prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 172 Alcorn State 27 57.1, 238 Southeast Louisiana 24 17.8
92% 132 Morgan State 45 53.3, 239 Savannah State 14 7.3
92% 98 Nicholls State 37 56.1, 226 Sam Houston State 12 20.9
92% 95 Toledo 56 38.4, 213 Buffalo 29 8.6
92% 93 Alabama - Birmingham 24 43.3, 220 Army 9 11.0
92% 90 San Diego 53 55.0, 236 Butler 7 5.3
92% 65 Southern Mississippi 48 37.1, 208 Louisiana - Lafayette 3 3.9
92% 58 McNeese State 38 55.0, 223 Southwest Texas State 28 20.6
92% 35 Oregon State 52 39.4, 165 Arizona 23 9.9
92% 28 West Virginia 36 42.1, 183 Central Florida 18 7.5
92% 18 Minnesota 55 51.0, 178 Indiana 7 16.3
92% 17 Iowa 41 41.6, 148 Illinois 10 9.0
92% 16 Auburn 73 51.4, 210 Northeast Louisiana 7 3.8
92% 13 Pennsylvania 24 37.7, 152 Brown 21 9.2
92% 6 Louisiana State 49 45.4, 121 Louisiana Tech 10 10.1
92% 3 Kansas State 38 66.4, 205 Baylor 10 2.7
91% 104 Grambling 48 42.3, 218 Texas Southern 15 15.8
91% 67 Memphis State 41 40.1, 191 East Carolina 24 13.2
91% 19 Maryland 59 41.8, 133 North Carolina 21 14.7
90% 196 Southeast Missouri Sta 20 38.8, 237 Tennessee - Martin 7 14.6
90% 34 Tennessee 23 39.8, 160 Duke 6 13.7
89% 107 Fresno State 20 33.6, 221 Southern Methodist 11 10.5
89% 26 Villanova 42 34.7, 145 Richmond 13 12.9
89% 24 Purdue 34 35.5, 116 Northwestern 14 12.6
89% 12 Boise State 50 38.0, 126 Brigham Young 12 16.0
87% 173 Iona 26 40.6, 233 La Salle 20 19.1
87% 114 Georgia Southern 34 32.9, 217 East Tennessee State 22 12.3
87% 1 Oklahoma 52 40.2, 14 Oklahoma State 9 19.7
86% 232 Mississippi Valley Sta 40 34.2, 240 Prairie View 3 15.3
86% 63 Dayton 31 42.1, 195 Drake 15 21.3
86% 5 Florida State 37 29.9, 61 Notre Dame 0 11.7
85% 200 Howard 42 31.9, 235 Norfolk State 28 14.7
85% 50 Northern Illinois 48 34.0, 138 Ball State 23 15.5
84% 87 Hawaii 13 46.6, 197 San Jose State 10 29.6
84% 74 Western Illinois 24 36.1, 185 Illinois State 20 19.6
82% 151 South Carolina State 36 32.6, 202 Delaware State 13 17.5
82% 150 California Poly 33 31.4, 203 Southern Utah 21 16.0
82% 123 Appalachian State 47 27.0, 190 Tennessee - Chattanoog 7 11.6
82% 88 Northern Iowa 47 31.0, 161 Youngstown State 9 15.7
80% 186 Virginia Military 19 34.2, 228 Coastal Carolina 10 18.9
80% 124 Princeton 28 27.0, 187 Cornell 6 14.2
80% 78 Albany 28 29.6, 168 Wagner 7 16.3
80% 75 Fordham 34 38.6, 141 Georgetown 10 23.7
79% 113 Montana State 56 28.0, 175 Sacramento State 7 15.4
79% 100 Navy 35 34.1, 162 Tulane 17 20.8
79% 70 Lehigh 35 28.3, 120 Towson 3 16.1
79% 49 Yale 29 38.3, 143 Columbia 14 25.6
78% 167 Tennessee State 24 30.4, 207 Eastern Illinois 14 17.4
78% 158 Tulsa 56 31.9, 214 Texas - El Paso 28 20.8
78% 122 Bucknell 53 30.6, 170 Holy Cross 31 18.8
78% 101 James Madison 39 29.9, 153 Rhode Island 27 18.6
77% 182 Central Michigan 38 30.6, 206 Eastern Michigan 10 19.5
77% 164 Florida International 55 26.8, 201 Jacksonville 12 15.4
77% 163 Southwest Missouri Sta 45 21.7, 194 Indiana State 10 12.2
77% 27 Delaware 24 26.1, 66 Maine 21 15.4
77% 8 Texas 31 30.6, 20 Nebraska 7 20.0
77% 4 Southern California 43 37.5, 11 Washington State 16 26.7
76% 154 Florida Atlantic 31 27.3, 188 Gardner - Webb 26 17.3
76% 44 Marshall 42 43.7, 86 Akron 24 33.9
76% 25 Colgate 47 32.4, 85 Lafayette 31 22.3
75% 99 North Texas 21 19.6, 127 Troy State 0 11.8
75% 29 Mississippi 43 27.0, 54 South Carolina 40 17.7
75% 7 Michigan 27 28.8, 36 Michigan State 20 19.7
73% 89 Connecticut 41 33.1, 115 Western Michigan 27 24.7
73% 52 Texas Tech 26 48.5, 77 Colorado 21 41.6
72% 23 Ohio State 21 18.0, 64 Penn State 20 11.4
70% 83 South Florida 24 26.7, 96 Cincinnati 17 19.6
69% 159 Eastern Kentucky 38 27.5, 198 Murray State 20 20.8
69% 71 Wofford 42 25.5, 130 The Citadel 16 18.9
67% 212 California - Davis 45 26.4, 227 Saint Mary's 14 20.0
66% 118 William & Mary 23 30.8, 137 Hofstra 9 25.1
63% 176 Samford 42 34.8, 199 Tennessee Tech 24 31.2
63% 31 Arkansas 71 25.6, 68 Kentucky 63 21.4
62% 209 Western Carolina 26 23.8, 211 Elon 3 20.1
62% 166 Idaho State 30 29.9, 169 Portland State 20 26.7
62% 41 Massachusetts 28 24.4, 46 Northeastern 24 20.8
61% 146 Utah State 41 33.1, 144 Middle Tennessee State 20 30.2
61% 32 North Carolina State 51 29.3, 30 Virginia 37 26.6
55% 231 Liberty 17 29.1, 234 Charleston Southern 6 28.1
55% 79 Montana 59 28.2, 97 Northern Arizona 21 27.1
55% 53 Wake Forest 45 26.2, 42 Clemson 17 25.3
53% 103 Texas A&M 45 34.7, 92 Kansas 33 34.1
51% 82 Washington 42 29.8, 62 Oregon 10 29.7
49% 10 Florida 16 18.8, 9 Georgia 13 19.0
43% 55 Utah 45 26.8, 69 Air Force 43 28.2
42% 108 Morehead State 15 23.1, 91 Duquesne 10 24.5
42% 72 Southern Illinois 28 26.8, 80 Western Kentucky 24 28.6
41% 38 California 51 27.7, 48 Arizona State 23 29.6
39% 39 Pittsburgh 24 23.8, 47 Boston College 13 26.7
36% 110 North Carolina A&T 13 18.6, 102 Bethune - Cookman 7 23.3
29% 193 Rice 52 21.0, 140 Nevada - Reno 42 28.5
26% 15 Virginia Tech 31 23.3, 2 Miami - Florida 7 33.1
25% 171 Stony Brook 47 24.9, 139 Sacred Heart 16 34.3
24% 105 Wyoming 35 22.9, 40 Colorado State 28 33.1
22% 136 Stanford 21 15.3, 51 California - Los Angel 14 26.6
22% 109 Nevada - Las Vegas 37 14.9, 59 New Mexico 35 27.2
19% 155 Florida A&M 34 15.7, 81 Hampton 23 30.2
17% 222 Arkansas State 28 16.9, 180 New Mexico State 24 35.3
13% 225 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 16 11.6, 189 Jackson State 14 30.2
11% 204 Central Connecticut 14 6.7, 84 Monmouth 10 27.2
10% 149 Dartmouth 30 17.6, 33 Harvard 16 41.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.91 14 1.33 30 1.05 27 0.96 20 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 101 83 78.9 1.05
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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