rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 157 Tennessee Tech over 239 Tennessee - Martin 67 Bowling Green over 223 Eastern Michigan 28 Pennsylvania over 189 Cornell 88 Hofstra over 224 Liberty 18 McNeese State over 138 Nicholls State 1 Kansas State over 44 Missouri 10 Boise State over 116 Nevada - Reno 32 Notre Dame over 194 Rutgers 54 Oklahoma State over 165 Baylor 181 Alabama State over 240 Savannah State 48 Wake Forest over 205 Navy 131 Youngstown State over 231 Samford 80-90% chance of victory: 163 The Citadel over 235 Charleston Southern 2 Miami - Florida over 31 Pittsburgh 61 Air Force over 128 San Diego State 126 Ball State over 201 Buffalo 151 Brown over 222 Columbia 74 Fordham over 180 Bucknell 86 Colgate over 169 Holy Cross 23 Colorado State over 89 New Mexico 91 Wofford over 187 Elon 77 Furman over 172 Tennessee - Chattanooga 35 South Florida over 166 Houston 150 Howard over 220 Delaware State 133 Louisiana Tech over 214 Texas - El Paso 42 Louisville over 105 Alabama - Birmingham 93 Maine over 175 New Hampshire 206 Norfolk State over 233 Morris Brown 64 Northeastern over 129 James Madison 39 Illinois over 136 Northwestern 63 Marshall over 149 Ohio 4 Penn State over 69 Michigan State 50 Purdue over 171 Indiana 118 Idaho State over 225 Southern Utah 125 Towson over 218 Georgetown 24 Tennessee over 108 Vanderbilt 90 Jackson State over 197 Alcorn State 70-80% chance of victory: 25 Virginia Tech over 43 West Virginia 5 Alabama over 20 Auburn 141 Alabama A&M over 215 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 45 California over 80 Stanford 3 Southern California over 21 California - Los Angeles 33 Texas Christian over 97 East Carolina 160 Florida International over 221 Florida Atlantic 57 Iowa State over 99 Connecticut 153 Akron over 217 Kent State 27 Louisiana State over 58 Mississippi 109 Memphis State over 179 Army 85 Montana over 130 Montana State 106 Hampton over 168 Morgan State 9 Florida State over 46 North Carolina State 6 Oklahoma over 15 Texas Tech 30 Oregon State over 49 Oregon 158 Princeton over 191 Dartmouth 178 Southern Methodist over 216 Tulsa 38 Boston College over 100 Temple 53 Southern Mississippi over 111 Tulane 59 Utah over 101 Brigham Young 19 Maryland over 65 Virginia 13 Washington State over 22 Washington 121 North Carolina A&T over 196 South Carolina State 60-70% chance of victory: 132 Eastern Kentucky over 193 Tennessee State 199 California Poly over 212 Weber State 51 Clemson over 66 South Carolina 119 Harvard over 114 Yale 34 Cincinnati over 68 Hawaii 76 Lehigh over 107 Lafayette 70 Miami - Ohio over 73 Central Florida 36 Arkansas over 83 Mississippi State 183 Southwestern Louisiana over 219 Northeast Louisiana 41 Toledo over 79 Northern Illinois 124 Massachusetts over 184 Rhode Island 82 Fresno State over 123 San Jose State 143 Stephen F. Austin over 147 Northwestern State 87 William & Mary over 102 Richmond 72 Wisconsin over 81 Minnesota 104 Bethune - Cookman over 122 Florida A&M 50-60% chance of victory: 142 Western Michigan over 170 Central Michigan 56 Villanova over 75 Delaware 120 North Carolina over 145 Duke 144 New Mexico State over 176 Idaho 112 Middle Tennessee State over 98 North Texas 137 Murray State over 113 Eastern Illinois 17 Ohio State over 12 Michigan 203 Sam Houston State over 192 Southwest Texas State
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