prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 164 Florida A&M 60 38.4, 234 Norfolk State 10 7.6
92% 130 Stephen F. Austin 44 46.6, 226 Southwest Texas State 27 17.6
92% 100 Monmouth 50 38.1, 222 La Salle 0 7.3
92% 89 Cincinnati 33 47.8, 221 Army 29 14.4
92% 85 Dayton 40 46.7, 235 Butler 0 6.2
92% 83 Furman 30 34.1, 220 East Tennessee State 10 2.9
92% 72 Hawaii 31 54.7, 212 Texas - El Paso 15 22.2
92% 47 Louisville 36 40.7, 199 East Carolina 20 12.7
92% 44 McNeese State 56 62.0, 230 Sam Houston State 37 8.1
92% 28 Boise State 77 45.1, 170 San Jose State 14 14.3
92% 14 Miami - Ohio 38 47.8, 177 Kent State 30 14.5
92% 12 Texas 56 53.2, 196 Baylor 0 13.3
92% 6 Georgia 16 43.3, 117 Alabama - Birmingham 13 7.0
92% 1 Oklahoma 34 52.0, 74 Colorado 20 19.7
91% 39 California 42 41.9, 166 Arizona 14 15.4
91% 26 Ohio State 35 35.3, 162 Indiana 6 9.3
91% 5 Florida State 48 34.9, 62 Wake Forest 24 9.3
90% 27 Virginia 24 30.6, 119 Troy State 0 7.0
90% 4 Kansas State 42 48.5, 87 Kansas 6 19.5
89% 223 Saint Mary's 33 46.5, 239 Southeast Louisiana 27 22.9
89% 136 Towson 24 32.5, 213 Elon 7 10.9
89% 29 Clemson 36 39.0, 129 North Carolina 28 16.4
89% 15 Iowa 26 28.2, 81 Penn State 14 6.9
89% 3 Southern California 43 43.2, 75 Washington 23 20.7
88% 118 North Carolina A&T 27 30.7, 202 Howard 7 9.6
88% 106 Fresno State 31 34.2, 197 Rice 28 13.1
88% 31 Harvard 43 36.3, 126 Princeton 40 15.0
87% 79 Albany 40 40.1, 167 Stony Brook 7 20.3
87% 34 North Carolina State 28 38.2, 158 Duke 21 18.9
86% 155 Tulsa 35 28.2, 218 Southern Methodist 16 8.9
86% 71 Southern Illinois 20 34.0, 163 Southwest Missouri Sta 6 14.5
86% 23 Minnesota 36 44.2, 141 Illinois 10 25.2
84% 108 Morehead State 20 28.8, 203 Jacksonville 16 11.0
83% 228 Coastal Carolina 29 23.6, 238 Savannah State 19 8.7
83% 46 Wofford 24 30.2, 115 Appalachian State 14 15.1
83% 32 Nebraska 28 33.5, 94 Iowa State 0 17.5
83% 21 Delaware 21 32.4, 107 Navy 17 16.7
82% 219 Eastern Illinois 29 34.4, 236 Tennessee - Martin 12 14.9
82% 147 San Diego 47 44.7, 205 Marist 0 30.0
82% 102 Montana 42 32.1, 174 Portland State 14 16.5
82% 91 Grambling 24 35.8, 188 Jackson State 17 20.5
82% 56 South Carolina 35 30.0, 123 Vanderbilt 24 15.1
81% 13 Pennsylvania 34 37.3, 60 Yale 31 19.7
80% 143 Jacksonville State 37 31.2, 193 Tennessee Tech 20 17.7
80% 63 Kentucky 42 35.0, 120 Mississippi State 17 21.3
79% 20 Oklahoma State 38 39.5, 93 Texas A&M 10 27.5
78% 183 Utah State 49 33.6, 214 Arkansas State 0 20.7
78% 78 Hampton 32 29.6, 135 South Carolina State 12 17.1
78% 70 Oregon 35 35.0, 116 Stanford 0 22.8
78% 59 Maine 20 23.6, 104 James Madison 13 13.0
78% 42 Colgate 50 27.7, 96 Bucknell 6 15.7
77% 142 Morgan State 53 29.5, 204 Delaware State 36 19.2
77% 101 Western Kentucky 59 27.5, 184 Indiana State 14 16.7
77% 73 Texas Christian 62 27.9, 153 Houston 55 17.3
77% 17 Washington State 36 30.2, 38 Oregon State 30 18.7
74% 217 Saint Peter's 20 22.1, 233 Siena 16 14.4
74% 84 North Texas 33 32.6, 145 Middle Tennessee State 28 23.9
74% 67 Lehigh 45 31.8, 131 Georgetown 24 22.7
74% 8 Louisiana State 31 20.6, 16 Auburn 7 13.0
73% 9 Michigan 31 32.3, 19 Purdue 3 23.8
72% 25 Bowling Green 34 31.2, 40 Northern Illinois 18 22.8
70% 50 Boston College 27 23.0, 64 Notre Dame 25 16.3
69% 54 Marshall 41 36.2, 105 Western Michigan 21 29.8
67% 209 Central Connecticut 35 25.6, 227 Saint Francis - Pennsy 28 19.8
67% 51 Pittsburgh 34 31.8, 61 Syracuse 14 26.1
66% 151 Robert Morris 31 21.2, 165 Wagner 28 16.4
65% 95 Memphis State 41 36.0, 144 Tulane 9 31.3
64% 176 Valparaiso 51 39.2, 186 Drake 45 34.8
64% 161 Richmond 35 24.9, 169 Virginia Military 25 19.8
62% 181 Florida International 34 27.5, 179 Holy Cross 23 24.2
60% 53 California - Los Angel 20 25.8, 45 Arizona State 13 23.4
59% 189 New Mexico State 21 33.1, 206 Northeast Louisiana 14 31.2
59% 160 Brown 21 20.1, 190 Cornell 7 18.3
59% 86 Connecticut 38 35.0, 76 Akron 37 33.2
55% 103 Montana State 21 18.8, 90 Northern Arizona 17 17.9
55% 30 Mississippi 19 29.1, 24 Arkansas 7 28.2
51% 124 Alabama A&M 20 27.5, 125 Alabama State 17 27.4
48% 194 Central Florida 31 25.4, 175 Central Michigan 13 25.9
44% 66 Fordham 32 27.0, 77 Lafayette 30 28.2
43% 224 Texas Southern 30 18.5, 229 Mississippi Valley Sta 17 19.7
42% 88 Southern Mississippi 27 16.8, 55 South Florida 6 18.1
41% 171 Tennessee State 29 28.7, 178 Samford 24 30.6
41% 149 Dartmouth 26 24.9, 121 Columbia 21 26.8
40% 137 San Diego State 25 24.3, 111 Wyoming 20 26.4
39% 132 Rutgers 30 33.5, 134 Temple 14 36.3
38% 159 Eastern Washington 38 31.7, 157 Sacramento State 21 34.9
38% 36 Tennessee 51 20.5, 35 Alabama 43 24.0
37% 114 Nicholls State 40 31.0, 112 Northwestern State 30 35.1
36% 201 Murray State 27 17.6, 198 Southeast Missouri Sta 24 22.1
36% 133 Louisiana Tech 42 25.0, 122 Nevada - Reno 34 29.5
35% 192 Weber State 38 23.3, 148 Idaho State 21 28.8
34% 215 Louisiana - Lafayette 31 18.7, 185 Idaho 20 23.8
33% 156 William & Mary 37 30.7, 140 Rhode Island 24 36.5
32% 210 Tennessee - Chattanoog 38 19.5, 172 Western Carolina 0 26.2
31% 127 New Hampshire 38 30.7, 110 Hofstra 17 37.0
27% 82 Missouri 62 37.0, 22 Texas Tech 31 44.2
26% 139 The Citadel 28 19.8, 109 Georgia Southern 24 28.8
25% 187 Illinois State 35 13.6, 154 Youngstown State 25 21.9
23% 146 Brigham Young 27 11.8, 98 Nevada - Las Vegas 20 22.2
23% 97 Northern Iowa 38 21.3, 58 Western Illinois 30 32.6
22% 128 Northwestern 16 19.3, 52 Wisconsin 7 30.5
21% 216 Buffalo 26 15.8, 152 Ohio 17 28.4
21% 191 Iona 38 21.8, 113 Sacred Heart 31 34.5
21% 80 New Mexico 47 11.7, 33 Utah 35 23.1
20% 57 Georgia Tech 7 12.8, 11 Maryland 3 25.5
20% 48 West Virginia 28 18.8, 7 Virginia Tech 7 32.4
19% 232 Austin Peay 31 17.0, 211 Davidson 21 31.3
17% 65 Massachusetts 19 15.0, 18 Villanova 14 31.4
16% 182 Ball State 38 18.0, 68 Toledo 14 34.5
8% 195 Alcorn State 36 15.8, 43 Southern 34 47.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.81 20 0.70 30 0.83 28 1.05 19 1.03 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110 77 84.6 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net