prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 172 Alabama State 40 46.5, 238 Morris Brown 7 13.7
92% 156 Albany 36 39.0, 237 Savannah State 14 4.6
92% 147 Eastern Kentucky 58 51.2, 239 Tennessee - Martin 3 5.2
92% 94 North Carolina A&T 36 45.6, 231 Norfolk State 10 8.9
92% 83 Grambling 35 44.4, 226 Prairie View 13 10.4
92% 68 Dayton 41 54.8, 228 Butler 0 11.4
92% 56 Pennsylvania 49 45.2, 203 Dartmouth 14 8.7
92% 48 Air Force 48 48.0, 197 Navy 7 15.6
92% 36 Bowling Green 72 45.6, 183 Ohio 21 11.1
92% 16 Louisiana State 48 49.8, 176 Southwestern Louisiana 0 7.2
92% 1 Miami - Florida 48 66.0, 163 Connecticut 14 3.5
91% 55 Duquesne 23 45.7, 190 Lafayette 22 16.8
91% 53 Fordham 41 35.6, 200 Georgetown 10 6.7
91% 41 Bethune - Cookman 41 44.4, 182 Morgan State 27 17.4
91% 14 Ohio State 27 46.5, 132 Northwestern 16 20.6
90% 128 Stephen F. Austin 52 44.5, 232 Southern Utah 6 16.7
90% 100 East Carolina 59 39.2, 218 Army 24 13.4
90% 99 Wofford 27 31.2, 211 Tennessee - Chattanoog 21 6.7
90% 76 Georgia Southern 52 46.9, 202 Virginia Military 7 16.3
90% 62 Furman 24 38.5, 170 Western Carolina 23 13.6
90% 3 Texas 17 41.5, 42 Oklahoma State 15 14.2
89% 70 Texas Christian 34 36.7, 168 Houston 17 14.3
88% 63 Brigham Young 35 53.2, 199 Utah State 34 27.9
88% 24 Montana 38 40.6, 134 Idaho 31 18.6
87% 145 Saint Peter's 19 24.3, 227 Siena 0 3.4
86% 117 Northern Arizona 26 38.0, 201 Weber State 21 18.4
85% 93 Youngstown State 31 32.1, 181 Indiana State 16 12.4
84% 137 Troy State 41 32.9, 217 Austin Peay 3 13.8
84% 11 Oregon 31 33.6, 85 Arizona 14 16.2
83% 103 Northwestern State 47 34.4, 178 Elon 20 17.7
83% 40 Maine 17 25.8, 116 James Madison 6 10.6
83% 33 Marshall 42 38.4, 135 Kent State 21 21.4
83% 6 Oklahoma 31 34.9, 58 Missouri 24 18.3
82% 22 Notre Dame 31 36.9, 75 Stanford 7 20.1
81% 139 Nicholls State 33 23.1, 196 Florida Atlantic 22 9.4
81% 97 Morehead State 39 36.7, 204 Davidson 7 18.7
80% 171 New Mexico State 49 37.4, 221 Texas - El Paso 14 22.2
80% 166 Marist 33 21.6, 212 Fairfield 29 7.9
80% 95 Yale 28 38.1, 175 Holy Cross 19 20.3
79% 185 Jacksonville State 37 36.3, 225 Samford 23 21.5
79% 184 Stony Brook 24 23.2, 233 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 10.5
79% 23 Iowa 31 34.5, 47 Purdue 28 21.3
77% 144 Tulane 52 27.3, 216 Northeast Louisiana 9 16.3
77% 112 Western Michigan 31 31.7, 192 Buffalo 17 19.5
77% 80 Lehigh 36 36.5, 98 Harvard 35 25.9
77% 64 Villanova 35 37.6, 96 Hofstra 7 25.9
77% 17 Florida State 48 33.2, 35 Clemson 31 21.5
76% 109 Princeton 35 27.5, 188 Columbia 32 17.5
76% 67 Virginia 27 37.6, 125 Duke 22 27.2
76% 54 South Carolina 34 26.8, 92 Mississippi State 10 16.4
71% 52 Minnesota 31 33.8, 78 Illinois 10 25.8
69% 162 Alabama A&M 27 14.4, 191 Southern 11 8.9
69% 113 Hampton 44 28.3, 169 Delaware State 13 21.6
68% 156 Albany 35 24.0, 177 Wagner 14 17.3
68% 148 Southeast Missouri Sta 49 29.0, 165 Tennessee State 25 22.3
67% 138 Portland State 16 20.3, 158 Southwest Texas State 0 14.3
67% 111 Northern Illinois 41 25.0, 167 Ball State 29 19.2
66% 45 Nebraska 38 27.9, 60 McNeese State 14 22.1
65% 131 Sacred Heart 34 23.2, 140 Robert Morris 0 18.4
64% 31 Tennessee 41 20.6, 38 Arkansas 38 16.4
63% 121 Rice 37 30.3, 124 Louisiana Tech 20 26.0
60% 209 San Diego 44 23.9, 205 Jacksonville 20 21.3
60% 123 San Jose State 34 27.1, 153 Southern Methodist 23 24.6
60% 106 Appalachian State 29 25.7, 143 East Tennessee State 10 23.0
60% 26 Penn State 34 24.4, 44 Wisconsin 31 22.1
58% 118 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 28.8, 107 Nevada - Reno 17 27.2
58% 86 Fresno State 32 33.3, 71 Colorado State 30 31.8
56% 142 Rhode Island 38 34.8, 130 Brown 28 33.7
51% 198 Gardner - Webb 31 23.4, 215 Liberty 21 23.3
49% 222 Drake 52 22.2, 213 Valparaiso 35 22.5
49% 84 South Florida 24 16.7, 89 North Texas 17 16.9
48% 174 Wyoming 34 20.6, 146 The Citadel 30 21.1
48% 160 Baylor 35 34.5, 141 Kansas 32 34.9
48% 61 Boise State 58 35.2, 43 Hawaii 31 35.7
39% 115 Eastern Illinois 35 28.4, 120 Tennessee Tech 28 31.2
38% 126 Colgate 13 15.4, 127 Bucknell 10 18.3
38% 18 Texas Tech 48 15.9, 15 Texas A&M 47 19.2
37% 105 Delaware 27 20.4, 82 Northeastern 10 24.8
36% 110 Western Kentucky 31 16.8, 104 Northern Iowa 12 20.9
36% 30 Washington State 30 20.3, 10 Southern California 27 25.0
35% 69 Maryland 48 20.3, 51 West Virginia 17 25.3
33% 224 Eastern Michigan 42 37.5, 180 Akron 34 44.4
33% 21 Georgia 27 17.3, 9 Alabama 25 22.5
30% 57 Pittsburgh 48 23.7, 37 Syracuse 24 31.5
28% 88 Miami - Ohio 31 25.0, 74 Cincinnati 26 32.9
28% 29 California - Los Angel 43 21.8, 20 Oregon State 35 30.6
27% 210 Illinois State 30 19.9, 151 Southwest Missouri Sta 20 28.5
26% 187 Massachusetts 34 18.1, 149 Richmond 13 29.2
26% 66 California 34 28.4, 39 Washington 27 37.3
23% 159 Idaho State 21 18.3, 108 Eastern Washington 14 29.9
21% 72 Wake Forest 24 16.0, 27 Georgia Tech 21 28.5
20% 220 Arkansas State 13 19.7, 133 Middle Tennessee State 7 35.2
18% 152 South Carolina State 31 16.6, 87 Florida A&M 13 33.0
18% 65 Colorado 35 18.1, 7 Kansas State 31 34.1
18% 50 North Carolina 38 23.7, 12 Arizona State 35 40.0
17% 207 Cornell 34 19.9, 102 Towson 31 37.1
14% 49 Mississippi 17 21.8, 4 Florida 14 42.3
10% 240 Canisius 14 8.0, 229 Iona 13 34.3
8% 219 Southern Illinois 54 13.5, 59 Western Illinois 52 46.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 0.83 24 0.90 21 0.81 24 0.89 21 1.04 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 99 69 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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