prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 177 Alabama State 28 38.7, 240 Savannah State 13 10.4
92% 159 Tennessee Tech 68 44.7, 238 Tennessee - Martin 7 10.3
92% 130 Youngstown State 37 41.6, 231 Samford 29 11.5
92% 80 Hofstra 32 48.8, 227 Liberty 3 11.8
92% 66 Bowling Green 63 52.0, 223 Eastern Michigan 21 15.4
92% 47 Wake Forest 30 47.8, 205 Navy 27 11.8
92% 34 Notre Dame 42 36.0, 190 Rutgers 0 2.7
92% 30 Pennsylvania 31 42.6, 187 Cornell 0 9.0
92% 20 McNeese State 33 40.1, 138 Nicholls State 21 7.1
92% 11 Boise State 44 42.9, 116 Nevada - Reno 7 16.2
91% 53 Oklahoma State 63 41.5, 165 Baylor 28 15.6
91% 1 Kansas State 38 43.4, 45 Missouri 0 18.5
89% 160 The Citadel 53 36.4, 235 Charleston Southern 19 13.2
89% 52 Purdue 34 46.4, 167 Indiana 10 20.0
89% 33 South Florida 32 44.1, 166 Houston 14 20.3
89% 2 Miami - Florida 28 38.5, 32 Pittsburgh 21 15.9
88% 4 Penn State 61 46.1, 71 Michigan State 7 20.0
87% 86 Jackson State 34 39.6, 197 Alcorn State 20 17.7
87% 78 Furman 35 36.3, 170 Tennessee - Chattanoog 7 15.2
87% 60 Northeastern 41 28.8, 131 James Madison 10 9.2
86% 118 Idaho State 42 39.0, 225 Southern Utah 17 20.2
86% 114 Ball State 41 30.1, 202 Buffalo 21 12.3
86% 39 Illinois 31 39.0, 137 Northwestern 24 20.8
86% 22 Colorado State 22 33.7, 91 New Mexico 14 14.8
85% 93 Maine 31 37.6, 176 New Hampshire 14 17.9
85% 85 Colgate 25 35.8, 164 Holy Cross 20 17.0
85% 75 Fordham 34 27.5, 182 Bucknell 7 9.6
85% 40 Louisville 41 34.3, 106 Alabama - Birmingham 21 16.3
84% 151 Brown 35 32.9, 222 Columbia 28 15.6
84% 132 Louisiana Tech 38 41.0, 214 Texas - El Paso 24 22.6
84% 26 Tennessee 24 33.9, 107 Vanderbilt 0 16.8
82% 207 Norfolk State 32 31.3, 233 Morris Brown 19 15.0
81% 108 Memphis State 38 32.7, 185 Army 10 16.8
81% 94 Wofford 34 35.2, 186 Elon 9 20.7
81% 65 Marshall 24 34.6, 153 Ohio 21 19.6
79% 139 Alabama A&M 39 23.8, 216 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 19 11.2
78% 38 Boston College 36 30.2, 101 Temple 14 19.0
78% 27 Louisiana State 14 32.5, 58 Mississippi 13 20.3
76% 175 Southern Methodist 24 28.8, 215 Tulsa 21 18.9
76% 150 Akron 48 32.4, 217 Kent State 10 22.5
76% 61 Utah 13 28.8, 103 Brigham Young 6 17.5
75% 31 Oregon State 45 31.9, 50 Oregon 24 22.5
73% 157 Princeton 38 25.9, 192 Dartmouth 30 17.5
73% 46 California 30 41.9, 79 Stanford 7 32.7
73% 7 Oklahoma 60 34.3, 14 Texas Tech 15 25.9
72% 3 Southern California 52 27.4, 21 California - Los Angel 21 19.6
70% 81 Fresno State 19 38.2, 126 San Jose State 16 31.4
70% 70 Wisconsin 49 27.2, 88 Minnesota 31 19.9
69% 37 Arkansas 26 22.9, 87 Mississippi State 19 16.1
68% 133 Eastern Kentucky 45 29.9, 193 Tennessee State 20 23.6
68% 54 Dayton 28 27.7, 96 Morehead State 0 21.6
67% 200 California Poly 28 31.2, 210 Weber State 26 25.7
64% 129 Massachusetts 48 23.9, 184 Rhode Island 21 19.1
64% 51 Clemson 27 21.0, 64 South Carolina 20 16.5
64% 43 Toledo 33 33.7, 82 Northern Illinois 30 28.3
63% 105 Bethune - Cookman 37 26.2, 121 Florida A&M 10 22.0
60% 142 New Mexico State 35 32.9, 172 Idaho 31 30.2
60% 141 Western Michigan 35 26.9, 179 Central Michigan 10 24.9
60% 119 Harvard 20 21.9, 113 Yale 13 19.4
57% 17 Ohio State 14 19.9, 10 Michigan 9 18.6
53% 122 North Carolina 23 22.1, 143 Duke 21 21.5
52% 203 Sam Houston State 21 23.0, 189 Southwest Texas State 14 22.6
50% 135 Murray State 37 37.6, 111 Eastern Illinois 35 37.6
50% 57 Villanova 38 19.8, 73 Delaware 34 19.8
43% 100 North Texas 30 18.6, 109 Middle Tennessee State 20 20.0
39% 146 Northwestern State 42 17.1, 144 Stephen F. Austin 35 20.1
38% 72 Central Florida 48 26.0, 69 Miami - Ohio 31 29.3
38% 68 Hawaii 20 30.6, 36 Cincinnati 19 34.3
34% 110 Lafayette 14 21.9, 77 Lehigh 7 27.4
33% 219 Northeast Louisiana 34 22.7, 180 Southwestern Louisiana 10 28.6
30% 41 West Virginia 21 20.7, 25 Virginia Tech 18 28.2
30% 24 Washington 29 23.1, 13 Washington State 26 30.8
29% 102 Richmond 35 20.6, 84 William & Mary 13 28.5
25% 67 Virginia 48 17.5, 18 Maryland 13 27.1
25% 44 North Carolina State 17 22.1, 9 Florida State 7 31.8
24% 19 Auburn 17 17.7, 5 Alabama 7 28.0
23% 221 Florida Atlantic 31 15.2, 156 Florida International 21 26.2
23% 171 Morgan State 52 20.4, 97 Hampton 42 32.4
23% 115 Tulane 31 10.2, 49 Southern Mississippi 10 22.0
23% 99 Connecticut 37 23.2, 56 Iowa State 20 36.2
22% 128 Montana State 10 16.2, 90 Montana 7 28.3
21% 194 South Carolina State 26 8.5, 124 North Carolina A&T 9 20.4
17% 220 Delaware State 14 17.1, 163 Howard 7 33.8
16% 127 San Diego State 38 18.5, 63 Air Force 34 37.1
16% 98 East Carolina 31 20.7, 23 Texas Christian 28 37.1
14% 218 Georgetown 24 17.2, 125 Towson 16 38.2
14% 152 Albany 24 14.8, 48 Duquesne 0 33.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.05 16 1.06 24 0.67 28 0.96 12 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 87 62 67.1 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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