rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 57 Air Force over 193 Wyoming 88 Connecticut over 220 Buffalo 101 Sacred Heart over 230 Central Connecticut 15 Dayton over 236 Austin Peay 32 Fordham over 171 Columbia 1 Kansas State over 74 Marshall 33 Louisville over 237 Texas - El Paso 22 Minnesota over 212 Louisiana - Lafayette 25 Missouri over 161 Middle Tennessee State 27 Northeastern over 137 William & Mary 5 Oklahoma over 56 California - Los Angeles 49 Penn State over 183 Kent State 44 Purdue over 177 Arizona 11 Texas over 196 Rice 78 San Diego State over 215 Samford 59 South Carolina over 168 Alabama - Birmingham 152 South Carolina State over 235 Savannah State 47 Oklahoma State over 202 Southern Methodist 51 Wake Forest over 179 East Carolina 62 Washington over 162 Idaho 81 Western Illinois over 239 Tennessee - Martin 80-90% chance of victory: 12 Virginia Tech over 75 Texas A&M 17 Arkansas over 93 North Texas 112 Alabama State over 214 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 100 Tulane over 222 Army 108 Eastern Washington over 207 Southern Utah 4 Florida over 26 Tennessee 14 Florida State over 60 Colorado 83 Furman over 139 Richmond 188 Gardner - Webb over 228 Tennessee - Chattanooga 7 Iowa over 66 Arizona State 182 Marist over 227 Siena 194 Alabama A&M over 229 Mississippi Valley State 97 Northwestern State over 213 Northeast Louisiana 9 Pennsylvania over 69 Duquesne 109 Stony Brook over 164 Wagner 130 Troy State over 225 Southeast Louisiana 24 Washington State over 91 New Mexico 54 Western Kentucky over 115 Eastern Kentucky 90 Wisconsin over 157 North Carolina 70-80% chance of victory: 46 Hawaii over 99 Nevada - Las Vegas 18 Alabama over 35 Northern Illinois 98 Morehead State over 160 Appalachian State 3 Miami - Florida over 29 Boston College 221 Butler over 231 Davidson 48 Cincinnati over 95 Temple 113 Bucknell over 169 Cornell 80 Colgate over 133 Dartmouth 117 Duke over 173 Northwestern 150 Elon over 204 East Tennessee State 94 Bethune - Cookman over 151 Florida International 92 Fresno State over 110 Louisiana Tech 55 Georgia Tech over 84 Clemson 37 McNeese State over 121 Grambling 70 Harvard over 138 Holy Cross 72 Kentucky over 142 Indiana 217 Jacksonville over 232 Coastal Carolina 135 Kansas over 170 Jacksonville State 20 Maryland over 53 West Virginia 180 Murray State over 208 Indiana State 125 Navy over 199 Eastern Michigan 85 Notre Dame over 128 Michigan State 6 Michigan over 42 Oregon 10 Boise State over 43 Oregon State 38 Lehigh over 102 Princeton 189 Southwest Missouri State over 219 Southeast Missouri State 105 Syracuse over 127 Central Florida 87 Texas Christian over 120 Vanderbilt 68 Georgia Southern over 116 Wofford 73 Yale over 111 Towson 148 Youngstown State over 176 Florida Atlantic 60-70% chance of victory: 172 Akron over 186 Howard 118 Brown over 167 Albany 197 Sam Houston State over 210 Baylor 77 Brigham Young over 96 Stanford 106 Montana State over 136 California Poly 50 Colorado State over 67 Miami - Ohio 104 Mississippi State over 132 Houston 134 James Madison over 146 Hofstra 13 Louisiana State over 16 Georgia 64 Maine over 58 Massachusetts 191 Saint Peter's over 201 Robert Morris 224 California - Davis over 233 Southwest Texas State 175 Texas Southern over 187 Jackson State 28 Pittsburgh over 63 Toledo 143 Arkansas State over 200 Tulsa 211 Saint Francis - Pennsylv over 226 Valparaiso 190 Virginia Military over 203 Norfolk State 124 Tennessee State over 154 Florida A&M 50-60% chance of victory: 153 San Jose State over 144 Nevada - Reno 165 Stephen F. Austin over 140 Northern Iowa 155 Ball State over 145 Central Michigan 158 Eastern Illinois over 149 Illinois State 131 Monmouth over 163 Georgetown 45 Illinois over 36 California 41 North Carolina State over 30 Texas Tech 8 Bowling Green over 19 Ohio State 107 Northern Arizona over 126 Portland State 129 New Hampshire over 156 Rhode Island 185 Western Carolina over 174 The Citadel
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