prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 143 Marist 28 36.6, 237 Saint John's 22 3.0
92% 113 Southeast Missouri Sta 50 58.0, 240 Tennessee - Martin 35 7.6
92% 69 Bethune - Cookman 49 44.4, 206 Delaware State 7 13.2
92% 57 Dayton 52 51.7, 229 Valparaiso 3 9.4
92% 53 Montana 39 42.3, 199 Weber State 7 12.4
92% 36 Boise State 52 50.3, 209 Tulsa 24 16.0
92% 32 Marshall 66 54.6, 201 Buffalo 21 14.0
92% 31 Mississippi 52 45.7, 196 Arkansas State 17 5.5
91% 17 Ohio State 50 45.0, 112 San Jose State 7 18.2
90% 188 Southern 19 35.3, 235 Mississippi Valley Sta 16 9.1
90% 91 Harvard 52 43.2, 207 Cornell 23 17.1
90% 81 Texas Christian 46 39.3, 208 Army 27 15.2
90% 79 Western Illinois 22 44.9, 192 Illinois State 17 19.0
90% 15 Bowling Green 45 46.2, 155 Central Michigan 35 20.1
89% 70 Fresno State 30 39.9, 180 Southern Methodist 7 14.6
89% 65 Toledo 37 40.8, 169 Ball State 17 17.9
88% 62 Colorado State 44 38.5, 164 Wyoming 36 16.3
88% 49 Minnesota 45 40.1, 129 Northwestern 42 18.7
88% 1 Virginia Tech 28 27.6, 37 Boston College 23 7.6
87% 101 Rice 17 39.2, 216 Navy 10 16.9
86% 127 Alcorn State 33 35.4, 224 Prairie View 13 14.6
86% 120 South Carolina State 35 28.2, 217 Norfolk State 9 9.8
86% 60 Fordham 24 40.1, 145 Brown 17 20.0
86% 46 Texas A&M 41 37.2, 162 Baylor 0 15.8
85% 25 Colorado 53 44.9, 154 Kansas 29 21.7
84% 68 Wake Forest 36 36.3, 139 Duke 10 18.5
84% 4 Notre Dame 14 28.2, 33 Pittsburgh 6 11.9
84% 2 Miami - Florida 28 41.4, 11 Florida State 27 24.3
83% 59 Georgia Southern 41 32.9, 160 Western Carolina 24 16.9
82% 100 Youngstown State 24 30.6, 202 Florida Atlantic 17 12.8
81% 200 Fairfield 15 29.8, 232 Iona 12 12.4
81% 6 Michigan 27 35.9, 35 Penn State 24 20.7
80% 193 California Poly 27 40.0, 233 Southern Utah 21 26.4
80% 107 Northwestern State 40 26.3, 170 Southwest Texas State 27 11.4
80% 92 Western Kentucky 56 19.3, 159 Florida International 7 5.4
79% 221 Central Connecticut 28 20.1, 230 Saint Francis - Pennsy 10 8.3
79% 27 Iowa 44 36.5, 63 Michigan State 16 24.0
78% 136 Alabama A&M 25 29.4, 187 Tennessee State 21 16.9
78% 124 Alabama - Birmingham 51 29.0, 171 Houston 34 17.4
78% 77 Hawaii 59 40.3, 117 Nevada - Reno 34 28.2
78% 50 Washington 32 30.1, 83 Arizona 28 18.7
77% 137 New Mexico State 31 33.1, 182 Southwestern Louisiana 28 21.3
77% 66 Duquesne 14 24.7, 135 Saint Peter's 3 13.2
77% 20 Southern California 30 33.2, 51 California 28 21.3
77% 19 Kansas State 44 29.8, 47 Oklahoma State 9 18.3
76% 104 Eastern Illinois 25 33.3, 144 Eastern Kentucky 24 22.5
76% 34 Washington State 36 39.6, 86 Stanford 11 30.0
76% 28 Air Force 52 42.8, 67 Brigham Young 9 31.9
75% 204 Akron 49 39.6, 222 Liberty 21 30.2
75% 90 Delaware 23 25.9, 123 James Madison 10 16.2
73% 148 Idaho State 18 27.3, 176 Montana State 14 18.8
72% 95 Northeastern 38 25.7, 126 Rhode Island 13 16.7
71% 5 Iowa State 31 40.6, 13 Texas Tech 17 32.4
70% 40 Villanova 17 26.7, 54 Pennsylvania 3 19.4
70% 22 North Carolina State 34 36.5, 56 North Carolina 17 29.2
69% 99 Mississippi State 11 25.7, 118 Troy State 8 18.4
67% 227 Charleston Southern 21 23.3, 236 Savannah State 3 17.1
67% 167 Monmouth 14 20.4, 186 Stony Brook 9 14.8
67% 96 West Virginia 40 26.3, 151 Rutgers 0 20.4
67% 26 Nebraska 24 29.4, 42 Missouri 13 23.1
67% 24 Louisville 38 24.7, 58 Memphis State 32 19.3
67% 23 Arizona State 13 36.1, 30 Oregon State 9 30.2
66% 122 Portland State 34 23.7, 142 Eastern Washington 31 18.0
65% 106 Stephen F. Austin 17 25.4, 156 Nicholls State 14 20.0
63% 184 Texas Southern 42 25.0, 190 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 20 20.9
63% 152 The Citadel 26 21.8, 163 East Tennessee State 7 17.3
61% 72 Central Florida 31 23.1, 94 Western Michigan 27 20.6
60% 211 Ohio 55 35.1, 205 Eastern Michigan 27 32.7
60% 191 Gardner - Webb 38 31.1, 189 Elon 27 28.8
60% 173 Holy Cross 24 21.9, 168 Saint Mary's 22 19.8
59% 177 Lafayette 28 32.8, 198 Columbia 21 30.8
59% 21 Georgia 18 25.5, 18 Tennessee 13 23.4
57% 179 Wagner 29 16.8, 174 Robert Morris 0 15.4
54% 218 Georgetown 25 17.4, 225 Davidson 21 16.7
51% 238 Canisius 30 21.0, 234 La Salle 27 20.8
51% 172 Jacksonville State 28 29.8, 161 Sam Houston State 22 29.5
48% 105 Tulane 35 32.5, 85 Cincinnati 17 33.0
45% 8 Oregon 31 22.7, 10 California - Los Angel 30 23.8
44% 130 Princeton 14 21.2, 109 Colgate 10 22.4
43% 181 Murray State 31 25.9, 158 Tennessee Tech 14 27.3
41% 195 New Hampshire 20 18.8, 166 Richmond 19 20.6
41% 98 William & Mary 16 33.7, 111 Hofstra 3 35.4
41% 76 Illinois 38 27.4, 55 Purdue 31 29.2
38% 214 Austin Peay 40 21.4, 213 Butler 23 25.2
38% 185 Indiana State 23 21.1, 157 Southwest Missouri Sta 20 24.5
38% 71 South Florida 16 19.8, 41 Southern Mississippi 13 23.0
37% 178 Southern Illinois 42 33.9, 125 Northern Iowa 13 38.8
36% 147 Alabama State 24 37.3, 114 Jackson State 20 41.5
35% 194 Drake 49 32.8, 138 Albany 42 39.6
35% 9 Oklahoma 35 19.5, 3 Texas 24 24.3
33% 132 New Mexico 25 16.9, 119 Nevada - Las Vegas 16 22.2
33% 84 Indiana 32 24.2, 44 Wisconsin 29 30.4
32% 82 Virginia 22 27.8, 43 Clemson 17 34.1
31% 108 Appalachian State 16 25.2, 64 Furman 15 32.2
28% 134 Towson 23 27.6, 78 Lehigh 19 35.9
28% 16 Louisiana State 36 17.9, 7 Florida 7 26.5
26% 48 South Carolina 16 22.4, 29 Kentucky 12 31.3
25% 116 Northern Illinois 48 22.6, 87 Miami - Ohio 41 32.3
25% 115 Massachusetts 20 21.1, 61 Maine 10 31.3
23% 141 Temple 17 25.3, 73 Syracuse 16 36.5
21% 150 Middle Tennessee State 21 19.2, 97 Vanderbilt 20 32.9
21% 52 Arkansas 38 19.4, 12 Auburn 17 33.5
18% 215 Virginia Military 27 21.8, 131 Wofford 16 37.6
18% 210 Sacramento State 24 16.4, 149 Northern Arizona 21 31.8
16% 219 Northeast Louisiana 34 22.8, 121 Idaho 14 39.8
15% 133 San Diego State 36 9.2, 39 Utah 17 27.7
14% 220 Howard 28 19.5, 140 Florida A&M 24 40.1
13% 212 Dartmouth 20 20.7, 102 Yale 17 40.3
12% 197 Morgan State 30 20.0, 89 North Carolina A&T 13 43.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
15 0.94 25 0.86 30 0.96 27 0.87 12 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 109 76 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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