prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 221 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 43 45.3, 240 Prairie View 7 6.6
92% 180 Gardner - Webb 46 44.5, 238 Charleston Southern 0 10.9
92% 155 Eastern Kentucky 41 47.6, 235 Tennessee - Martin 32 10.2
92% 51 Northern Illinois 40 41.0, 206 Buffalo 9 10.6
92% 45 Wofford 28 42.6, 209 East Tennessee State 14 4.7
92% 44 Air Force 31 53.1, 222 Army 3 13.0
92% 7 Florida 35 45.6, 125 Vanderbilt 17 9.8
92% 1 Oklahoma 77 56.6, 93 Texas A&M 0 11.9
91% 5 Kansas State 45 41.3, 107 Iowa State 0 14.6
90% 176 Wagner 21 35.0, 230 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 10.7
90% 136 Louisiana Tech 41 36.7, 220 Southern Methodist 6 13.5
90% 106 Nicholls State 31 48.1, 218 Southwest Texas State 13 21.7
90% 103 North Carolina A&T 33 33.5, 202 Delaware State 7 8.7
90% 69 South Florida 38 37.0, 197 East Carolina 37 13.7
90% 61 Fordham 49 45.6, 175 Holy Cross 28 21.9
89% 100 Duquesne 31 39.2, 214 Marist 6 17.8
89% 82 North Texas 28 39.5, 210 Northeast Louisiana 26 16.2
89% 81 Southern Illinois 24 36.2, 184 Youngstown State 17 14.1
89% 53 Texas Tech 62 46.7, 196 Baylor 14 23.2
89% 39 Massachusetts 30 35.9, 148 Richmond 17 14.1
88% 192 Drake 20 43.6, 232 Saint Mary's 13 22.5
88% 179 Virginia Military 48 37.1, 228 Austin Peay 7 15.5
88% 89 Western Illinois 34 38.3, 204 Indiana State 28 17.8
88% 57 Montana 26 44.3, 198 Sacramento State 0 21.2
87% 18 Pennsylvania 37 33.2, 98 Princeton 7 13.5
86% 117 Appalachian State 34 32.7, 212 Elon 12 14.4
85% 71 Syracuse 41 37.7, 147 Temple 17 20.1
84% 122 Dartmouth 26 31.0, 199 Cornell 17 13.3
84% 15 Minnesota 37 38.1, 64 Wisconsin 34 21.5
83% 78 Albany 27 31.8, 151 Robert Morris 7 15.9
82% 191 Alcorn State 23 30.3, 227 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 14.0
82% 99 Cincinnati 31 39.5, 164 Rhode Island 24 24.5
82% 33 Alabama 38 35.9, 129 Mississippi State 0 20.6
80% 134 Alabama A&M 49 26.2, 188 Jackson State 14 13.6
79% 154 Stony Brook 36 31.6, 193 Central Connecticut 31 18.7
78% 79 McNeese State 20 39.2, 124 Stephen F. Austin 17 27.3
78% 59 Southern Mississippi 31 32.1, 150 Houston 10 20.0
78% 24 Nebraska 24 32.8, 95 Kansas 3 21.0
78% 19 Colgate 17 34.6, 48 Lehigh 10 22.4
78% 17 Washington State 31 29.2, 43 California - Los Angel 13 17.4
77% 94 Akron 40 38.0, 170 Central Michigan 28 27.9
77% 77 Connecticut 38 38.7, 111 Rutgers 31 28.4
76% 135 South Carolina State 24 28.7, 200 Howard 14 19.1
76% 120 Northern Arizona 46 37.7, 162 Idaho State 31 28.2
75% 229 Liberty 69 30.8, 234 Norfolk State 21 21.6
75% 63 Maine 77 32.4, 131 Morgan State 24 22.1
75% 23 Ohio State 33 22.8, 42 Michigan State 23 14.8
71% 167 Northern Colorado 29 30.1, 208 Southern Utah 25 22.7
71% 27 Arkansas 28 30.3, 56 South Carolina 6 22.1
70% 186 San Jose State 69 31.1, 217 Texas - El Paso 41 23.7
70% 149 California Poly 18 26.4, 194 California - Davis 14 19.5
68% 102 Monmouth 12 18.8, 157 Sacred Heart 7 13.4
67% 182 Iona 23 26.7, 213 Saint Peter's 7 20.7
67% 128 Western Michigan 28 33.0, 146 Ball State 20 27.0
67% 97 Lafayette 35 29.4, 113 Bucknell 17 23.0
64% 21 Miami - Ohio 33 34.5, 26 Bowling Green 10 30.2
63% 123 Jacksonville State 49 30.5, 165 Samford 32 26.2
63% 83 Notre Dame 27 20.6, 86 Navy 24 16.4
63% 9 Texas 55 32.0, 20 Oklahoma State 16 27.7
62% 144 Tulsa 31 32.3, 181 Rice 28 28.5
62% 62 Texas Christian 31 25.8, 66 Louisville 28 22.1
61% 121 Fresno State 27 30.9, 161 Nevada - Reno 10 27.7
58% 110 Grambling 37 33.0, 132 Alabama State 34 31.5
55% 211 Eastern Illinois 37 25.9, 203 Tennessee Tech 10 24.9
54% 87 Western Kentucky 24 25.4, 75 Northern Iowa 3 24.6
53% 73 New Mexico 37 27.2, 52 Colorado State 34 26.7
53% 65 Colorado 21 31.3, 49 Missouri 16 30.7
52% 28 Purdue 27 20.4, 16 Iowa 14 20.1
51% 130 Towson 27 20.3, 156 Georgetown 6 20.2
47% 114 Bethune - Cookman 30 21.5, 96 Hampton 27 22.1
46% 166 Middle Tennessee State 27 18.9, 142 Troy State 20 19.5
46% 37 West Virginia 35 22.3, 50 Boston College 28 23.1
41% 116 Georgia Southern 29 20.6, 88 Furman 24 22.6
40% 115 New Hampshire 20 30.6, 90 James Madison 17 32.6
39% 171 Weber State 45 17.1, 177 Portland State 21 19.5
39% 105 Northwestern 17 17.9, 72 Penn State 7 20.7
39% 54 Northeastern 24 22.5, 31 Delaware 14 25.1
37% 215 Arkansas State 24 19.9, 189 Idaho 23 24.1
37% 174 Kent State 37 25.0, 168 Ohio 33 29.0
36% 195 Southeast Missouri Sta 52 20.6, 163 Tennessee State 35 25.2
36% 178 Indiana 17 21.9, 133 Illinois 14 26.6
34% 207 Eastern Michigan 19 22.1, 183 Central Florida 13 27.4
34% 80 San Diego 41 22.6, 68 Dayton 30 28.2
33% 233 La Salle 34 18.0, 231 Siena 7 23.2
33% 127 San Diego State 7 16.1, 104 Nevada - Las Vegas 0 21.6
33% 118 Stanford 38 19.7, 67 Arizona State 27 25.5
29% 187 New Mexico State 26 23.7, 137 Utah State 21 31.0
27% 226 Coastal Carolina 52 19.8, 219 Davidson 27 28.3
27% 32 Pittsburgh 31 19.5, 8 Virginia Tech 28 27.9
24% 205 Tennessee - Chattanoog 29 19.2, 159 The Citadel 20 28.6
24% 140 Eastern Washington 34 17.9, 84 Montana State 25 27.6
24% 30 Mississippi 24 20.6, 11 Auburn 20 31.0
23% 169 Illinois State 48 14.3, 126 Southwest Missouri Sta 43 24.1
23% 152 Columbia 16 21.5, 76 Harvard 13 32.3
23% 92 Oregon 21 24.7, 25 California 17 35.7
22% 237 Southeast Louisiana 43 24.6, 223 Jacksonville 23 38.1
20% 216 Louisiana - Lafayette 43 16.8, 145 Florida International 10 30.9
18% 172 Tulane 38 19.9, 109 Alabama - Birmingham 24 35.4
18% 138 North Carolina 42 27.4, 38 Wake Forest 34 42.2
17% 160 Duke 41 9.5, 47 Georgia Tech 17 25.2
15% 173 Arizona 27 19.5, 60 Washington 22 36.8
13% 36 Tennessee 10 16.2, 4 Miami - Florida 6 36.8
12% 141 Brown 55 16.5, 40 Yale 44 37.0
12% 70 Clemson 26 12.9, 3 Florida State 10 35.4
10% 225 Sam Houston State 29 19.5, 112 Northwestern State 24 42.8
10% 153 Hofstra 34 12.3, 22 Villanova 32 36.4
9% 236 Butler 25 13.7, 185 Valparaiso 21 39.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 1.07 25 0.80 26 0.81 29 0.80 15 0.95 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 69 81.1 0.85
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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