prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 122 Alabama A&M 24 44.0, 234 Mississippi Valley Sta 13 8.6
92% 105 Hampton 31 40.7, 225 Norfolk State 14 9.3
92% 69 Pennsylvania 44 42.2, 215 Columbia 10 5.0
92% 59 Hawaii 37 59.2, 223 Tulsa 14 18.0
92% 57 Duquesne 63 44.6, 228 Saint John's 7 3.2
92% 41 Montana 68 56.1, 231 Southern Utah 45 3.7
92% 37 Dayton 35 56.4, 198 Drake 7 18.5
92% 30 Boston College 46 52.5, 209 Navy 21 7.3
92% 23 North Carolina State 24 48.8, 153 Duke 22 15.6
92% 3 Virginia Tech 35 49.2, 186 Rutgers 14 2.4
91% 79 Grambling 54 42.7, 211 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 15 15.9
91% 36 Texas A&M 47 43.2, 185 Kansas 22 13.0
91% 24 Colorado 34 55.0, 180 Baylor 0 18.7
91% 18 Georgia 48 37.7, 108 Vanderbilt 17 11.5
90% 152 Albany 44 43.2, 236 Canisius 14 15.3
90% 141 Wagner 7 35.6, 235 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 9.1
90% 111 Morehead State 48 42.4, 219 Jacksonville 14 16.7
89% 32 Penn State 49 46.4, 114 Northwestern 0 23.4
88% 67 McNeese State 28 39.8, 159 Jacksonville State 20 17.5
88% 31 Marshall 24 40.2, 98 Troy State 7 19.1
87% 2 Louisiana State 38 25.3, 38 South Carolina 14 5.4
86% 40 Southern Mississippi 23 33.8, 110 Cincinnati 14 15.1
86% 35 Bowling Green 48 43.2, 97 Western Michigan 45 23.6
85% 133 New Mexico State 34 33.9, 213 Northeast Louisiana 21 15.8
85% 93 Miami - Ohio 49 41.2, 208 Buffalo 0 22.3
85% 87 Maine 33 27.5, 196 Florida International 7 9.3
84% 102 North Texas 13 19.8, 203 Arkansas State 10 6.4
84% 94 Western Illinois 52 36.4, 172 Indiana State 21 18.5
84% 64 Western Kentucky 31 30.2, 173 Southwest Missouri Sta 7 10.6
83% 112 Colgate 42 34.8, 210 Cornell 13 19.1
83% 68 William & Mary 34 38.9, 165 New Hampshire 27 22.4
81% 155 Lafayette 35 35.2, 214 Georgetown 17 20.5
81% 21 Southern California 41 31.4, 65 Washington 21 17.0
80% 177 Ball State 42 39.5, 216 Eastern Michigan 17 25.5
80% 11 Alabama 42 32.9, 43 Mississippi 7 19.0
79% 25 Texas Tech 52 39.7, 56 Missouri 38 26.4
78% 136 Middle Tennessee State 48 28.1, 184 Southwestern Louisiana 35 16.7
78% 84 Lehigh 14 35.3, 125 Yale 7 21.5
78% 50 Bethune - Cookman 21 30.3, 119 South Carolina State 6 18.1
77% 117 Portland State 34 31.2, 197 Sacramento State 20 19.5
77% 46 Georgia Southern 36 30.7, 89 Appalachian State 20 19.4
77% 17 Iowa 24 38.2, 75 Indiana 8 27.4
77% 10 Michigan 23 29.6, 51 Purdue 21 19.2
76% 230 Iona 30 25.7, 237 La Salle 23 15.4
76% 164 East Tennessee State 31 26.3, 204 Elon 15 16.3
76% 156 Saint Mary's 35 26.2, 201 California Poly 17 16.0
76% 104 Northern Illinois 49 35.5, 142 Central Michigan 0 24.9
76% 81 Furman 37 29.1, 118 The Citadel 10 17.5
76% 28 Boise State 67 44.8, 49 Fresno State 21 34.9
75% 82 Tulane 35 32.4, 106 Alabama - Birmingham 14 22.6
73% 120 Eastern Kentucky 31 28.4, 148 Murray State 7 20.1
72% 85 San Diego State 24 33.8, 143 Wyoming 20 24.8
72% 16 Ohio State 19 29.0, 55 Wisconsin 14 20.9
69% 193 San Diego 35 34.8, 220 Butler 26 28.2
68% 194 Houston 56 40.5, 212 Army 42 33.4
68% 147 Saint Peter's 36 21.3, 169 Marist 24 15.5
68% 109 Temple 38 25.7, 157 Connecticut 24 19.1
67% 44 Clemson 31 27.8, 60 Wake Forest 23 22.2
66% 150 Eastern Washington 41 26.8, 170 Northern Arizona 29 21.3
66% 4 Oklahoma 49 28.5, 6 Iowa State 3 22.9
65% 151 Wofford 31 24.6, 166 Western Carolina 24 19.7
65% 127 Towson 20 19.7, 139 Bucknell 14 15.1
65% 76 West Virginia 34 33.8, 91 Syracuse 7 28.5
64% 181 Montana State 44 31.6, 190 Weber State 10 27.0
64% 144 Morgan State 38 31.7, 192 Howard 20 26.7
64% 107 Eastern Illinois 44 36.6, 149 Southeast Missouri Sta 27 31.6
64% 47 Maryland 34 22.3, 48 Georgia Tech 10 18.0
63% 33 Florida 30 26.9, 39 Auburn 23 22.2
62% 238 Savannah State 21 17.0, 239 Morris Brown 20 13.6
61% 224 Liberty 31 22.0, 221 Charleston Southern 17 18.9
61% 63 South Florida 46 30.0, 88 East Carolina 30 27.2
60% 227 Davidson 49 21.6, 233 Valparaiso 32 19.0
56% 135 Princeton 16 27.8, 126 Brown 14 26.6
54% 132 Nevada - Reno 52 33.6, 123 San Jose State 24 32.9
54% 70 Virginia 37 27.6, 58 North Carolina 27 26.8
52% 53 Toledo 27 33.0, 72 Central Florida 24 32.6
48% 92 Stanford 16 28.7, 86 Arizona 6 29.0
48% 62 Minnesota 28 25.9, 78 Michigan State 7 26.4
43% 73 Colorado State 28 23.2, 74 Utah 20 24.7
41% 189 Dartmouth 44 24.4, 160 Holy Cross 36 26.4
41% 5 Texas 17 25.3, 7 Kansas State 14 27.2
40% 202 Virginia Military 35 27.7, 205 Tennessee - Chattanoog 31 30.0
40% 176 Nicholls State 24 17.7, 179 Southwest Texas State 21 20.1
40% 167 Illinois State 35 30.5, 131 Southern Illinois 14 32.9
40% 161 Florida A&M 36 24.8, 138 North Carolina A&T 28 27.3
38% 15 Notre Dame 21 17.9, 13 Air Force 14 21.7
36% 171 Richmond 26 11.8, 130 James Madison 0 15.7
33% 168 Utah State 45 25.0, 116 New Mexico 44 31.0
33% 99 Northeastern 17 22.6, 90 Harvard 14 28.6
33% 52 Oklahoma State 24 19.2, 19 Nebraska 21 25.0
32% 174 Southern Methodist 37 20.5, 121 Louisiana Tech 34 26.7
26% 95 Massachusetts 17 20.4, 42 Villanova 16 29.7
25% 45 California 17 29.1, 9 California - Los Angel 12 38.4
25% 29 Arizona State 45 24.7, 12 Oregon 42 34.0
24% 146 Rhode Island 17 19.9, 83 Delaware 14 30.2
24% 137 Nevada - Las Vegas 24 22.5, 96 Brigham Young 3 33.4
22% 158 Sam Houston State 10 19.6, 115 Stephen F. Austin 7 31.4
21% 191 Ohio 50 17.6, 140 Kent State 0 30.6
21% 101 Mississippi State 29 15.8, 61 Memphis State 17 27.9
20% 232 Siena 36 10.5, 195 Fairfield 20 23.6
20% 54 Kentucky 29 20.7, 14 Arkansas 17 38.1
19% 178 Northern Iowa 22 21.7, 103 Youngstown State 7 38.1
19% 71 Texas Christian 45 21.4, 22 Louisville 31 37.8
16% 217 Central Connecticut 10 8.8, 162 Monmouth 9 23.9
15% 188 Stony Brook 24 10.9, 77 Sacred Heart 14 30.3
14% 229 Samford 34 20.2, 134 Alcorn State 25 38.7
9% 226 Texas - El Paso 38 13.6, 113 Rice 35 37.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.72 28 1.05 29 0.90 22 0.86 18 1.03 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 107 76 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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