rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 39 Dayton over 234 Canisius 72 Duquesne over 216 Iona 158 Gardner - Webb over 238 Tennessee - Martin 60 Georgia Southern over 182 East Tennessee State 53 Hawaii over 183 San Jose State 5 Kansas State over 156 Kansas 79 Eastern Kentucky over 225 Liberty 154 Morgan State over 240 Morris Brown 102 North Texas over 205 Northeast Louisiana 2 Miami - Florida over 192 Rutgers 42 South Florida over 229 Charleston Southern 6 Boise State over 223 Texas - El Paso 35 Texas Tech over 203 Baylor 3 Alabama over 129 Vanderbilt 80-90% chance of victory: 29 Marshall over 162 Akron 19 Arkansas over 98 Troy State 138 Jackson State over 232 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 123 South Carolina State over 219 Delaware State 109 Hofstra over 204 Elon 8 Iowa over 44 Wisconsin 52 Bowling Green over 197 Kent State 111 Memphis State over 175 Houston 56 Miami - Ohio over 118 Ohio 25 Michigan over 97 Michigan State 73 Montana over 165 Northern Arizona 159 Murray State over 212 Samford 21 North Carolina State over 70 Georgia Tech 101 Northwestern State over 164 Sam Houston State 7 Notre Dame over 41 Boston College 1 Oklahoma over 9 Colorado 28 Oregon State over 86 Arizona 13 Penn State over 59 Illinois 61 Pennsylvania over 157 Brown 117 Sacred Heart over 173 Wagner 55 Western Illinois over 168 Southwest Missouri State 113 Appalachian State over 221 Tennessee - Chattanooga 37 Grambling over 185 Texas Southern 146 Eastern Washington over 233 Weber State 77 Western Kentucky over 142 Illinois State 122 Yale over 220 Columbia 70-80% chance of victory: 207 Arkansas State over 226 Southern Utah 103 Colgate over 140 Lafayette 153 Connecticut over 194 Florida Atlantic 94 Harvard over 176 Dartmouth 71 Clemson over 137 Duke 178 Central Michigan over 228 Eastern Michigan 172 Saint Peter's over 218 Fairfield 198 Howard over 217 Norfolk State 27 Iowa State over 58 Missouri 81 Massachusetts over 108 Delaware 15 Auburn over 64 Mississippi 105 Nevada - Las Vegas over 121 Wyoming 30 Maryland over 85 North Carolina 24 Ohio State over 45 Minnesota 26 Oregon over 66 Stanford 174 Southeast Missouri State over 201 Tennessee Tech 68 McNeese State over 128 Stephen F. Austin 99 Eastern Illinois over 191 Tennessee State 139 Rice over 213 Tulsa 38 Villanova over 83 William & Mary 14 Virginia Tech over 32 Pittsburgh 60-70% chance of victory: 23 Colorado State over 54 Air Force 104 San Diego State over 127 Brigham Young 167 Stony Brook over 195 Central Connecticut 93 Central Florida over 95 Syracuse 141 Princeton over 193 Cornell 149 San Diego over 199 Drake 51 Cincinnati over 87 East Carolina 200 Florida International over 209 Jacksonville 4 Texas over 18 Nebraska 125 Middle Tennessee State over 170 New Mexico State 112 Indiana over 130 Northwestern 33 Texas A&M over 63 Oklahoma State 90 Richmond over 100 Northeastern 144 Albany over 190 Robert Morris 143 Montana State over 181 Sacramento State 46 South Carolina over 50 Tennessee 107 Nevada - Reno over 135 Southern Methodist 148 Idaho over 210 Southwestern Louisiana 49 West Virginia over 75 Temple 222 Butler over 236 Valparaiso 131 Western Carolina over 188 Virginia Military 17 Florida State over 40 Wake Forest 31 California - Los Angeles over 65 Washington 16 Washington State over 22 Arizona State 116 Wofford over 120 The Citadel 163 Youngstown State over 187 Southern Illinois 11 Georgia over 20 Florida 50-60% chance of victory: 57 Texas Christian over 48 Southern Mississippi 110 Western Michigan over 126 Ball State 124 Florida A&M over 119 Hampton 92 Fordham over 82 Lehigh 189 Marist over 202 Georgetown 161 Holy Cross over 150 Bucknell 166 Northern Iowa over 186 Indiana State 237 La Salle over 235 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 62 Kentucky over 76 Mississippi State 231 Mississippi Valley State over 230 Prairie View 145 Monmouth over 134 Towson 96 Idaho State over 114 Portland State 184 Rhode Island over 180 James Madison 227 Siena over 224 Saint John's 177 Southern over 169 Alcorn State 152 Jacksonville State over 179 Southwest Texas State
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