prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 14 Miami - Ohio 49 42.2, 90 Louisville 28 24.3
83% 13 Boise State 34 34.8, 70 Texas Christian 31 18.9
82% 34 Bowling Green 28 34.0, 107 Northwestern 24 19.3
79% 28 North Carolina State 56 42.1, 85 Kansas 26 29.7
77% 78 Hawaii 54 44.7, 135 Houston 48 35.5
76% 25 Minnesota 31 37.6, 59 Oregon 30 28.2
76% 2 Southern California 28 37.8, 7 Michigan 14 28.0
75% 68 Georgia Tech 52 28.7, 123 Tulsa 10 18.9
75% 27 Nebraska 17 27.6, 60 Michigan State 3 18.4
74% 17 Auburn 28 26.0, 43 Wisconsin 14 17.5
74% 11 Maryland 41 28.3, 32 West Virginia 7 19.9
72% 22 Virginia 23 29.1, 44 Pittsburgh 16 21.5
68% 9 Georgia 34 24.2, 26 Purdue 27 18.0
67% 38 Texas Tech 38 41.0, 66 Navy 14 35.9
67% 24 Arkansas 27 34.4, 39 Missouri 14 28.7
67% 21 Delaware 40 26.6, 36 Colgate 0 21.0
63% 35 Utah 17 22.0, 55 Southern Mississippi 0 18.0
62% 20 Mississippi 31 31.1, 30 Oklahoma State 28 27.8
61% 71 Memphis State 27 23.8, 86 North Texas 17 20.8
59% 45 Boston College 35 28.8, 53 Colorado State 21 27.2
59% 18 California 52 30.2, 23 Virginia Tech 49 28.4
55% 46 Oregon State 55 27.1, 49 New Mexico 14 26.1
39% 8 Miami - Florida 16 19.6, 6 Florida State 14 22.3
37% 19 Iowa 37 19.9, 10 Florida 17 23.5
34% 31 Clemson 27 20.4, 16 Tennessee 14 25.6
30% 109 Fresno State 17 18.4, 69 California - Los Angel 9 25.4
27% 4 Louisiana State 21 18.5, 1 Oklahoma 14 26.6
26% 15 Washington State 28 25.2, 5 Texas 20 33.6
13% 29 Ohio State 35 12.0, 3 Kansas State 28 31.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.74 11 0.98 11 1.09 4 0.89 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 29 22 20.5 1.07
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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