rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 16 Bowling Green over 229 Liberty 89 Colgate over 222 Buffalo 32 Colorado State over 203 Weber State 11 Florida over 143 Florida A&M 2 Florida State over 61 Georgia Tech 7 Boise State over 191 Idaho 4 Miami - Florida over 184 East Carolina 88 Mississippi over 206 Northeast Louisiana 34 Montana over 172 Sam Houston State 3 Oklahoma over 87 Fresno State 25 Oregon State over 177 New Mexico State 14 Northeastern over 186 Rhode Island 101 San Diego State over 234 Texas - El Paso 80-90% chance of victory: 195 East Tennessee State over 240 Tennessee - Martin 17 Alabama over 78 Kentucky 59 Arizona State over 176 Utah State 160 Albany over 236 Central Connecticut 104 Central Florida over 196 Florida Atlantic 82 Clemson over 154 Middle Tennessee State 131 Morehead State over 228 Coastal Carolina 125 San Diego over 213 Davidson 117 Duke over 204 Rice 85 Duquesne over 212 Butler 10 Georgia over 64 South Carolina 166 Idaho State over 225 Northern Colorado 9 Iowa over 69 Iowa State 1 Kansas State over 37 Massachusetts 137 Houston over 215 Louisiana - Lafayette 13 Louisiana State over 68 Western Illinois 52 Maine over 153 Florida International 47 Missouri over 111 Eastern Illinois 26 Villanova over 135 New Hampshire 106 Northwestern State over 199 Delaware State 36 Minnesota over 164 Ohio 58 Oklahoma State over 152 Southwest Missouri State 42 Pittsburgh over 145 Ball State 107 Sacred Heart over 214 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 6 Southern California over 46 Hawaii 133 Stephen F. Austin over 218 Southern Utah 128 Stony Brook over 224 Siena 5 Texas over 45 Arkansas 31 Lafayette over 115 Towson 21 Wisconsin over 150 Nevada - Las Vegas 70-80% chance of victory: 20 California over 86 Utah 49 Marshall over 96 Toledo 48 Air Force over 79 North Texas 123 Alabama State over 174 Alcorn State 60 Oregon over 140 Arizona 162 Arkansas State over 210 Southeast Missouri State 202 Rutgers over 230 Army 232 Austin Peay over 237 Valparaiso 97 Sacramento State over 175 California Poly 113 Eastern Kentucky over 169 Central Michigan 22 Boston College over 75 Connecticut 51 Delaware over 102 Richmond 119 Hofstra over 188 Elon 120 Holy Cross over 159 Georgetown 124 Hampton over 185 Howard 157 Indiana over 193 Indiana State 127 Youngstown State over 198 Kent State 81 Maryland over 142 The Citadel 15 Michigan over 29 Notre Dame 94 Michigan State over 114 Louisiana Tech 132 Monmouth over 183 Robert Morris 147 Morgan State over 180 South Carolina State 50 New Mexico over 71 Brigham Young 90 Miami - Ohio over 148 Northwestern 207 Norfolk State over 235 Savannah State 108 Southern Illinois over 171 Murray State 201 Tennessee Tech over 233 Tennessee - Chattanooga 28 Wake Forest over 63 Purdue 23 West Virginia over 55 Cincinnati 138 Wyoming over 173 Kansas 60-70% chance of victory: 197 Saint Peter's over 208 Marist 189 Akron over 194 Eastern Michigan 144 Alabama - Birmingham over 165 Troy State 43 California - Los Angeles over 57 Illinois 24 Colorado over 39 Washington State 178 Wagner over 200 Iona 27 Fordham over 54 Lehigh 35 Georgia Southern over 70 McNeese State 40 Nebraska over 44 Penn State 30 Ohio State over 41 North Carolina State 38 Louisville over 92 Syracuse 109 Tulane over 110 Mississippi State 77 Vanderbilt over 74 Auburn 136 William & Mary over 182 Virginia Military 67 Western Michigan over 80 Virginia 50-60% chance of victory: 209 Baylor over 205 Southern Methodist 139 Portland State over 130 Nicholls State 100 Southern Mississippi over 72 Memphis State 161 Tennessee State over 156 Jackson State 223 Tulsa over 219 Southwest Texas State 170 Alabama A&M over 181 Grambling 73 North Carolina A&T over 76 Southern
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