rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 81 Texas Christian over 208 Army 69 Bethune - Cookman over 206 Delaware State 91 Harvard over 207 Cornell 143 Marist over 237 Saint John's 32 Marshall over 201 Buffalo 31 Mississippi over 196 Arkansas State 17 Ohio State over 112 San Jose State 188 Southern over 235 Mississippi Valley State 113 Southeast Missouri State over 240 Tennessee - Martin 36 Boise State over 209 Tulsa 57 Dayton over 229 Valparaiso 53 Montana over 199 Weber State 80-90% chance of victory: 1 Virginia Tech over 37 Boston College 46 Texas A&M over 162 Baylor 15 Bowling Green over 155 Central Michigan 62 Colorado State over 164 Wyoming 102 Yale over 212 Dartmouth 200 Fairfield over 232 Iona 140 Florida A&M over 220 Howard 100 Youngstown State over 202 Florida Atlantic 60 Fordham over 145 Brown 70 Fresno State over 180 Southern Methodist 25 Colorado over 154 Kansas 2 Miami - Florida over 11 Florida State 6 Michigan over 35 Penn State 49 Minnesota over 129 Northwestern 101 Rice over 216 Navy 120 South Carolina State over 217 Norfolk State 89 North Carolina A&T over 197 Morgan State 121 Idaho over 219 Northeast Louisiana 149 Northern Arizona over 210 Sacramento State 4 Notre Dame over 33 Pittsburgh 127 Alcorn State over 224 Prairie View 39 Utah over 133 San Diego State 65 Toledo over 169 Ball State 131 Wofford over 215 Virginia Military 68 Wake Forest over 139 Duke 59 Georgia Southern over 160 Western Carolina 79 Western Illinois over 192 Illinois State 70-80% chance of victory: 40 Villanova over 54 Pennsylvania 28 Air Force over 67 Brigham Young 204 Akron over 222 Liberty 124 Alabama - Birmingham over 171 Houston 136 Alabama A&M over 187 Tennessee State 12 Auburn over 52 Arkansas 221 Central Connecticut over 230 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 90 Delaware over 123 James Madison 104 Eastern Illinois over 144 Eastern Kentucky 7 Florida over 16 Louisiana State 77 Hawaii over 117 Nevada - Reno 148 Idaho State over 176 Montana State 27 Iowa over 63 Michigan State 5 Iowa State over 13 Texas Tech 19 Kansas State over 47 Oklahoma State 29 Kentucky over 48 South Carolina 61 Maine over 115 Massachusetts 87 Miami - Ohio over 116 Northern Illinois 137 New Mexico State over 182 Southwestern Louisiana 95 Northeastern over 126 Rhode Island 107 Northwestern State over 170 Southwest Texas State 66 Duquesne over 135 Saint Peter's 20 Southern California over 51 California 193 California Poly over 233 Southern Utah 34 Washington State over 86 Stanford 73 Syracuse over 141 Temple 78 Lehigh over 134 Towson 97 Vanderbilt over 150 Middle Tennessee State 50 Washington over 83 Arizona 92 Western Kentucky over 159 Florida International 60-70% chance of victory: 24 Louisville over 58 Memphis State 64 Furman over 108 Appalachian State 23 Arizona State over 30 Oregon State 213 Butler over 214 Austin Peay 138 Albany over 194 Drake 44 Wisconsin over 84 Indiana 157 Southwest Missouri State over 185 Indiana State 99 Mississippi State over 118 Troy State 167 Monmouth over 186 Stony Brook 26 Nebraska over 42 Missouri 119 Nevada - Las Vegas over 132 New Mexico 106 Stephen F. Austin over 156 Nicholls State 22 North Carolina State over 56 North Carolina 211 Ohio over 205 Eastern Michigan 122 Portland State over 142 Eastern Washington 96 West Virginia over 151 Rutgers 227 Charleston Southern over 236 Savannah State 41 Southern Mississippi over 71 South Florida 125 Northern Iowa over 178 Southern Illinois 184 Texas Southern over 190 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 152 The Citadel over 163 East Tennessee State 43 Clemson over 82 Virginia 72 Central Florida over 94 Western Michigan 114 Jackson State over 147 Alabama State 3 Texas over 9 Oklahoma 50-60% chance of victory: 10 California - Los Angeles over 8 Oregon 238 Canisius over 234 La Salle 177 Lafayette over 198 Columbia 218 Georgetown over 225 Davidson 191 Gardner - Webb over 189 Elon 21 Georgia over 18 Tennessee 111 Hofstra over 98 William & Mary 173 Holy Cross over 168 Saint Mary's 55 Purdue over 76 Illinois 172 Jacksonville State over 161 Sam Houston State 158 Tennessee Tech over 181 Murray State 166 Richmond over 195 New Hampshire 109 Colgate over 130 Princeton 85 Cincinnati over 105 Tulane 179 Wagner over 174 Robert Morris
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