prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 91 Bethune - Cookman 62 55.2, 238 Savannah State 12 4.2
92% 4 Kansas State 41 47.7, 142 Troy State 5 2.3
91% 61 Minnesota 49 51.9, 221 Tulsa 10 8.7
91% 47 Texas A&M 26 44.6, 209 Arkansas State 11 4.4
91% 26 Louisiana State 49 49.4, 199 Northeast Louisiana 7 5.7
91% 25 Texas Tech 58 52.7, 190 Southern Methodist 10 10.7
91% 20 Oregon State 40 51.7, 178 Sacramento State 7 12.7
91% 19 Michigan 45 47.9, 173 Central Michigan 7 8.2
91% 5 Texas 66 53.0, 134 New Mexico State 7 9.1
91% 3 Oklahoma 37 39.4, 87 North Texas 3 3.5
90% 144 The Citadel 64 45.1, 235 Charleston Southern 10 11.1
90% 99 Arizona 42 42.7, 224 Texas - El Paso 7 8.5
90% 72 South Carolina 14 36.5, 194 Southwestern Louisiana 7 5.3
90% 21 North Carolina State 59 44.4, 147 Western Carolina 20 10.9
90% 15 Washington State 25 56.2, 176 Idaho 0 15.5
90% 11 Penn State 23 41.1, 101 Temple 10 11.7
89% 197 Texas Southern 42 40.6, 237 Prairie View 3 13.1
89% 155 Murray State 34 58.4, 240 Valparaiso 0 16.4
89% 70 Furman 24 50.0, 212 Elon 7 15.6
89% 44 Iowa State 17 43.8, 172 Northern Iowa 10 14.2
89% 1 Miami - Florida 48 62.8, 160 Louisiana Tech 9 16.2
88% 136 James Madison 48 35.4, 222 Liberty 6 10.0
87% 129 Nevada - Reno 24 52.4, 234 Southern Utah 23 21.6
87% 34 Virginia 27 39.3, 127 Duke 0 15.3
86% 107 New Mexico 72 31.4, 195 Southwest Texas State 8 11.5
86% 30 Villanova 41 41.9, 114 Hampton 6 19.6
86% 14 Florida State 37 38.9, 115 North Carolina 0 15.0
86% 10 Iowa 21 39.8, 81 Miami - Ohio 3 17.1
85% 16 Virginia Tech 49 36.4, 82 Central Florida 28 16.6
84% 49 Bowling Green 63 37.2, 113 Eastern Kentucky 13 18.4
82% 104 Memphis State 40 32.7, 179 Tennessee Tech 10 16.5
82% 95 Utah 40 38.7, 165 Utah State 20 21.2
81% 93 Connecticut 34 38.0, 162 Indiana 10 21.3
81% 8 Ohio State 28 29.1, 40 Washington 9 14.6
81% 6 Georgia 30 34.6, 77 Clemson 0 17.9
80% 32 Tennessee 24 28.5, 88 Fresno State 6 14.4
79% 161 New Hampshire 70 27.4, 207 Central Connecticut 20 14.4
79% 48 Marshall 45 35.9, 96 Hofstra 21 21.4
79% 22 California 34 35.3, 73 Southern Mississippi 2 19.1
79% 9 Alabama 40 30.0, 36 South Florida 17 16.9
78% 119 Ball State 31 27.6, 177 Indiana State 7 15.8
77% 69 Cincinnati 40 38.9, 102 East Carolina 3 26.2
77% 58 Mississippi 24 34.0, 118 Vanderbilt 21 22.6
76% 149 Illinois State 27 38.8, 189 Drake 13 27.7
76% 18 Colorado 42 30.8, 53 Colorado State 35 20.3
75% 2 Southern California 23 30.2, 13 Auburn 0 20.9
74% 146 Alabama - Birmingham 24 33.8, 203 Baylor 19 24.3
73% 184 Rutgers 24 25.9, 206 Buffalo 10 17.8
72% 180 Southern 29 26.5, 217 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 18.6
71% 188 Alcorn State 37 30.2, 218 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 10 22.6
71% 108 Sacred Heart 24 22.4, 174 Saint Peter's 19 15.0
69% 79 Air Force 49 26.4, 89 Wofford 0 19.5
69% 60 Oregon 42 31.5, 100 Mississippi State 34 24.3
68% 109 Northwestern State 23 32.2, 122 Jackson State 7 25.6
68% 80 Hawaii 40 35.4, 92 Appalachian State 17 28.4
67% 45 Texas Christian 38 25.3, 94 Tulane 35 19.5
67% 24 Florida 65 22.1, 52 San Jose State 3 9.7
64% 106 Michigan State 26 29.8, 116 Western Michigan 21 24.9
63% 66 Missouri 22 32.0, 71 Illinois 15 27.6
63% 35 Nebraska 17 31.6, 38 Oklahoma State 7 27.3
62% 159 Northwestern 28 36.9, 198 Kansas 20 33.1
62% 151 Houston 48 28.0, 153 Rice 14 24.4
61% 182 Navy 37 38.5, 191 Virginia Military 10 35.0
59% 148 Northern Arizona 44 21.9, 139 Saint Mary's 3 20.3
57% 133 San Diego State 19 28.9, 123 Eastern Washington 9 27.6
49% 156 Ohio 17 30.1, 130 Southeast Missouri Sta 3 30.3
37% 175 Jacksonville State 9 17.1, 166 Alabama A&M 3 21.2
36% 67 Louisville 40 26.8, 56 Kentucky 24 31.6
36% 62 Montana 30 18.9, 57 Maine 20 23.4
34% 51 Wisconsin 24 21.3, 42 West Virginia 17 26.6
33% 164 Wyoming 21 24.0, 110 Montana State 10 29.8
32% 215 Eastern Michigan 28 20.7, 181 East Tennessee State 21 27.4
31% 163 Morgan State 19 26.9, 103 Towson 16 34.2
29% 208 Tennessee State 37 20.8, 157 South Carolina State 20 28.6
28% 193 Alabama State 38 23.9, 154 Florida A&M 22 32.1
24% 121 Brigham Young 24 15.8, 64 Georgia Tech 13 26.3
23% 239 Tennessee - Martin 21 21.0, 227 Austin Peay 20 33.3
23% 126 Nevada - Las Vegas 28 24.7, 68 Toledo 18 37.0
23% 59 Wake Forest 32 18.9, 27 Boston College 28 30.2
22% 85 Northern Illinois 20 18.9, 17 Maryland 13 32.0
20% 225 Samford 31 24.3, 187 Tennessee - Chattanoog 23 40.4
19% 158 Bucknell 28 8.5, 65 Duquesne 21 25.0
18% 204 Kent State 41 19.0, 141 Akron 38 35.7
15% 211 Florida Atlantic 20 17.1, 124 Middle Tennessee State 19 37.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.20 19 0.96 23 0.86 26 1.03 13 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 84 65 65.6 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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