rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 50 Texas Christian over 202 Arizona 19 Boise State over 157 Wyoming 32 Boston College over 148 Ball State 31 Dayton over 196 Saint Peter's 4 Florida State over 144 Duke 92 Duquesne over 225 La Salle 10 Maryland over 203 Eastern Michigan 64 Furman over 190 Gardner - Webb 89 Georgia Southern over 227 Tennessee - Chattanooga 16 Michigan over 150 Indiana 45 Montana over 159 Idaho 122 Montana State over 213 Northern Colorado 121 Nevada - Reno over 220 Southern Methodist 102 North Texas over 205 Louisiana - Lafayette 20 Ohio State over 140 Northwestern 177 Alabama A&M over 240 Prairie View 13 Purdue over 99 Notre Dame 136 Tennessee State over 239 Tennessee - Martin 14 Texas over 98 Tulane 7 Virginia Tech over 86 Connecticut 80-90% chance of victory: 74 South Florida over 226 Army 112 Akron over 214 Buffalo 1 Southern California over 43 California 72 Colgate over 145 Towson 114 Eastern Washington over 197 Weber State 82 Fresno State over 162 Portland State 81 Hawaii over 192 Rice 41 Delaware over 147 Hofstra 11 Florida over 75 Kentucky 179 Youngstown State over 236 Liberty 35 Massachusetts over 130 James Madison 85 Memphis State over 200 Arkansas State 9 Iowa over 105 Michigan State 17 Louisiana State over 116 Mississippi State 180 Jackson State over 231 Mississippi Valley State 103 New Mexico over 172 New Mexico State 101 Bethune - Cookman over 215 Norfolk State 21 North Carolina State over 110 North Carolina 24 Northern Illinois over 67 Iowa State 181 Robert Morris over 235 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 119 Sacramento State over 194 Idaho State 217 Howard over 238 Savannah State 69 Southern over 126 Alabama State 18 Tennessee over 47 South Carolina 29 Marshall over 137 Troy State 154 Utah State over 208 Northeast Louisiana 46 Yale over 153 Cornell 70-80% chance of victory: 25 Nebraska over 88 Southern Mississippi 117 Sacred Heart over 189 Albany 165 Western Carolina over 210 East Tennessee State 164 Florida A&M over 199 Delaware State 54 Illinois over 77 Wisconsin 120 Illinois State over 151 Florida Atlantic 131 Eastern Kentucky over 201 Jacksonville State 60 Lafayette over 113 Princeton 6 Pennsylvania over 36 Lehigh 56 Louisville over 97 Temple 118 Morehead State over 166 Drake 155 Nicholls State over 193 Texas Southern 95 Northern Arizona over 125 California Poly 33 Oregon State over 63 Arizona State 109 Navy over 186 Rutgers 79 San Diego over 149 Holy Cross 204 Sam Houston State over 233 Texas - El Paso 44 Pittsburgh over 96 Texas A&M 51 Washington over 94 Stanford 62 Maine over 138 William & Mary 111 Hampton over 174 Morgan State 60-70% chance of victory: 8 Arkansas over 28 Alabama 34 Western Kentucky over 59 Auburn 58 Air Force over 104 Brigham Young 65 California - Los Angeles over 90 San Diego State 134 Bucknell over 169 Columbia 68 Harvard over 70 Brown 211 Valparaiso over 224 Jacksonville 52 Missouri over 106 Kansas 128 Central Florida over 188 Kent State 48 Miami - Ohio over 53 Cincinnati 167 New Hampshire over 163 Dartmouth 115 Western Michigan over 171 Ohio 23 Minnesota over 55 Penn State 216 Samford over 219 Southeast Missouri State 221 Siena over 222 Central Connecticut 232 Southwest Texas State over 234 Southeast Louisiana 184 Stephen F. Austin over 182 Alcorn State 127 Stony Brook over 135 Monmouth 38 Toledo over 80 Syracuse 178 Tennessee Tech over 191 Murray State 93 Georgia Tech over 146 Vanderbilt 22 Villanova over 26 Northeastern 40 Virginia over 37 Wake Forest 160 Virginia Military over 168 Georgetown 161 Wagner over 187 Marist 50-60% chance of victory: 83 Colorado State over 73 Utah 141 Elon over 124 North Carolina A&T 195 Indiana State over 173 Eastern Illinois 57 Texas Tech over 78 Mississippi 107 Northern Iowa over 100 Northwestern State 27 Washington State over 39 Oregon 142 Richmond over 133 Rhode Island 176 The Citadel over 156 Appalachian State
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