prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 2 Miami - Florida 56 37.2, 30 Virginia Tech 45 10.1
85% 54 Hawaii 41 36.8, 119 San Diego State 40 18.8
79% 27 Georgia Southern 31 25.2, 75 Maine 7 12.9
77% 7 Georgia 30 28.9, 24 Arkansas 3 17.7
67% 85 Fresno State 45 36.1, 127 Louisiana Tech 13 30.7
65% 49 Villanova 24 34.4, 56 Fordham 10 28.9
63% 6 Oklahoma 29 30.0, 10 Colorado 7 25.9
62% 66 McNeese State 24 24.1, 71 Montana 20 20.4
59% 175 Navy 58 28.7, 188 Army 12 26.7
53% 52 Cincinnati 42 31.0, 64 East Carolina 26 30.5
51% 53 Marshall 49 35.5, 40 Toledo 45 35.3
39% 51 Western Kentucky 31 18.9, 58 Western Illinois 28 21.4
37% 29 Washington State 48 22.0, 26 California - Los Angel 27 26.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.83 6 1.05 2 1.28 1 1.18 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 11 8.7 1.26
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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