rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 6 Alabama over 82 Mississippi State 11 Auburn over 213 Northeast Louisiana 4 Boise State over 140 Rice 59 Duquesne over 230 Canisius 96 Eastern Illinois over 240 Tennessee - Martin 83 Fresno State over 215 Tulsa 99 Harvard over 217 Columbia 8 Iowa over 123 Northwestern 52 McNeese State over 165 Southwest Texas State 71 Montana over 186 Sacramento State 13 Nebraska over 198 Kansas 92 Nevada - Reno over 232 Texas - El Paso 38 Pennsylvania over 156 Princeton 127 Sacred Heart over 228 Siena 35 South Florida over 138 Memphis State 5 Texas over 201 Baylor 114 Western Michigan over 231 Eastern Michigan 22 Notre Dame over 206 Navy 80-90% chance of victory: 122 Appalachian State over 195 Virginia Military 27 California - Los Angeles over 91 Arizona 77 Air Force over 203 Army 97 Central Florida over 205 Buffalo 136 Wagner over 216 Central Connecticut 171 Gardner - Webb over 229 Charleston Southern 14 Georgia over 72 Mississippi 62 Grambling over 135 Alabama State 81 Northwestern State over 172 Jacksonville State 1 Kansas State over 32 Iowa State 202 Marist over 238 La Salle 60 Lehigh over 108 Colgate 67 Maine over 101 Delaware 86 North Texas over 153 Idaho 28 Pittsburgh over 93 Temple 9 Southern California over 66 Stanford 157 Stony Brook over 204 Robert Morris 3 Oklahoma over 41 Texas A&M 26 Texas Christian over 78 Tulane 133 The Citadel over 212 Tennessee - Chattanooga 80 Toledo over 148 Central Michigan 19 Florida over 150 Vanderbilt 120 Portland State over 218 Weber State 88 William & Mary over 191 Rhode Island 70-80% chance of victory: 64 Southern Mississippi over 144 Alabama - Birmingham 40 Arizona State over 54 California 113 Yale over 179 Brown 126 Connecticut over 189 Kent State 70 Dayton over 94 Morehead State 131 North Carolina A&T over 192 Delaware State 107 Wofford over 178 East Tennessee State 111 Eastern Kentucky over 167 Southeast Missouri State 208 Elon over 221 Liberty 190 Fairfield over 219 Saint John's 220 Florida Atlantic over 236 Morris Brown 18 Florida State over 50 Georgia Tech 68 Bethune - Cookman over 129 Hampton 116 Idaho State over 151 Northern Arizona 102 Jackson State over 155 Alabama A&M 10 Louisiana State over 46 Kentucky 37 Louisville over 57 Cincinnati 7 Maryland over 36 North Carolina State 16 Michigan over 58 Minnesota 181 Alcorn State over 223 Mississippi Valley State 12 Colorado over 53 Missouri 211 Monmouth over 233 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 147 Murray State over 176 Tennessee State 84 Massachusetts over 161 New Hampshire 74 Clemson over 128 North Carolina 49 Villanova over 100 Northeastern 79 Western Illinois over 169 Northern Iowa 29 Penn State over 69 Virginia 160 Saint Mary's over 200 Drake 175 Tennessee Tech over 226 Samford 154 South Carolina State over 196 Howard 23 Virginia Tech over 75 Syracuse 2 Miami - Florida over 30 Tennessee 33 Texas Tech over 45 Oklahoma State 76 Utah over 117 Nevada - Las Vegas 25 Oregon State over 65 Washington 60-70% chance of victory: 234 Arkansas - Pine Bluff over 235 Prairie View 209 Austin Peay over 214 Davidson 89 Brigham Young over 109 Wyoming 124 Albany over 164 Florida International 48 Furman over 55 Georgia Southern 95 Fordham over 130 Holy Cross 85 East Carolina over 134 Houston 137 Illinois State over 139 Youngstown State 193 Saint Peter's over 222 Iona 104 New Mexico over 125 San Diego State 188 Morgan State over 224 Norfolk State 42 Bowling Green over 73 Northern Illinois 20 Arkansas over 47 South Carolina 183 Southern Illinois over 184 Indiana State 210 Southwestern Louisiana over 207 Arkansas State 17 Washington State over 24 Oregon 50-60% chance of victory: 162 Bucknell over 149 Lafayette 177 Dartmouth over 197 Cornell 105 Hofstra over 90 Richmond 110 Indiana over 106 Michigan State 145 Eastern Washington over 166 Montana State 146 Ohio over 121 Akron 15 Ohio State over 31 Purdue 168 Nicholls State over 187 Sam Houston State 119 Louisiana Tech over 152 San Jose State 173 Utah State over 158 New Mexico State 39 West Virginia over 34 Boston College 51 Wisconsin over 43 Illinois 103 Troy State over 112 Florida A&M
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