.6
76% 130 Bucknell 27 23.7, 177 Delaware State 13 13.4
75% 148 Eastern Illinois 45 41.3, 198 Illinois State 10 30.5
75% 138 Princeton 34 30.4, 180 Lafayette 19 20.8
75% 99 Northern Illinois 13 33.2, 124 Kent State 6 23.6
75% 86 Youngstown State 24 28.0, 156 Southwest Missouri Sta 17 18.7
74% 111 Fordham 51 27.8, 183 Fairfield 6 18.6
72% 230 Central Connecticut 16 16.3, 233 Saint John's 8 7.5
72% 190 Ohio 34 24.1, 210 Buffalo 32 15.7
71% 72 West Virginia 37 29.8, 96 East Carolina 17 22.3
69% 129 Yale 50 29.2, 191 Cornell 23 21.7
68% 163 Morehead State 53 33.3, 186 Butler 20 26.2
67% 82 Cincinnati 35 28.4, 114 Temple 22 22.7
67% 74 Maryland 37 20.1, 81 Wofford 8 14.6
66% 182 New Hampshire 29 33.0, 216 Dartmouth 26 27.2
66% 80 Missouri 44 31.6, 92 Troy State 7 26.4
65% 202 Southwest Texas State 49 20.5, 212 Southern Utah 19 15.2
64% 67 South Carolina 20 30.4, 100 Vanderbilt 14 25.3
64% 26 Georgia Tech 21 24.6, 57 North Carolina 13 19.9
63% 131 Appalachian State 37 30.0, 137 The Citadel 28 25.6
62% 119 Northern Arizona 14 26.7, 122 Portland State 10 23.4
62% 101 William & Mary 45 29.5, 102 Delaware 42 26.1
61% 32 Arizona State 65 35.3, 31 Stanford 24 32.7
61% 18 Auburn 37 26.1, 21 Syracuse 34 22.8
60% 232 Howard 49 19.3, 238 Morris Brown 15 16.6
60% 145 Nicholls State 21 16.7, 173 Southern 13 14.4
58% 171 Alabama A&M 21 20.5, 199 Texas Southern 14 18.9
56% 185 Indiana State 34 22.9, 172 Murray State 31 21.7
52% 93 Northeastern 28 26.8, 76 Hofstra 17 26.4
49% 79 Pennsylvania 24 23.7, 69 Lehigh 21 24.0
46% 165 Alcorn State 48 32.4, 143 Alabama State 37 33.2
46% 110 Harvard 26 31.8, 118 Brown 24 32.8
45% 39 Washington State 48 28.3, 51 California 38 29.3
42% 225 Eastern Michigan 48 21.3, 211 Southern Illinois 45 23.0
42% 63 Purdue 28 20.3, 40 Minnesota 15 21.9
41% 181 Marist 31 16.5, 146 Wagner 16 18.2
39% 193 Stony Brook 24 18.3, 149 Albany 20 21.2
39% 160 East Tennessee State 27 17.5, 166 Western Carolina 7 20.4
38% 174 Duke 43 25.4, 167 Navy 17 29.1
38% 64 Virginia 38 27.3, 61 Wake Forest 34 30.8
36% 23 Alabama 30 18.2, 22 Arkansas 12 22.6
34% 16 Southern California 22 22.4, 5 Oregon State 0 28.3
33% 175 Ball State 24 17.0, 158 Connecticut 21 22.0
33% 94 Pittsburgh 37 24.6, 50 Toledo 19 30.9
26% 28 Louisville 26 23.5, 7 Florida State 20 32.1
25% 236 La Salle 28 6.1, 219 Siena 21 14.8
25% 62 Air Force 30 15.2, 30 Utah 26 24.1
24% 150 Towson 42 21.5, 106 Holy Cross 10 33.1
24% 59 Duquesne 35 11.4, 38 Dayton 28 19.3
23% 228 Austin Peay 20 16.4, 200 Jacksonville 16 27.8
21% 33 Iowa 42 21.6, 10 Penn State 35 35.0
20% 140 Alabama - Birmingham 31 12.8, 60 Memphis State 17 28.0
17% 201 Jacksonville State 35 16.6, 116 Tennessee Tech 29 36.1
16% 184 Southeast Missouri Sta 24 19.5, 84 Middle Tennessee State 14 42.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.54 24 1.04 29 0.99 25 1.03 10 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 98 73 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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