prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 152 Alabama State 59 66.7, 240 Prairie View 7 6.1
92% 136 Alabama A&M 41 49.2, 238 Savannah State 0 3.8
92% 122 Stephen F. Austin 34 44.5, 236 Sam Houston State 31 11.2
92% 105 Hampton 52 43.2, 227 Norfolk State 0 13.8
92% 74 Kansas 28 51.7, 207 Baylor 21 20.7
92% 64 South Florida 55 60.3, 237 Charleston Southern 7 3.8
92% 36 Marshall 26 56.3, 221 Buffalo 16 11.6
92% 35 Boise State 45 44.0, 215 Southern Methodist 3 6.3
92% 27 Southern 30 45.2, 189 Jackson State 20 13.1
92% 20 Bowling Green 33 51.2, 208 Eastern Michigan 20 8.8
92% 14 Michigan 56 42.7, 133 Illinois 14 12.6
92% 7 Kansas State 49 47.4, 93 Colorado 20 17.4
92% 6 Georgia 27 46.1, 144 Vanderbilt 8 13.0
92% 2 Miami - Florida 52 49.7, 120 Temple 14 11.2
92% 1 Oklahoma 34 53.7, 69 Missouri 13 11.5
91% 95 Grambling 41 40.6, 220 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 16 9.7
91% 91 Duquesne 39 42.5, 211 Saint Peter's 7 16.2
91% 40 McNeese State 33 47.4, 210 Southern Utah 20 15.4
91% 9 Auburn 45 37.2, 102 Mississippi State 13 8.5
90% 103 Northwestern State 49 42.8, 219 Southwest Texas State 19 18.6
90% 87 Akron 38 44.2, 198 Central Florida 24 19.2
89% 164 California Poly 54 32.8, 222 Saint Mary's 10 8.5
89% 25 Miami - Ohio 49 42.2, 149 Ball State 3 20.5
88% 170 Samford 57 39.0, 234 Tennessee - Martin 22 17.7
88% 3 Southern California 45 34.4, 59 Notre Dame 14 14.0
87% 187 Drake 24 44.8, 232 Butler 7 24.2
87% 119 Morehead State 35 34.9, 197 Davidson 10 15.1
86% 181 Wagner 34 26.8, 233 Siena 6 8.7
86% 180 Stony Brook 49 36.8, 228 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 15.8
86% 60 Louisville 47 40.5, 148 Tulane 28 21.8
86% 16 Texas 40 39.8, 108 Iowa State 19 21.6
85% 68 Connecticut 34 37.1, 186 Kent State 31 18.9
84% 145 Morgan State 33 33.1, 203 Howard 12 16.0
84% 100 North Texas 37 32.7, 183 Utah State 27 16.2
84% 23 Pennsylvania 31 35.5, 123 Columbia 7 17.5
83% 90 Western Kentucky 27 29.9, 192 Illinois State 24 12.0
83% 62 Texas Christian 27 21.8, 114 Alabama - Birmingham 24 8.3
83% 41 Delaware 55 35.5, 110 Rhode Island 10 18.7
83% 19 Washington State 24 35.5, 109 Stanford 14 18.4
82% 44 Pittsburgh 42 38.5, 154 Rutgers 32 22.1
82% 26 Harvard 34 32.2, 81 Lafayette 27 16.8
81% 65 Kentucky 35 35.0, 134 Ohio 14 19.9
81% 51 Northern Illinois 37 33.4, 99 Western Michigan 10 19.2
81% 43 Arizona State 33 36.9, 132 North Carolina 31 22.8
80% 130 Troy State 21 20.6, 176 Florida International 10 8.5
80% 55 Massachusetts 27 31.8, 116 Hofstra 22 17.3
79% 212 East Tennessee State 33 23.3, 226 Liberty 23 11.6
79% 86 Northern Arizona 54 33.4, 141 Eastern Washington 31 21.1
79% 72 Toledo 31 34.5, 163 Central Michigan 13 22.0
78% 115 North Carolina A&T 22 23.9, 167 Florida A&M 16 13.2
78% 79 Bucknell 14 25.6, 137 Towson 10 14.2
78% 37 Nebraska 48 35.1, 78 Texas A&M 12 22.8
78% 8 Louisiana State 33 20.4, 49 South Carolina 7 9.8
77% 67 Wake Forest 42 27.8, 153 Duke 13 17.2
77% 66 Wofford 38 30.4, 150 Western Carolina 6 19.9
76% 11 Purdue 26 32.4, 50 Wisconsin 23 22.9
76% 4 Florida State 19 28.4, 29 Virginia 14 19.0
74% 118 Navy 38 29.2, 182 Rice 6 20.7
73% 63 Hawaii 44 40.4, 139 Louisiana Tech 41 31.8
72% 53 Northeastern 20 25.8, 75 Maine 14 17.9
71% 147 Youngstown State 30 18.1, 188 Indiana State 24 11.7
70% 98 Northern Iowa 26 22.8, 171 Southwest Missouri Sta 20 15.1
70% 97 Bethune - Cookman 31 28.0, 125 South Carolina State 28 20.6
69% 28 North Carolina State 17 33.0, 38 Clemson 15 26.4
68% 117 Wyoming 13 31.9, 138 Brigham Young 10 25.2
67% 194 East Carolina 38 25.9, 218 Army 32 19.6
67% 158 Florida Atlantic 21 23.2, 169 Northern Colorado 19 17.8
66% 15 Oklahoma State 51 42.2, 21 Texas Tech 49 37.6
65% 146 Middle Tennessee State 28 30.2, 184 Idaho 21 24.9
65% 101 James Madison 24 31.7, 156 William & Mary 17 26.5
64% 48 Colorado State 30 28.7, 57 Air Force 20 23.8
63% 131 Montana State 26 17.2, 168 Weber State 3 13.6
63% 30 Mississippi 43 29.0, 34 Alabama 28 24.5
60% 104 Sacred Heart 24 28.4, 140 Robert Morris 20 26.2
60% 47 California - Los Angel 23 30.4, 42 California 20 28.2
59% 45 Utah 28 18.4, 70 Nevada - Las Vegas 10 16.9
55% 177 Portland State 20 30.8, 166 Sacramento State 7 29.8
53% 217 Jacksonville 30 23.9, 223 Austin Peay 0 23.4
50% 88 New Mexico 30 19.2, 112 San Diego State 7 19.2
42% 10 Florida 33 20.6, 18 Arkansas 28 22.4
41% 151 Georgetown 42 21.9, 157 Cornell 20 23.8
40% 127 Memphis State 45 28.7, 135 Houston 14 30.8
38% 58 Colgate 52 21.6, 32 Yale 40 24.9
36% 142 Appalachian State 28 21.6, 92 Georgia Southern 21 26.6
36% 31 Ohio State 19 13.7, 13 Iowa 10 17.6
34% 216 Iona 38 25.6, 191 Marist 21 31.0
33% 129 Nevada - Reno 28 20.7, 113 Tulsa 21 26.8
33% 111 Monmouth 10 16.7, 61 Albany 7 22.4
32% 214 Louisiana - Lafayette 26 24.5, 179 New Mexico State 24 31.1
32% 172 Richmond 35 27.1, 121 New Hampshire 23 33.3
30% 83 Syracuse 39 25.5, 33 Boston College 14 32.9
30% 77 Southern Illinois 37 27.4, 54 Western Illinois 32 36.5
27% 178 Dartmouth 24 29.0, 161 Holy Cross 20 37.1
26% 160 The Citadel 10 17.2, 80 Furman 9 26.0
24% 162 Princeton 34 12.4, 124 Brown 14 20.9
22% 185 Jacksonville State 34 17.8, 143 Tennessee State 7 29.8
22% 175 Idaho State 43 26.5, 84 Montana 40 38.5
20% 231 Texas Southern 23 21.3, 190 Alcorn State 20 34.8
20% 52 Michigan State 44 22.1, 17 Minnesota 38 36.3
19% 229 Eastern Illinois 27 12.4, 199 Murray State 17 27.8
19% 200 Southeast Missouri Sta 41 12.7, 159 Eastern Kentucky 38 27.1
19% 195 Valparaiso 41 28.9, 94 San Diego 34 44.8
18% 225 Tennessee - Chattanoog 24 16.3, 193 Elon 7 31.8
17% 205 Gardner - Webb 37 16.5, 155 Virginia Military 25 33.0
10% 107 Washington 38 13.6, 24 Oregon State 17 36.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.17 19 0.80 26 0.91 32 0.96 19 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 105 79 81.9 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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