prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 101 San Diego State 34 45.1, 234 Texas - El Paso 0 8.9
92% 25 Oregon State 28 45.7, 177 New Mexico State 16 7.2
92% 16 Bowling Green 62 71.6, 229 Liberty 3 5.8
92% 11 Florida 63 48.0, 143 Florida A&M 3 7.5
92% 7 Boise State 24 50.9, 191 Idaho 10 5.2
92% 4 Miami - Florida 38 63.9, 184 East Carolina 3 5.7
92% 3 Oklahoma 52 40.4, 87 Fresno State 28 5.7
92% 2 Florida State 14 34.3, 61 Georgia Tech 13 4.4
91% 89 Colgate 38 42.0, 222 Buffalo 15 8.5
91% 88 Mississippi 59 47.6, 206 Northeast Louisiana 14 18.3
91% 34 Montana 38 43.7, 172 Sam Houston State 14 10.9
91% 14 Northeastern 42 51.0, 186 Rhode Island 39 10.7
90% 128 Stony Brook 31 33.3, 224 Siena 3 3.8
90% 107 Sacred Heart 37 34.2, 214 Saint Francis - Pennsy 12 5.6
90% 32 Colorado State 31 48.3, 203 Weber State 7 4.7
89% 85 Duquesne 49 45.5, 212 Butler 0 13.8
88% 195 East Tennessee State 14 38.2, 240 Tennessee - Martin 7 8.3
88% 59 Arizona State 26 46.5, 176 Utah State 16 20.8
88% 52 Maine 24 33.0, 153 Florida International 14 5.8
88% 42 Pittsburgh 42 29.9, 145 Ball State 21 5.3
88% 10 Georgia 31 24.6, 64 South Carolina 7 4.2
88% 1 Kansas State 38 44.5, 37 Massachusetts 7 20.1
86% 160 Albany 28 38.2, 236 Central Connecticut 10 16.8
86% 117 Duke 27 29.1, 204 Rice 24 7.2
86% 106 Northwestern State 43 38.4, 199 Delaware State 6 15.7
86% 58 Oklahoma State 42 39.8, 152 Southwest Missouri Sta 3 16.4
86% 13 Louisiana State 35 35.6, 68 Western Illinois 7 15.3
85% 17 Alabama 27 35.4, 78 Kentucky 17 15.6
84% 36 Minnesota 42 40.7, 164 Ohio 20 17.6
84% 6 Southern California 61 40.6, 46 Hawaii 32 17.9
83% 131 Morehead State 31 34.7, 228 Coastal Carolina 6 9.5
83% 82 Clemson 37 32.2, 154 Middle Tennessee State 14 12.9
83% 26 Villanova 48 43.0, 135 New Hampshire 14 22.2
82% 166 Idaho State 42 32.6, 225 Northern Colorado 33 9.5
82% 137 Houston 21 29.6, 215 Louisiana - Lafayette 14 14.2
82% 104 Central Florida 33 42.7, 196 Florida Atlantic 29 20.1
81% 125 San Diego 54 39.0, 213 Davidson 7 21.9
81% 47 Missouri 37 40.3, 111 Eastern Illinois 0 23.6
81% 9 Iowa 40 32.0, 69 Iowa State 21 15.4
79% 162 Arkansas State 21 24.2, 210 Southeast Missouri Sta 3 10.1
79% 51 Delaware 44 22.7, 102 Richmond 14 9.3
78% 132 Monmouth 17 15.8, 183 Robert Morris 10 4.7
78% 108 Southern Illinois 32 24.8, 171 Murray State 7 8.8
78% 81 Maryland 61 31.1, 142 The Citadel 0 15.6
78% 60 Oregon 48 37.0, 140 Arizona 10 24.1
77% 123 Alabama State 49 37.5, 174 Alcorn State 28 25.3
77% 120 Holy Cross 42 34.3, 159 Georgetown 34 22.4
75% 207 Norfolk State 7 25.6, 235 Savannah State 3 15.7
75% 201 Tennessee Tech 35 30.5, 233 Tennessee - Chattanoog 10 20.6
75% 90 Miami - Ohio 44 30.3, 148 Northwestern 14 19.6
73% 157 Indiana 33 25.7, 193 Indiana State 3 17.2
73% 22 Boston College 24 31.1, 75 Connecticut 14 20.7
72% 124 Hampton 17 30.6, 185 Howard 14 21.3
72% 48 Air Force 34 25.0, 79 North Texas 21 15.4
71% 202 Rutgers 36 35.5, 230 Army 21 27.1
71% 15 Michigan 38 23.8, 29 Notre Dame 0 15.6
68% 43 California - Los Angel 6 29.2, 57 Illinois 3 22.1
68% 30 Ohio State 44 26.1, 41 North Carolina State 38 19.5
67% 40 Nebraska 18 18.8, 44 Penn State 10 14.0
67% 38 Louisville 30 41.6, 92 Syracuse 20 35.3
64% 178 Wagner 34 17.2, 200 Iona 17 12.4
63% 189 Akron 24 40.7, 194 Eastern Michigan 17 36.9
63% 136 William & Mary 34 34.2, 182 Virginia Military 24 29.2
63% 109 Tulane 31 31.4, 110 Mississippi State 28 27.2
59% 209 Baylor 10 27.6, 205 Southern Methodist 7 25.7
59% 161 Tennessee State 44 26.0, 156 Jackson State 14 24.1
56% 139 Portland State 44 20.2, 130 Nicholls State 37 19.1
54% 223 Tulsa 41 28.1, 219 Southwest Texas State 15 27.2
53% 100 Southern Mississippi 23 18.7, 72 Memphis State 6 18.1
49% 76 Southern 35 14.1, 73 North Carolina A&T 16 14.3
44% 181 Grambling 45 17.4, 170 Alabama A&M 14 18.7
39% 74 Auburn 45 14.6, 77 Vanderbilt 7 18.0
39% 54 Lehigh 23 28.2, 27 Fordham 16 31.8
37% 80 Virginia 59 23.0, 67 Western Michigan 16 28.8
37% 70 McNeese State 34 21.3, 35 Georgia Southern 15 25.8
33% 165 Troy State 20 15.6, 144 Alabama - Birmingham 9 22.1
32% 208 Marist 16 14.7, 197 Saint Peter's 14 20.9
31% 39 Washington State 47 24.4, 24 Colorado 26 32.2
29% 180 South Carolina State 27 17.9, 147 Morgan State 21 25.8
29% 169 Central Michigan 42 21.4, 113 Eastern Kentucky 41 29.9
29% 114 Louisiana Tech 20 25.1, 94 Michigan State 19 33.3
27% 237 Valparaiso 38 22.1, 232 Austin Peay 14 31.7
27% 173 Kansas 42 26.9, 138 Wyoming 35 36.8
27% 71 Brigham Young 10 26.1, 50 New Mexico 7 35.2
27% 55 Cincinnati 15 15.0, 23 West Virginia 13 25.1
26% 175 California Poly 31 27.8, 97 Sacramento State 17 39.4
23% 198 Kent State 16 14.5, 127 Youngstown State 13 26.9
22% 96 Toledo 24 26.6, 49 Marshall 17 39.6
22% 63 Purdue 16 22.8, 28 Wake Forest 10 35.0
21% 86 Utah 31 19.6, 20 California 24 32.9
20% 188 Elon 25 20.5, 119 Hofstra 23 37.2
19% 115 Towson 19 12.8, 31 Lafayette 13 29.1
18% 218 Southern Utah 22 15.3, 133 Stephen F. Austin 21 33.4
12% 150 Nevada - Las Vegas 23 16.2, 21 Wisconsin 5 48.1
10% 45 Arkansas 38 16.0, 5 Texas 28 39.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.29 15 0.82 30 0.76 30 1.02 13 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 95 69 73.6 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net