prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 209 Alcorn State 66 48.7, 240 Prairie View 0 15.1
92% 169 Virginia Military 50 47.0, 237 Charleston Southern 7 12.3
92% 144 Jacksonville State 34 43.6, 236 Tennessee - Martin 24 5.4
92% 131 South Carolina State 34 40.3, 226 Norfolk State 15 8.4
92% 129 Northwestern State 87 50.6, 238 Southeast Louisiana 27 5.8
92% 83 Duquesne 42 43.1, 221 Iona 29 15.0
92% 68 Lehigh 35 50.6, 227 Saint Mary's 7 4.8
92% 64 Toledo 49 45.4, 212 Eastern Michigan 14 8.4
92% 46 Mississippi 55 47.4, 197 Arkansas State 0 15.1
92% 42 Louisville 34 53.8, 222 Army 10 5.4
92% 41 Yale 40 40.9, 172 Dartmouth 17 12.9
92% 39 Albany 44 58.0, 232 Saint Francis - Pennsy 21 7.1
92% 35 Miami - Ohio 59 53.0, 218 Buffalo 3 6.9
92% 13 Maryland 33 38.0, 151 Duke 20 3.7
92% 3 Southern California 44 43.6, 93 Stanford 21 10.2
91% 123 Grambling 45 40.9, 224 Mississippi Valley Sta 6 9.8
91% 114 Sacred Heart 41 41.3, 228 Siena 14 9.5
91% 9 Pennsylvania 14 38.5, 95 Bucknell 13 8.4
90% 77 Montana 12 41.5, 190 Weber State 7 17.3
90% 75 Northern Iowa 22 31.2, 186 Indiana State 14 7.3
90% 49 Marshall 49 42.8, 181 Kent State 33 16.2
90% 24 Harvard 27 40.1, 157 Cornell 0 16.6
89% 141 Morehead State 49 32.8, 220 Austin Peay 0 8.7
89% 80 San Diego 41 60.5, 199 Drake 35 34.9
89% 11 Villanova 21 41.5, 115 Rhode Island 17 19.6
88% 189 Gardner - Webb 27 38.1, 233 Liberty 17 16.2
88% 98 Louisiana Tech 38 39.8, 215 Texas - El Paso 35 17.6
88% 88 Wofford 45 34.1, 192 Elon 7 10.3
88% 87 Southern Illinois 45 30.5, 187 Illinois State 17 7.2
88% 44 California - Los Angel 24 37.5, 179 Arizona 21 14.6
88% 28 Boise State 27 39.0, 116 Tulsa 20 16.4
86% 106 Bethune - Cookman 27 37.1, 208 Delaware State 13 18.2
86% 100 Western Kentucky 9 35.9, 198 Southwest Missouri Sta 6 13.9
86% 43 Northern Illinois 40 36.3, 168 Central Michigan 24 16.8
85% 45 West Virginia 34 38.0, 130 Rutgers 19 17.7
85% 30 Alabama 17 28.8, 92 Southern Mississippi 3 11.3
84% 23 North Carolina State 31 41.8, 82 Connecticut 24 25.0
84% 14 Purdue 28 28.6, 61 Penn State 14 12.3
83% 118 Monmouth 24 21.0, 180 Wagner 0 7.3
83% 12 Virginia Tech 51 40.9, 58 Syracuse 7 24.1
82% 94 Georgia Southern 31 34.3, 170 Western Carolina 25 17.4
81% 86 North Texas 24 30.5, 182 Idaho 14 16.5
80% 185 San Jose State 31 26.3, 219 Southern Methodist 14 13.4
80% 33 Texas Tech 52 43.5, 81 Iowa State 21 30.2
79% 152 Alabama State 27 32.5, 194 Jackson State 20 20.2
79% 111 Texas A&M 73 37.1, 174 Baylor 10 22.4
79% 55 Utah 27 25.5, 109 San Diego State 6 13.2
79% 27 Bowling Green 32 36.5, 107 Western Michigan 21 22.0
78% 205 Southern Utah 31 34.4, 225 Southwest Texas State 28 22.1
78% 67 Colgate 30 28.1, 153 Princeton 3 16.2
78% 51 Southern 55 25.4, 104 Alabama A&M 25 12.9
78% 37 Delaware 22 40.1, 117 New Hampshire 21 28.1
78% 34 Boston College 38 32.5, 110 Temple 13 20.2
77% 140 Robert Morris 27 30.2, 202 Central Connecticut 17 19.4
77% 59 Massachusetts 24 37.1, 127 William & Mary 14 26.6
76% 66 Western Illinois 54 21.5, 134 Youngstown State 20 11.9
75% 85 Lafayette 41 28.6, 120 Columbia 27 19.1
73% 128 North Carolina 28 30.0, 191 East Carolina 17 21.6
71% 112 Akron 45 31.9, 133 California Poly 14 24.4
69% 149 Tennessee State 27 32.7, 196 Tennessee Tech 23 25.6
67% 165 Ohio 28 32.4, 178 Central Florida 0 26.1
67% 79 Fordham 24 22.9, 139 Brown 21 16.2
67% 63 Air Force 24 26.0, 72 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 20.5
67% 10 Georgia 41 24.6, 32 Tennessee 14 18.4
65% 161 Middle Tennessee State 35 37.3, 171 New Mexico State 18 32.2
65% 102 Northern Arizona 24 34.7, 150 Sacramento State 21 29.4
65% 56 South Carolina 27 21.7, 62 Kentucky 21 17.2
64% 156 Eastern Washington 42 28.4, 166 Portland State 16 23.5
64% 142 James Madison 34 20.1, 147 Richmond 14 16.0
64% 1 Oklahoma 65 32.0, 4 Texas 13 27.2
63% 148 Towson 30 34.8, 155 Holy Cross 13 31.0
62% 201 Davidson 37 25.6, 217 Jacksonville 29 21.9
62% 188 Eastern Kentucky 41 27.7, 206 Eastern Illinois 0 24.4
60% 125 Northwestern 37 23.7, 163 Indiana 31 21.5
60% 74 Arizona State 59 30.8, 69 Oregon 14 28.6
60% 73 Colorado State 58 23.9, 103 Brigham Young 13 21.7
59% 195 Samford 35 29.0, 193 Murray State 6 26.7
59% 70 Michigan State 49 22.0, 96 Illinois 14 20.2
58% 145 Wyoming 48 31.0, 173 Utah State 21 29.5
55% 126 Stephen F. Austin 35 24.2, 154 Florida International 13 23.2
55% 121 Mississippi State 35 26.6, 113 Memphis State 27 25.3
54% 97 Hawaii 55 32.1, 90 Fresno State 28 31.4
51% 204 Northeast Louisiana 45 25.3, 213 Louisiana - Lafayette 42 25.0
49% 119 North Carolina A&T 28 21.7, 136 Morgan State 21 21.9
49% 40 Clemson 30 24.3, 29 Virginia 27 24.5
41% 175 Georgetown 49 22.4, 146 Stony Brook 21 24.4
39% 99 Colorado 50 35.0, 65 Kansas 47 38.1
39% 54 Wisconsin 17 19.3, 25 Ohio State 10 22.2
37% 18 Michigan 38 28.3, 16 Minnesota 35 32.2
36% 137 Houston 45 32.3, 132 Tulane 42 36.3
36% 57 Georgia Tech 24 16.9, 47 Wake Forest 7 21.3
34% 138 Navy 37 22.0, 122 Vanderbilt 27 27.6
31% 164 Florida Atlantic 31 22.5, 108 Nicholls State 23 29.0
30% 7 Miami - Florida 22 22.3, 2 Florida State 14 29.6
24% 135 Alabama - Birmingham 31 20.7, 60 Cincinnati 14 31.4
24% 31 Oklahoma State 38 20.3, 5 Kansas State 34 31.6
23% 229 Texas Southern 7 17.9, 216 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 6 29.6
23% 211 Howard 16 15.4, 167 Florida A&M 14 26.0
23% 89 Missouri 41 19.3, 21 Nebraska 24 30.1
23% 78 Texas Christian 13 11.5, 52 South Florida 10 20.9
23% 20 Florida 19 16.0, 8 Louisiana State 7 26.8
23% 15 Auburn 10 17.7, 6 Arkansas 3 29.4
22% 84 Notre Dame 20 15.5, 36 Pittsburgh 14 28.1
17% 177 Idaho State 23 17.0, 101 Montana State 17 33.5
16% 159 Nevada - Reno 28 18.0, 76 Washington 17 36.0
12% 231 La Salle 33 19.5, 184 Marist 31 42.5
10% 160 Hofstra 24 19.0, 26 Northeastern 14 41.6
9% 176 Appalachian State 13 13.8, 53 Furman 10 39.6
8% 210 Valparaiso 33 9.4, 48 Dayton 28 50.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 1.36 22 0.98 25 0.83 28 0.99 21 0.99 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 109 83 84.3 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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