rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 44 Arkansas over 219 Tulsa 2 Georgia over 190 Middle Tennessee State 16 Georgia Southern over 238 Savannah State 17 Iowa over 214 Buffalo 3 Kansas State over 47 McNeese State 77 Massachusetts over 232 Central Connecticut 56 Northern Illinois over 195 Tennessee Tech 12 Ohio State over 138 San Diego State 98 Southern over 239 Prairie View 1 Southern California over 96 Brigham Young 103 Toledo over 231 Liberty 124 Wagner over 236 La Salle 80-90% chance of victory: 57 Western Illinois over 202 Eastern Michigan 146 Alcorn State over 222 Grambling 26 Louisiana State over 113 Arizona 194 Arkansas State over 235 Tennessee - Martin 90 Connecticut over 221 Army 13 Boise State over 116 Idaho State 11 California over 53 Colorado State 102 Bucknell over 205 Delaware State 7 Florida State over 50 Maryland 69 Colgate over 182 Georgetown 99 Nevada - Las Vegas over 207 Kansas 87 Lafayette over 152 Marist 45 Lehigh over 130 Holy Cross 22 Michigan over 111 Houston 109 Michigan State over 188 Rutgers 70 Minnesota over 148 Troy State 33 Nebraska over 180 Utah State 95 North Texas over 210 Baylor 41 Northeastern over 114 Albany 23 Air Force over 153 Northwestern 52 Oklahoma State over 149 Wyoming 58 Oregon over 176 Nevada - Reno 35 Pittsburgh over 167 Kent State 36 Fordham over 175 Rhode Island 61 South Florida over 150 Nicholls State 15 Villanova over 89 Temple 42 Texas Christian over 158 Navy 132 Vanderbilt over 213 Tennessee - Chattanooga 14 Virginia Tech over 107 James Madison 54 Washington over 183 Indiana 40 Wisconsin over 192 Akron 70-80% chance of victory: 27 Oregon State over 93 Fresno State 223 Arkansas - Pine Bluff over 234 Mississippi Valley State 73 New Hampshire over 177 Central Michigan 21 Colorado over 39 California - Los Angeles 200 Davidson over 218 Virginia Military 66 Delaware over 108 The Citadel 71 West Virginia over 155 East Carolina 76 Illinois over 139 Illinois State 74 Iowa State over 129 Ohio 79 Kentucky over 144 Murray State 5 Miami - Florida over 8 Florida 24 Dayton over 97 Morehead State 80 Syracuse over 181 North Carolina 134 Stephen F. Austin over 208 Northeast Louisiana 25 Penn State over 62 Boston College 166 Sacramento State over 204 Saint Mary's 29 Virginia over 100 South Carolina 121 Stanford over 168 San Jose State 196 California Poly over 225 Texas - El Paso 20 Texas Tech over 48 New Mexico 201 Weber State over 217 Southern Utah 78 William & Mary over 137 Western Michigan 75 Bethune - Cookman over 133 Alabama State 60-70% chance of victory: 91 Southern Mississippi over 143 Alabama - Birmingham 6 Oklahoma over 10 Alabama 157 Tennessee State over 198 Alabama A&M 59 Arizona State over 67 Northern Arizona 60 Missouri over 112 Ball State 83 Furman over 119 Clemson 117 Appalachian State over 165 Eastern Kentucky 135 Morgan State over 164 Florida A&M 55 Auburn over 105 Georgia Tech 68 Maine over 106 Hofstra 161 Florida International over 197 Indiana State 154 Saint Peter's over 191 Monmouth 145 Montana State over 147 Gardner - Webb 38 Notre Dame over 34 Washington State 18 Bowling Green over 46 Purdue 172 Southeast Missouri State over 193 Southern Illinois 84 Texas A&M over 85 Utah 162 Texas Southern over 179 Howard 160 Wofford over 185 South Carolina State 50-60% chance of victory: 178 Duke over 159 Western Carolina 141 Eastern Washington over 163 Idaho 128 Jackson State over 118 North Carolina A&T 170 Louisiana - Lafayette over 151 Louisiana Tech 65 Mississippi over 81 Memphis State 211 Iona over 224 Siena 32 Tennessee over 30 Marshall 104 Tulane over 86 Northwestern State 19 North Carolina State over 31 Wake Forest
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