prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 99 Fresno State 23 45.0, 226 Texas - El Paso 20 17.5
92% 57 Texas Christian 20 43.5, 223 Southern Methodist 13 6.4
92% 17 Boise State 56 44.8, 146 Nevada - Reno 3 14.2
92% 16 Miami - Ohio 56 45.0, 181 Central Florida 21 12.3
91% 62 Southern Mississippi 38 37.6, 198 East Carolina 21 12.3
91% 6 Texas 46 46.2, 123 Texas A&M 15 20.1
90% 61 Marshall 28 42.1, 185 Ohio 0 17.3
90% 44 Missouri 45 38.8, 151 Iowa State 7 15.1
89% 35 West Virginia 45 39.3, 135 Temple 28 16.8
89% 32 Mississippi 31 43.7, 169 Mississippi State 0 21.7
87% 64 Arizona State 28 36.4, 155 Arizona 7 16.2
87% 5 Georgia 34 28.5, 71 Georgia Tech 17 9.3
85% 56 Wofford 31 28.4, 137 North Carolina A&T 10 10.2
84% 76 North Texas 13 34.4, 189 New Mexico State 10 18.4
83% 22 Bowling Green 31 38.7, 70 Toledo 23 23.0
83% 14 Tennessee 20 35.1, 92 Kentucky 7 19.8
81% 63 Western Kentucky 45 32.0, 127 Jacksonville State 7 16.7
81% 12 Maryland 41 32.8, 81 Wake Forest 28 18.8
80% 27 Delaware 48 33.6, 72 Southern Illinois 7 19.0
76% 67 Southern 44 35.0, 121 Grambling 41 25.2
75% 4 Louisiana State 55 26.7, 13 Arkansas 24 17.5
74% 10 Miami - Florida 28 26.7, 47 Pittsburgh 14 18.2
72% 33 Colgate 19 29.3, 54 Massachusetts 7 21.3
66% 77 Notre Dame 57 21.2, 126 Stanford 7 16.5
65% 86 Northern Iowa 35 22.1, 101 Montana State 14 17.5
62% 28 Nebraska 31 22.9, 53 Colorado 22 19.6
56% 109 Nevada - Las Vegas 35 23.4, 133 Wyoming 24 22.2
51% 87 Louisville 43 28.3, 107 Cincinnati 40 28.0
45% 7 Florida State 38 22.0, 9 Florida 34 22.9
40% 36 Virginia 35 25.3, 19 Virginia Tech 21 27.7
39% 149 Houston 56 27.7, 112 Alabama - Birmingham 28 30.8
36% 115 Florida Atlantic 32 22.2, 102 Bethune - Cookman 24 27.2
33% 120 Rutgers 24 27.0, 69 Syracuse 7 33.1
29% 91 Hawaii 37 25.2, 34 Alabama 29 33.8
27% 164 Rice 49 28.5, 139 Louisiana Tech 14 36.3
25% 74 Western Illinois 43 28.4, 48 Montana 40 37.1
23% 100 South Florida 21 18.4, 59 Memphis State 16 29.0
16% 116 Northern Arizona 35 21.5, 43 McNeese State 3 39.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.23 7 0.67 9 0.74 12 1.08 7 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 38 28 29.4 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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