rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 122 Alabama A&M over 234 Mississippi Valley State 152 Albany over 236 Canisius 30 Boston College over 209 Navy 24 Colorado over 180 Baylor 37 Dayton over 198 Drake 57 Duquesne over 228 Saint John's 18 Georgia over 108 Vanderbilt 105 Hampton over 225 Norfolk State 59 Hawaii over 223 Tulsa 36 Texas A&M over 185 Kansas 41 Montana over 231 Southern Utah 111 Morehead State over 219 Jacksonville 23 North Carolina State over 153 Duke 69 Pennsylvania over 215 Columbia 141 Wagner over 235 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 113 Rice over 226 Texas - El Paso 3 Virginia Tech over 186 Rutgers 79 Grambling over 211 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 80-90% chance of victory: 22 Louisville over 71 Texas Christian 14 Arkansas over 54 Kentucky 102 North Texas over 203 Arkansas State 35 Bowling Green over 97 Western Michigan 93 Miami - Ohio over 208 Buffalo 112 Colgate over 210 Cornell 87 Maine over 196 Florida International 155 Lafayette over 214 Georgetown 2 Louisiana State over 38 South Carolina 31 Marshall over 98 Troy State 67 McNeese State over 159 Jacksonville State 162 Monmouth over 217 Central Connecticut 68 William & Mary over 165 New Hampshire 133 New Mexico State over 213 Northeast Louisiana 32 Penn State over 114 Northwestern 134 Alcorn State over 229 Samford 21 Southern California over 65 Washington 40 Southern Mississippi over 110 Cincinnati 64 Western Kentucky over 173 Southwest Missouri State 77 Sacred Heart over 188 Stony Brook 94 Western Illinois over 172 Indiana State 103 Youngstown State over 178 Northern Iowa 70-80% chance of victory: 11 Alabama over 43 Mississippi 177 Ball State over 216 Eastern Michigan 28 Boise State over 49 Fresno State 96 Brigham Young over 137 Nevada - Las Vegas 9 California - Los Angeles over 45 California 164 East Tennessee State over 204 Elon 120 Eastern Kentucky over 148 Murray State 81 Furman over 118 The Citadel 46 Georgia Southern over 89 Appalachian State 17 Iowa over 75 Indiana 230 Iona over 237 La Salle 140 Kent State over 191 Ohio 84 Lehigh over 125 Yale 42 Villanova over 95 Massachusetts 61 Memphis State over 101 Mississippi State 136 Middle Tennessee State over 184 Southwestern Louisiana 104 Northern Illinois over 142 Central Michigan 12 Oregon over 29 Arizona State 10 Michigan over 51 Purdue 83 Delaware over 146 Rhode Island 117 Portland State over 197 Sacramento State 156 Saint Mary's over 201 California Poly 195 Fairfield over 232 Siena 50 Bethune - Cookman over 119 South Carolina State 115 Stephen F. Austin over 158 Sam Houston State 25 Texas Tech over 56 Missouri 82 Tulane over 106 Alabama - Birmingham 16 Ohio State over 55 Wisconsin 85 San Diego State over 143 Wyoming 60-70% chance of victory: 47 Maryland over 48 Georgia Tech 13 Air Force over 15 Notre Dame 193 San Diego over 220 Butler 44 Clemson over 60 Wake Forest 109 Temple over 157 Connecticut 63 South Florida over 88 East Carolina 150 Eastern Washington over 170 Northern Arizona 33 Florida over 39 Auburn 138 North Carolina A&T over 161 Florida A&M 90 Harvard over 99 Northeastern 194 Houston over 212 Army 144 Morgan State over 192 Howard 131 Southern Illinois over 167 Illinois State 224 Liberty over 221 Charleston Southern 181 Montana State over 190 Weber State 4 Oklahoma over 6 Iowa State 19 Nebraska over 52 Oklahoma State 130 James Madison over 171 Richmond 147 Saint Peter's over 169 Marist 107 Eastern Illinois over 149 Southeast Missouri State 121 Louisiana Tech over 174 Southern Methodist 179 Southwest Texas State over 176 Nicholls State 127 Towson over 139 Bucknell 116 New Mexico over 168 Utah State 227 Davidson over 233 Valparaiso 76 West Virginia over 91 Syracuse 151 Wofford over 166 Western Carolina 238 Savannah State over 239 Morris Brown 50-60% chance of victory: 53 Toledo over 72 Central Florida 160 Holy Cross over 189 Dartmouth 7 Kansas State over 5 Texas 78 Michigan State over 62 Minnesota 132 Nevada - Reno over 123 San Jose State 135 Princeton over 126 Brown 86 Arizona over 92 Stanford 205 Tennessee - Chattanooga over 202 Virginia Military 74 Utah over 73 Colorado State 70 Virginia over 58 North Carolina
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