prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 158 Morgan State 43 56.4, 237 Norfolk State 34 18.5
92% 141 Weber State 35 37.4, 234 Saint Mary's 15 8.0
92% 129 Hampton 48 53.3, 239 Savannah State 13 4.8
92% 89 Hawaii 59 43.8, 217 Army 28 14.0
92% 30 Oklahoma State 38 46.2, 201 Baylor 21 11.8
92% 28 Colgate 45 45.1, 191 Holy Cross 38 16.9
92% 22 Purdue 24 42.4, 187 Indiana 16 10.3
92% 19 Arkansas 52 54.1, 177 Mississippi State 6 17.1
92% 15 Pennsylvania 59 49.2, 195 Cornell 7 3.9
92% 13 Miami - Ohio 49 48.0, 183 Ohio 31 12.7
92% 11 Miami - Florida 34 44.2, 128 Rutgers 10 12.5
92% 3 Southern California 47 41.2, 70 California - Los Angel 22 10.6
91% 90 Furman 63 37.8, 221 Tennessee - Chattanoog 21 9.0
91% 16 Tennessee 48 42.1, 118 Vanderbilt 0 15.5
91% 2 Kansas State 24 41.2, 47 Missouri 14 14.3
91% 1 Oklahoma 56 52.3, 41 Texas Tech 25 25.7
90% 75 Northern Illinois 38 40.0, 192 Eastern Michigan 24 15.0
90% 7 Georgia 30 38.8, 83 Kentucky 10 13.4
89% 136 Troy State 28 33.2, 214 Northeast Louisiana 24 10.6
89% 130 Alabama A&M 50 29.1, 212 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 0 6.8
89% 35 Bowling Green 41 41.8, 173 Ball State 14 19.4
87% 144 Eastern Kentucky 27 41.4, 216 Tennessee Tech 14 21.9
87% 50 Massachusetts 31 39.7, 135 Rhode Island 17 20.3
86% 179 Rice 45 45.3, 224 Texas - El Paso 14 26.9
86% 10 Boise State 31 39.4, 98 Fresno State 17 20.5
85% 93 Navy 63 34.0, 182 Central Michigan 34 16.3
85% 36 Utah 3 35.6, 146 Brigham Young 0 18.2
85% 20 California 28 37.1, 121 Stanford 16 18.3
84% 64 Marshall 21 37.3, 181 Central Florida 7 20.7
82% 142 Tulane 28 39.5, 199 East Carolina 18 24.8
81% 162 Kent State 34 33.7, 207 Buffalo 24 19.0
80% 96 Kansas 36 34.8, 159 Iowa State 7 20.0
80% 54 Memphis State 21 33.8, 105 Cincinnati 16 19.9
80% 49 Pittsburgh 30 34.5, 138 Temple 16 20.5
79% 151 Idaho State 36 40.0, 198 Southern Utah 17 27.3
79% 92 Louisville 66 36.4, 149 Houston 45 23.1
78% 148 Alabama State 38 37.2, 210 Texas Southern 26 25.7
78% 34 Northeastern 41 27.9, 108 James Madison 24 16.2
77% 223 Coastal Carolina 48 29.9, 238 Charleston Southern 14 17.9
77% 72 Toledo 34 38.2, 111 Western Michigan 17 27.4
77% 39 Virginia 29 26.5, 78 Georgia Tech 17 15.9
77% 21 Auburn 28 22.5, 44 Alabama 23 13.0
76% 37 Lehigh 30 31.5, 69 Lafayette 10 21.0
76% 8 Michigan 35 25.5, 23 Ohio State 21 16.0
75% 125 Tulsa 34 35.1, 190 San Jose State 32 25.8
74% 168 Middle Tennessee State 24 35.9, 211 Arkansas State 14 27.0
73% 4 Louisiana State 17 27.5, 26 Mississippi 14 19.5
72% 109 Florida Atlantic 32 27.0, 180 Florida International 23 19.0
72% 100 Bethune - Cookman 39 24.4, 155 Florida A&M 35 17.0
71% 45 Fordham 35 24.4, 99 Towson 22 17.1
70% 62 McNeese State 63 31.5, 117 Nicholls State 28 24.1
70% 61 New Mexico 26 33.1, 120 Wyoming 3 26.0
69% 119 William & Mary 59 28.0, 174 Richmond 21 21.4
69% 53 Colorado State 24 25.8, 104 Nevada - Las Vegas 23 19.2
68% 123 Jacksonville State 22 27.9, 178 Southeast Missouri Sta 17 21.6
67% 170 Northern Colorado 35 25.9, 206 California - Davis 28 20.3
67% 134 Bucknell 45 25.4, 150 Georgetown 16 19.5
65% 18 Iowa 27 25.4, 42 Wisconsin 21 20.7
64% 175 Tennessee State 35 29.6, 203 Murray State 10 24.7
62% 176 Samford 17 30.6, 200 Eastern Illinois 14 26.9
61% 33 West Virginia 34 27.2, 55 Syracuse 23 24.6
60% 14 Maryland 26 30.9, 25 North Carolina State 24 28.5
59% 219 Southwest Texas State 49 33.2, 213 Sam Houston State 28 31.2
56% 172 East Tennessee State 16 22.2, 160 The Citadel 13 21.1
53% 167 Idaho 20 25.2, 156 Utah State 13 24.6
52% 113 Northwestern 37 21.7, 137 Illinois 20 21.4
48% 202 Howard 21 22.4, 209 Delaware State 6 22.8
48% 66 Southern Mississippi 40 18.5, 43 Texas Christian 28 18.8
47% 184 Alcorn State 49 22.5, 193 Jackson State 25 23.1
47% 82 Michigan State 41 23.2, 63 Penn State 10 23.9
47% 31 Delaware 20 26.2, 40 Villanova 17 26.8
46% 51 Clemson 63 20.8, 60 South Carolina 17 21.5
45% 106 Brown 42 22.5, 122 Columbia 10 23.5
40% 107 Stephen F. Austin 44 22.0, 115 Northwestern State 14 24.4
39% 186 Western Carolina 39 22.2, 157 Gardner - Webb 16 25.0
39% 132 Dartmouth 21 21.7, 97 Princeton 15 24.7
39% 56 Oregon 34 24.2, 32 Oregon State 20 27.2
37% 71 Harvard 37 31.9, 68 Yale 19 35.4
32% 143 Duke 30 27.4, 124 North Carolina 22 33.8
31% 112 San Diego State 24 17.0, 58 Air Force 3 23.5
29% 133 South Carolina State 49 17.1, 81 North Carolina A&T 9 24.1
25% 116 Alabama - Birmingham 22 17.8, 84 South Florida 19 27.1
24% 102 Montana State 27 15.7, 38 Montana 20 25.0
17% 222 Liberty 49 19.0, 139 Hofstra 42 35.7
17% 59 Boston College 34 20.0, 17 Virginia Tech 27 36.5
16% 127 New Hampshire 47 22.0, 27 Maine 27 38.4
15% 95 Washington 27 20.2, 9 Washington State 19 38.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.68 18 0.94 21 1.14 20 0.94 17 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 87 66 66.0 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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