prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 180 Alabama A&M 50 39.5, 240 Prairie View 10 6.5
92% 140 Tennessee State 41 53.7, 239 Tennessee - Martin 10 4.8
92% 104 North Texas 44 33.4, 206 Louisiana - Lafayette 23 4.7
92% 92 Georgia Southern 34 46.3, 227 Tennessee - Chattanoog 3 4.3
92% 44 Montana 41 39.3, 159 Idaho 28 11.1
92% 32 Dayton 47 36.9, 194 Saint Peter's 6 2.9
92% 31 Boston College 53 39.0, 150 Ball State 29 8.3
92% 20 Boise State 33 49.3, 151 Wyoming 17 15.7
92% 18 Ohio State 20 40.9, 133 Northwestern 0 7.3
92% 15 Michigan 31 46.9, 156 Indiana 17 6.6
92% 8 Maryland 37 56.4, 202 Eastern Michigan 13 6.2
92% 5 Florida State 56 43.9, 145 Duke 7 6.2
91% 93 Duquesne 62 47.1, 225 La Salle 14 7.4
91% 71 Furman 45 39.3, 191 Gardner - Webb 0 10.5
91% 48 Texas Christian 13 43.5, 199 Arizona 10 11.4
91% 13 Texas 63 47.1, 100 Tulane 18 20.6
91% 7 Virginia Tech 47 41.5, 86 Connecticut 13 16.0
90% 178 Youngstown State 34 30.2, 236 Liberty 3 7.2
90% 117 Nevada - Reno 12 37.8, 221 Southern Methodist 9 9.8
90% 74 South Florida 28 56.4, 226 Army 0 20.4
90% 14 Purdue 23 34.6, 102 Notre Dame 10 6.5
89% 96 Bethune - Cookman 56 35.9, 214 Norfolk State 14 8.6
89% 85 Memphis State 38 41.1, 200 Arkansas State 16 11.2
89% 36 Massachusetts 31 32.8, 128 James Madison 26 9.2
89% 21 North Carolina State 47 48.2, 108 North Carolina 34 22.7
89% 17 Louisiana State 41 40.0, 115 Mississippi State 6 18.0
88% 189 Robert Morris 36 34.9, 234 Saint Francis - Pennsy 6 7.8
88% 110 Akron 38 42.3, 219 Buffalo 21 20.8
88% 76 Hawaii 41 45.5, 188 Rice 21 20.8
88% 45 Yale 21 40.5, 153 Cornell 7 15.1
86% 39 Delaware 24 37.3, 147 Hofstra 14 18.8
85% 216 Howard 48 26.3, 238 Savannah State 3 9.2
85% 154 Utah State 28 38.8, 212 Northeast Louisiana 10 20.2
85% 103 New Mexico 24 36.1, 170 New Mexico State 17 18.1
83% 176 Jackson State 21 27.8, 231 Mississippi Valley Sta 17 9.8
83% 70 Colgate 26 34.0, 143 Towson 7 16.5
83% 63 Southern 35 39.3, 126 Alabama State 10 22.9
83% 58 Lafayette 28 27.4, 116 Princeton 13 11.1
83% 12 Florida 24 36.7, 77 Kentucky 21 20.7
82% 121 Sacramento State 47 40.6, 195 Idaho State 21 25.1
81% 24 Northern Illinois 24 34.0, 64 Iowa State 16 19.1
80% 160 Florida A&M 15 29.4, 201 Delaware State 14 16.0
80% 84 Fresno State 42 32.8, 162 Portland State 16 14.6
80% 25 Nebraska 38 18.7, 88 Southern Mississippi 14 7.7
80% 19 Tennessee 23 21.5, 47 South Carolina 20 8.5
79% 80 San Diego 46 45.8, 149 Holy Cross 45 29.2
78% 52 Louisville 21 30.9, 99 Temple 12 18.7
77% 113 Hampton 24 31.8, 175 Morgan State 21 20.2
76% 6 Pennsylvania 31 28.6, 34 Lehigh 24 17.8
75% 119 Morehead State 34 36.3, 168 Drake 17 24.6
75% 91 Northern Arizona 24 28.1, 118 California Poly 7 18.1
75% 54 Washington 28 28.3, 94 Stanford 17 17.7
74% 165 Western Carolina 28 19.9, 217 East Tennessee State 21 9.7
74% 33 Oregon State 45 23.9, 60 Arizona State 17 15.6
73% 114 Western Michigan 39 35.6, 179 Ohio 32 27.3
73% 43 Pittsburgh 37 31.0, 95 Texas A&M 26 22.8
72% 163 Nicholls State 64 33.2, 193 Texas Southern 5 24.3
69% 173 Tennessee Tech 49 25.4, 192 Murray State 24 18.7
68% 65 California - Los Angel 20 24.0, 90 San Diego State 10 16.1
67% 97 Georgia Tech 24 23.5, 146 Vanderbilt 17 17.9
67% 23 Minnesota 20 31.4, 53 Penn State 14 24.7
67% 22 Villanova 28 28.4, 26 Northeastern 7 22.2
65% 161 Virginia Military 42 28.5, 171 Georgetown 14 23.4
64% 232 Southwest Texas State 38 26.0, 235 Southeast Louisiana 17 19.7
64% 59 Air Force 24 25.5, 101 Brigham Young 10 20.9
62% 38 Virginia 27 28.7, 37 Wake Forest 24 25.1
62% 10 Arkansas 34 22.5, 27 Alabama 31 19.1
61% 66 Harvard 52 22.3, 67 Brown 14 18.9
61% 49 Miami - Ohio 42 26.2, 51 Cincinnati 37 22.8
60% 169 New Hampshire 42 36.5, 164 Dartmouth 17 34.4
59% 190 Stephen F. Austin 60 30.3, 182 Alcorn State 7 28.4
59% 167 The Citadel 24 29.4, 157 Appalachian State 21 27.7
56% 218 Samford 41 23.8, 213 Southeast Missouri Sta 31 22.3
55% 28 Washington State 55 31.5, 40 Oregon 16 30.5
53% 107 Northern Iowa 43 19.9, 98 Northwestern State 10 19.5
52% 196 Indiana State 23 19.1, 172 Eastern Illinois 7 18.8
49% 148 Columbia 19 25.2, 129 Bucknell 16 25.4
47% 61 Texas Tech 49 39.1, 78 Mississippi 45 39.6
45% 73 Utah 28 22.8, 82 Colorado State 21 23.8
40% 222 Jacksonville 34 19.8, 205 Valparaiso 27 22.0
39% 57 Auburn 48 13.8, 35 Western Kentucky 3 16.1
38% 136 Rhode Island 17 31.7, 130 Richmond 13 35.2
38% 127 North Carolina A&T 29 14.9, 125 Elon 14 18.2
36% 223 Central Connecticut 28 16.1, 220 Siena 10 20.5
33% 144 Monmouth 20 13.9, 131 Stony Brook 14 18.9
33% 106 Kansas 35 28.8, 55 Missouri 14 35.8
33% 83 Syracuse 34 30.7, 41 Toledo 7 36.4
32% 187 Marist 24 16.1, 158 Wagner 13 22.3
32% 184 Kent State 36 25.4, 139 Central Florida 16 31.9
30% 186 Albany 42 17.5, 120 Sacred Heart 7 24.3
27% 79 Wisconsin 38 18.5, 56 Illinois 20 26.7
26% 233 Texas - El Paso 59 16.2, 210 Sam Houston State 14 25.4
26% 152 Florida Atlantic 28 12.7, 122 Illinois State 10 21.2
24% 183 Rutgers 48 15.1, 111 Navy 27 24.8
21% 209 Jacksonville State 49 15.4, 138 Eastern Kentucky 14 30.5
15% 132 Troy State 33 10.1, 29 Marshall 24 31.2
15% 42 California 34 23.2, 1 Southern California 31 40.4
12% 197 Weber State 35 6.6, 112 Eastern Washington 23 26.4
11% 208 Northern Colorado 14 14.3, 123 Montana State 10 36.8
11% 105 Michigan State 20 13.0, 9 Iowa 10 36.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 1.14 22 0.84 19 0.97 30 0.97 18 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 100 76 77.1 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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