prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 98 Southern 62 45.8, 239 Prairie View 7 2.0
92% 44 Arkansas 45 53.0, 219 Tulsa 13 5.5
92% 17 Iowa 56 51.4, 214 Buffalo 7 2.0
92% 16 Georgia Southern 35 75.4, 238 Savannah State 0 2.5
92% 2 Georgia 29 54.5, 190 Middle Tennessee State 10 1.9
92% 1 Southern California 35 47.8, 96 Brigham Young 18 2.8
91% 124 Wagner 10 46.5, 236 La Salle 6 9.3
91% 103 Toledo 49 48.9, 231 Liberty 3 13.8
91% 77 Massachusetts 51 52.2, 232 Central Connecticut 7 6.9
91% 56 Northern Illinois 42 42.4, 195 Tennessee Tech 17 9.7
91% 12 Ohio State 16 36.6, 138 San Diego State 13 3.1
90% 40 Wisconsin 48 48.0, 192 Akron 31 15.9
90% 33 Nebraska 31 45.5, 180 Utah State 7 13.7
90% 3 Kansas State 55 43.0, 47 McNeese State 14 16.0
89% 13 Boise State 62 40.0, 116 Idaho State 0 12.0
88% 95 North Texas 52 33.7, 210 Baylor 14 6.5
88% 90 Connecticut 48 42.2, 221 Army 21 13.9
88% 58 Oregon 31 45.1, 176 Nevada - Reno 23 18.6
88% 54 Washington 38 42.4, 183 Indiana 13 14.2
88% 35 Pittsburgh 43 42.1, 167 Kent State 3 12.1
87% 194 Arkansas State 63 34.1, 235 Tennessee - Martin 6 10.3
87% 42 Texas Christian 17 44.0, 158 Navy 3 17.0
87% 36 Fordham 63 40.1, 175 Rhode Island 28 13.2
87% 14 Virginia Tech 43 36.5, 107 James Madison 0 10.1
86% 132 Vanderbilt 51 35.5, 213 Tennessee - Chattanoog 6 14.0
86% 23 Air Force 22 41.7, 153 Northwestern 21 16.8
86% 22 Michigan 50 40.4, 111 Houston 3 17.7
86% 7 Florida State 35 29.6, 50 Maryland 10 5.9
85% 61 South Florida 27 35.4, 150 Nicholls State 17 13.8
85% 57 Western Illinois 34 46.4, 202 Eastern Michigan 12 20.6
85% 45 Lehigh 38 38.2, 130 Holy Cross 20 17.3
84% 70 Minnesota 48 29.2, 148 Troy State 7 11.4
84% 69 Colgate 20 32.3, 182 Georgetown 19 12.6
84% 41 Northeastern 51 36.5, 114 Albany 0 17.3
83% 109 Michigan State 44 33.2, 188 Rutgers 28 15.6
83% 52 Oklahoma State 48 37.3, 149 Wyoming 24 14.7
82% 102 Bucknell 33 31.8, 205 Delaware State 28 14.1
81% 26 Louisiana State 59 28.1, 113 Arizona 13 12.3
81% 15 Villanova 23 30.4, 89 Temple 20 14.6
80% 87 Lafayette 49 35.7, 152 Marist 0 20.6
79% 80 Syracuse 49 33.9, 181 North Carolina 47 19.0
79% 76 Illinois 49 23.2, 139 Illinois State 22 8.6
77% 134 Stephen F. Austin 23 33.0, 208 Northeast Louisiana 21 21.5
77% 71 West Virginia 48 31.8, 155 East Carolina 7 19.1
77% 24 Dayton 12 29.0, 97 Morehead State 0 17.4
76% 79 Kentucky 37 30.7, 144 Murray State 6 16.3
76% 75 Bethune - Cookman 31 35.1, 133 Alabama State 26 24.3
76% 74 Iowa State 48 23.4, 129 Ohio 20 9.8
75% 223 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 27 22.6, 234 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 13.2
75% 166 Sacramento State 69 27.2, 204 Saint Mary's 19 17.0
75% 66 Delaware 41 29.2, 108 The Citadel 7 18.1
74% 196 California Poly 34 32.0, 225 Texas - El Paso 13 22.9
74% 121 Stanford 31 33.2, 168 San Jose State 10 21.0
73% 201 Weber State 13 37.8, 217 Southern Utah 3 28.7
73% 21 Colorado 16 33.6, 39 California - Los Angel 14 24.9
73% 5 Miami - Florida 38 30.9, 8 Florida 33 21.3
72% 20 Texas Tech 42 41.9, 48 New Mexico 28 32.0
70% 160 Wofford 35 20.6, 185 South Carolina State 13 13.4
68% 60 Missouri 35 25.7, 112 Ball State 7 18.8
66% 59 Arizona State 34 32.7, 67 Northern Arizona 14 26.2
65% 162 Texas Southern 27 25.8, 179 Howard 20 20.5
64% 91 Southern Mississippi 17 20.7, 143 Alabama - Birmingham 12 15.1
63% 145 Montana State 38 22.0, 147 Gardner - Webb 3 18.2
63% 18 Bowling Green 27 37.2, 46 Purdue 26 32.5
62% 84 Texas A&M 28 19.8, 85 Utah 26 16.4
62% 68 Maine 44 24.3, 106 Hofstra 21 20.5
62% 38 Notre Dame 29 16.2, 34 Washington State 26 13.1
60% 32 Tennessee 34 23.5, 30 Marshall 24 21.5
60% 6 Oklahoma 20 23.8, 10 Alabama 13 21.3
58% 211 Iona 19 11.0, 224 Siena 14 9.4
55% 178 Duke 29 20.4, 159 Western Carolina 3 19.5
54% 104 Tulane 27 24.5, 86 Northwestern State 24 23.6
53% 141 Eastern Washington 8 20.5, 163 Idaho 5 19.8
49% 151 Louisiana Tech 34 20.5, 170 Louisiana - Lafayette 3 20.7
46% 81 Memphis State 44 25.4, 65 Mississippi 34 26.3
42% 31 Wake Forest 38 32.0, 19 North Carolina State 24 33.7
41% 118 North Carolina A&T 10 19.9, 128 Jackson State 7 21.6
39% 198 Alabama A&M 31 16.4, 157 Tennessee State 24 19.6
39% 119 Clemson 28 14.0, 83 Furman 17 17.5
38% 197 Indiana State 13 15.7, 161 Florida International 10 19.1
38% 164 Florida A&M 26 29.0, 135 Morgan State 7 32.5
36% 191 Monmouth 24 11.9, 154 Saint Peter's 0 16.5
33% 165 Eastern Kentucky 35 19.6, 117 Appalachian State 7 26.0
32% 193 Southern Illinois 28 19.6, 172 Southeast Missouri Sta 7 27.0
31% 105 Georgia Tech 17 10.4, 55 Auburn 3 18.3
29% 137 Western Michigan 56 22.7, 78 William & Mary 24 30.5
26% 218 Virginia Military 31 21.0, 200 Davidson 9 30.7
25% 93 Fresno State 16 18.4, 27 Oregon State 14 28.1
24% 100 South Carolina 31 9.5, 29 Virginia 7 21.5
23% 177 Central Michigan 40 27.4, 73 New Hampshire 33 42.7
22% 62 Boston College 27 17.1, 25 Penn State 14 28.5
18% 207 Kansas 46 16.9, 99 Nevada - Las Vegas 24 34.8
18% 53 Colorado State 23 22.7, 11 California 21 39.9
13% 222 Grambling 40 7.0, 146 Alcorn State 28 29.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.00 19 0.90 23 0.98 31 1.06 12 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 94 73 72.0 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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