prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 60 Navy 34 46.9, 215 Army 6 13.8
90% 2 Southern California 52 42.4, 39 Oregon State 28 18.2
84% 18 Delaware 37 35.3, 67 Northern Iowa 7 18.0
79% 13 Boise State 45 40.7, 69 Hawaii 28 28.3
77% 35 Colgate 28 36.4, 66 Western Illinois 27 25.9
65% 42 Wofford 34 22.9, 52 Western Kentucky 17 18.1
61% 5 Louisiana State 34 19.4, 7 Georgia 13 17.1
58% 19 Miami - Ohio 49 32.1, 34 Bowling Green 27 30.7
40% 84 Syracuse 38 20.5, 55 Notre Dame 12 22.6
26% 118 Florida Atlantic 48 20.6, 85 Northern Arizona 25 29.8
26% 3 Kansas State 35 21.9, 1 Oklahoma 7 30.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.85 2 1.59 4 0.66 1 1.19 2 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 11 8 8.1 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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