prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 162 Gardner - Webb 24 45.5, 238 Tennessee - Martin 0 14.2
92% 152 Morgan State 42 44.0, 240 Morris Brown 41 7.5
92% 75 Eastern Kentucky 35 38.5, 225 Liberty 28 6.7
92% 70 Duquesne 59 42.1, 217 Iona 10 6.0
92% 57 Georgia Southern 40 34.8, 182 East Tennessee State 7 4.3
92% 49 Hawaii 40 53.3, 183 San Jose State 31 20.5
92% 39 Dayton 42 56.9, 234 Canisius 6 3.5
92% 38 South Florida 56 56.2, 228 Charleston Southern 6 5.4
92% 36 Texas Tech 62 51.7, 205 Baylor 11 12.1
92% 6 Boise State 58 67.3, 222 Texas - El Paso 3 9.1
92% 5 Kansas State 64 53.0, 154 Kansas 0 12.8
92% 3 Alabama 30 50.1, 131 Vanderbilt 8 11.5
92% 2 Miami - Florida 42 58.2, 184 Rutgers 17 6.5
90% 98 North Texas 41 31.8, 204 Northeast Louisiana 2 6.1
90% 59 Pennsylvania 31 36.0, 160 Brown 7 10.3
90% 21 Arkansas 23 32.9, 102 Troy State 0 8.2
89% 74 Montana 38 39.1, 170 Northern Arizona 24 15.8
89% 52 Bowling Green 45 43.3, 186 Kent State 14 19.7
89% 41 Grambling 42 47.6, 187 Texas Southern 28 20.3
88% 123 Yale 35 36.5, 220 Columbia 7 14.9
87% 114 Appalachian State 20 38.1, 223 Tennessee - Chattanoog 17 18.7
86% 139 Eastern Washington 38 42.1, 233 Weber State 20 22.0
85% 77 Western Kentucky 9 30.0, 137 Illinois State 0 11.1
85% 71 Western Illinois 28 33.8, 168 Southwest Missouri Sta 23 16.3
85% 26 Michigan 49 32.3, 97 Michigan State 3 14.8
84% 54 Miami - Ohio 38 34.3, 121 Ohio 20 16.2
84% 31 Oregon State 38 26.4, 86 Arizona 3 10.3
83% 138 Jackson State 42 42.9, 230 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 0 26.1
82% 103 Northwestern State 38 32.1, 169 Sam Houston State 10 16.4
82% 13 Penn State 18 35.8, 56 Illinois 7 18.9
82% 8 Iowa 20 31.9, 45 Wisconsin 3 16.9
81% 161 Murray State 54 33.3, 213 Samford 17 18.7
81% 109 Hofstra 27 34.5, 202 Elon 13 19.4
80% 119 Sacred Heart 10 22.4, 174 Wagner 7 8.8
80% 92 Harvard 31 38.0, 179 Dartmouth 26 24.0
80% 72 Clemson 34 30.7, 142 Duke 31 17.2
80% 67 McNeese State 42 28.0, 129 Stephen F. Austin 13 14.5
80% 1 Oklahoma 27 29.7, 10 Colorado 11 15.8
79% 100 Colgate 31 29.7, 143 Lafayette 24 17.1
79% 99 Eastern Illinois 54 40.0, 191 Tennessee State 48 26.5
79% 69 Bethune - Cookman 13 31.9, 126 North Carolina A&T 12 19.6
79% 37 Villanova 41 27.4, 83 William & Mary 20 15.3
77% 175 Central Michigan 47 34.4, 229 Eastern Michigan 21 22.4
77% 25 Oregon 41 34.9, 65 Stanford 14 23.4
76% 141 Youngstown State 21 26.2, 185 Southern Illinois 9 16.3
76% 82 Massachusetts 17 22.2, 110 Delaware 7 12.6
76% 28 Iowa State 42 28.8, 63 Missouri 35 18.4
76% 16 Auburn 31 35.2, 62 Mississippi 24 25.1
75% 207 Arkansas State 38 34.6, 226 Southern Utah 16 24.9
74% 29 Maryland 59 27.2, 85 North Carolina 7 18.7
72% 176 Southeast Missouri Sta 36 27.7, 203 Tennessee Tech 30 19.1
72% 144 Rice 33 26.8, 214 Tulsa 18 19.1
72% 24 Ohio State 34 24.4, 51 Minnesota 3 16.5
71% 158 Connecticut 61 23.8, 189 Florida Atlantic 14 15.7
70% 199 Howard 21 26.7, 215 Norfolk State 0 19.6
69% 221 Butler 52 36.3, 236 Valparaiso 22 29.5
69% 104 Nevada - Las Vegas 49 25.6, 118 Wyoming 48 18.5
69% 4 Texas 27 27.1, 18 Nebraska 24 20.3
68% 17 Washington State 44 30.6, 23 Arizona State 22 23.9
67% 15 Florida State 34 31.5, 44 Wake Forest 21 25.3
65% 200 Florida International 39 21.7, 209 Jacksonville 6 16.7
65% 128 Western Carolina 35 40.7, 188 Virginia Military 23 35.5
65% 106 Nevada - Reno 24 32.9, 136 Southern Methodist 6 27.4
64% 43 West Virginia 46 25.1, 76 Temple 20 20.5
63% 164 Stony Brook 24 16.7, 197 Central Connecticut 10 13.5
63% 140 Montana State 31 29.9, 181 Sacramento State 30 25.5
62% 227 Siena 20 17.3, 224 Saint John's 19 14.3
62% 155 San Diego 51 44.6, 198 Drake 46 41.4
62% 116 Wofford 27 22.6, 117 The Citadel 14 19.4
62% 27 California - Los Angel 34 26.3, 64 Washington 24 22.7
62% 22 Colorado State 31 28.6, 55 Air Force 12 24.1
61% 150 Albany 32 21.3, 196 Robert Morris 7 18.3
61% 148 Princeton 32 20.8, 192 Cornell 25 17.8
59% 232 Mississippi Valley Sta 26 26.5, 231 Prairie View 8 24.4
59% 159 Holy Cross 38 20.4, 149 Bucknell 21 18.7
59% 58 Kentucky 45 26.5, 81 Mississippi State 24 24.6
53% 124 Florida A&M 25 37.9, 120 Hampton 13 37.3
51% 166 Alcorn State 22 24.4, 180 Southern 20 24.2
51% 60 Texas Christian 37 19.6, 46 Southern Mississippi 7 19.5
49% 84 Lehigh 26 20.3, 95 Fordham 23 20.5
48% 235 Saint Francis - Pennsy 23 18.7, 237 La Salle 16 19.1
48% 201 Georgetown 24 25.4, 193 Marist 17 25.8
48% 178 James Madison 15 12.9, 190 Rhode Island 11 13.1
48% 135 Towson 20 12.8, 147 Monmouth 0 13.2
44% 113 Portland State 27 19.4, 94 Idaho State 24 20.6
41% 195 Indiana State 21 23.0, 165 Northern Iowa 19 24.8
41% 177 Southwest Texas State 27 22.9, 151 Jacksonville State 20 24.7
41% 127 Ball State 17 23.6, 112 Western Michigan 7 25.4
39% 167 New Mexico State 24 28.0, 125 Middle Tennessee State 21 30.7
39% 133 Northwestern 41 25.4, 111 Indiana 37 28.7
39% 93 Syracuse 38 23.7, 91 Central Florida 35 27.2
39% 66 Oklahoma State 28 20.0, 30 Texas A&M 23 23.1
39% 50 Tennessee 18 18.0, 47 South Carolina 10 20.9
37% 132 Brigham Young 34 21.9, 105 San Diego State 10 26.3
36% 20 Florida 20 20.1, 12 Georgia 13 24.7
33% 101 Northeastern 24 9.5, 90 Richmond 21 15.0
32% 208 Southwestern Louisiana 31 30.5, 146 Idaho 28 36.8
30% 218 Fairfield 27 20.5, 172 Saint Peter's 13 28.0
28% 32 Pittsburgh 28 14.7, 14 Virginia Tech 21 22.5
20% 40 Boston College 14 15.6, 7 Notre Dame 7 28.9
19% 68 Georgia Tech 24 17.3, 19 North Carolina State 17 32.8
17% 219 Delaware State 27 16.1, 122 South Carolina State 21 32.2
17% 173 Houston 26 24.0, 107 Memphis State 21 40.3
13% 163 Akron 34 22.2, 34 Marshall 20 44.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
15 0.73 28 1.06 23 1.14 22 0.97 16 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 104 79 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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