rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 3 Miami - Florida over 63 West Virginia 16 Bowling Green over 174 Central Michigan 7 Pennsylvania over 190 Dartmouth 31 Dayton over 209 Davidson 85 Duquesne over 229 Siena 139 Florida Atlantic over 231 Southwest Texas State 53 Lafayette over 195 Georgetown 142 Virginia Military over 236 Liberty 117 Monmouth over 213 Iona 23 Nebraska over 114 Troy State 27 Northern Illinois over 180 Ohio 32 Oklahoma State over 207 Louisiana - Lafayette 8 Virginia Tech over 148 Rutgers 106 Sacramento State over 230 California - Davis 67 McNeese State over 237 Southeast Louisiana 54 Southern over 216 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 92 Wofford over 218 Tennessee - Chattanooga 144 Tennessee Tech over 238 Tennessee - Martin 80 Texas Christian over 227 Army 13 Villanova over 118 James Madison 14 Washington State over 172 Arizona 129 Albany over 239 Savannah State 130 Grambling over 240 Prairie View 80-90% chance of victory: 156 Alabama A&M over 214 Texas Southern 173 Appalachian State over 210 East Tennessee State 4 Southern California over 77 Arizona State 72 Colorado over 203 Baylor 84 Bethune - Cookman over 166 Morgan State 165 Central Florida over 222 Buffalo 51 Colgate over 175 Cornell 42 Delaware over 119 William & Mary 185 Drake over 221 Jacksonville 115 Western Michigan over 205 Eastern Michigan 15 Florida over 62 Mississippi 37 Fordham over 146 Bucknell 90 Georgia Southern over 155 Florida International 17 North Carolina State over 78 Georgia Tech 108 Hampton over 206 Delaware State 52 Yale over 154 Holy Cross 5 Oklahoma over 75 Iowa State 30 Boise State over 105 Louisiana Tech 68 Maine over 163 Richmond 12 Maryland over 47 Clemson 46 Massachusetts over 124 New Hampshire 69 Memphis State over 179 Alabama - Birmingham 79 Michigan State over 137 Indiana 61 Montana over 128 California Poly 107 North Carolina A&T over 223 Norfolk State 36 Virginia over 113 North Carolina 22 Minnesota over 126 Northwestern 25 Purdue over 83 Illinois 120 Morehead State over 220 Valparaiso 48 Furman over 162 Western Carolina 50 Air Force over 161 Navy 70-80% chance of victory: 129 Albany over 193 Saint Peter's 64 Cincinnati over 95 Southern Mississippi 200 Gardner - Webb over 232 Coastal Carolina 40 Lehigh over 104 Connecticut 11 Georgia over 28 Alabama 81 Northern Iowa over 177 Illinois State 89 Southern Illinois over 183 Indiana State 228 La Salle over 234 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 38 Miami - Ohio over 96 Akron 101 Temple over 159 Middle Tennessee State 70 Nevada - Las Vegas over 141 Nevada - Reno 102 New Mexico over 150 Utah State 158 Montana State over 215 Saint Mary's 93 San Diego State over 110 Brigham Young 111 Stephen F. Austin over 171 Portland State 44 Texas Tech over 88 Texas A&M 181 Wagner over 204 Central Connecticut 99 Northern Arizona over 188 Weber State 136 Youngstown State over 170 Southwest Missouri State 60-70% chance of victory: 138 Houston over 186 East Carolina 56 Utah over 59 Oregon 20 Auburn over 21 Tennessee 122 Brown over 123 Rhode Island 191 Eastern Kentucky over 202 Samford 157 Eastern Washington over 192 Idaho State 26 Iowa over 18 Michigan 153 Kent State over 151 Ball State 131 Jacksonville State over 196 Murray State 160 New Mexico State over 182 Idaho 55 Penn State over 65 Wisconsin 109 Princeton over 121 Columbia 189 Rice over 187 San Jose State 169 Sacred Heart over 167 Marist 35 South Florida over 45 Louisville 197 Eastern Illinois over 219 Southeast Missouri State 211 Southern Methodist over 217 Texas - El Paso 87 Hawaii over 135 Tulsa 94 Western Illinois over 112 Western Kentucky 50-60% chance of victory: 208 Arkansas State over 201 Northeast Louisiana 226 Austin Peay over 225 Butler 24 Oregon State over 33 California 73 California - Los Angeles over 57 Washington 74 Fresno State over 86 Colorado State 29 Northeastern over 41 Harvard 116 Vanderbilt over 140 Mississippi State 147 Robert Morris over 132 Stony Brook 2 Kansas State over 6 Texas 176 The Citadel over 164 Elon 178 Florida A&M over 184 Jackson State
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