01 Jan 2005: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  1   9 17.1  7.4 Southern California      121 33   0 12.9  3.7 Rutgers                 
  2  2   8 16.5  7.4 Oklahoma                 122 13   0 10.9  5.1 Florida Atlantic        
  3  2   7 18.0  5.9 Louisville               123 37   0 10.9  5.1 Arizona                 
  4  2   7 15.3  7.7 Auburn                   124 37   0 11.8  4.4 California Poly         
  5  2   7 17.6  6.0 Utah                     125 31   0 11.3  4.8 Mississippi State       
  6  3   7 16.5  6.7 California               126 12   0 11.1  4.9 Cornell                 
  7  2   7 15.3  7.3 Miami - Florida          127 53   0 11.1  4.9 North Dakota State      
  8  4   7 15.1  7.4 Virginia Tech            128 17   0 12.0  4.2 Stephen F. Austin       
  9  3   6 16.1  6.5 Texas                    129 16   0 12.6  3.7 Rhode Island            
 10  5   6 15.1  7.1 Georgia                  130 54   0 12.6  3.8 Drake                   
 11  6   6 15.0  6.8 Louisiana State          131 43   0 12.2  4.0 Kentucky                
 12 10   6 14.1  7.4 Florida State            132 32   0 12.2  3.9 Illinois                
 13  4   5 17.0  5.1 Boise State              133 32   0 12.4  3.7 Northwestern State      
 14  5   5 15.0  6.5 Harvard                  134 36   0 12.4  3.7 South Carolina State    
 15  5   5 14.6  6.7 Iowa                     135 12   0 11.5  4.4 Richmond                
 16  9   5 15.0  6.4 Virginia                 136 24   0 11.9  4.1 Eastern Kentucky        
 17  5   5 16.7  5.1 Bowling Green            137 37   0 11.6  4.3 Robert Morris           
 18  6   5 15.2  6.2 Purdue                   138 18   0 12.1  3.9 South Florida           
 19  6   5 16.4  5.3 Texas Tech               139 21   0 13.0  3.2 Akron                   
 20 17   5 15.6  5.9 Michigan                 140 19   0 11.2  4.5 Columbia                
 21 12   5 15.4  5.9 Florida                  141 30   0 12.7  3.4 Temple                  
 22 10   5 16.5  4.9 Georgia Southern         142 12   0 12.6  3.4 Tulane                  
 23  6   4 15.4  5.5 Fresno State             143 44   0 12.1  3.7 Sacred Heart            
 24 16   4 13.9  6.6 Ohio State               144 70   0 12.5  3.4 Coastal Carolina        
 25 12   4 14.6  6.0 Southern Illinois        145 26   0 11.8  3.8 Central Connecticut     
 26  9   4 15.3  5.4 Arizona State            146 11   0 11.3  4.1 Albany                  
 27 16   4 14.8  5.8 Tennessee                147 41   0 11.0  4.3 Washington              
 28 17   4 15.6  5.1 Arkansas                 148 11   0 11.1  4.2 Ohio                    
 29 16   4 13.5  6.6 Georgia Tech             149 16   0  9.9  5.1 Dartmouth               
 30  8   4 13.8  6.4 Pennsylvania             150 38   0 12.6  3.1 California - Davis      
 31  8   4 15.0  5.4 Oklahoma State           151 30   0 12.1  3.5 Nevada - Las Vegas      
 32 10   4 14.7  5.5 Texas A&M                152 12   0 12.3  3.3 Stony Brook             
 33 28   4 14.4  5.8 North Carolina State     153 39   0 11.9  3.6 Southern                
 34 21   4 14.7  5.5 Oregon State             154 61   0 11.2  4.0 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
 35 39   4 14.0  6.1 Clemson                  155 10   0 12.5  3.0 Tulsa                   
 36  8   4 14.5  5.7 Villanova                156 17   0 11.4  3.8 Nicholls State          
 37 14   4 13.6  6.3 Alabama                  157 25   0 10.7  4.3 Wagner                  
 38 17   4 15.1  5.1 Minnesota                158 10   0 12.3  3.1 Holy Cross              
 39 13   4 14.6  5.5 West Virginia            159 20   0 11.9  3.4 North Texas             
 40 13   3 13.3  6.3 Wisconsin                160 14  -1 12.1  3.2 New Mexico State        
 41 15   3 14.1  5.6 Delaware                 161 13  -1 10.9  4.1 Youngstown State        
 42 13   3 13.3  6.1 Boston College           162 16  -1 11.9  3.4 Houston                 
 43 15   3 13.7  5.8 Furman                   163 10  -1 12.2  3.1 Montana State           
 44  9   3 14.8  4.9 New Hampshire            164 19  -1 11.9  3.2 Baylor                  
 45 26   3 13.8  5.6 Notre Dame               165 10  -1 12.1  3.1 Rice                    
 46  9   3 13.4  5.9 Lehigh                   166 10  -1 12.0  3.1 Middle Tennessee State  
 47 15   3 14.5  5.0 California - Los Angeles 167 27  -1 11.4  3.4 Southern Utah           
 48 53   3 12.8  6.3 Maryland                 168 28  -1 10.4  4.2 Murray State            
 49 16   3 14.7  4.8 Montana                  169 50  -1 10.5  4.0 Alabama A&M             
 50 17   3 13.8  5.5 Kansas                   170 10  -1 11.6  3.0 Southwest Missouri State
 51  9   3 13.4  5.7 James Madison            171 26  -1 10.8  3.6 Utah State              
 52 15   3 13.8  5.4 Pittsburgh               172 10  -1 10.6  3.7 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 53 15   3 14.0  5.1 Northern Iowa            173 20  -1  9.9  4.2 The Citadel             
 54 33   3 13.1  5.8 South Carolina           174 10  -1  9.9  4.2 Western Carolina        
 55 10   3 13.9  5.2 Lafayette                175 10  -1 11.8  2.7 Florida International   
 56  9   3 15.0  4.4 William & Mary           176 15  -1 12.1  2.5 Nevada - Reno           
 57 27   3 13.8  5.3 Colorado                 177 19  -1 11.3  3.1 Texas State - San Marcos
 58 10   3 14.9  4.5 Hofstra                  178  9  -1 11.9  2.5 Illinois State          
 59 17   3 12.4  6.3 New Mexico               179 18  -2 10.3  3.7 Towson                  
 60 33   2 14.9  4.4 Kansas State             180 29  -2 11.4  2.9 Grambling               
 61 15   2 14.9  4.4 North Carolina           181 31  -2 11.4  2.9 Gardner - Webb          
 62 38   2 14.1  5.0 Washington State         182 10  -2 11.4  2.9 Central Michigan        
 63  9   2 13.7  5.2 Connecticut              183 39  -2 10.5  3.5 Alcorn State            
 64  9   2 14.6  4.4 Northern Illinois        184  9  -2 10.2  3.7 Georgetown              
 65 20   2 14.1  4.8 Northeastern             185  9  -2 11.3  2.9 Northern Arizona        
 66 17   2 14.5  4.5 Michigan State           186 43  -2  9.8  3.9 Howard                  
 67 10   2 13.3  5.4 Massachusetts            187 11  -2 10.8  3.1 Northeast Louisiana     
 68 19   2 12.7  5.8 Stanford                 188 32  -2 10.8  3.0 Tennessee Tech          
 69 10   2 13.4  5.2 Navy                     189 10  -2 12.0  2.2 McNeese State           
 70 10   2 13.7  5.0 Bucknell                 190 10  -2 11.9  2.2 Idaho State             
 71 29   2 13.9  4.8 Oregon                   191 22  -2 11.8  2.2 Western Michigan        
 72 19   2 12.9  5.5 Missouri                 192 21  -2 11.3  2.6 Ball State              
 73  9   2 13.6  5.0 Miami - Ohio             193 49  -2 11.7  2.2 Southeast Louisiana     
 74 12   2 13.9  4.7 Maine                    194 31  -2 10.7  3.0 Liberty                 
 75 35   2 13.3  5.1 Nebraska                 195  9  -2 11.2  2.6 Army                    
 76 25   2 11.6  6.4 Penn State               196 26  -2 13.2  1.0 Morgan State            
 77 22   2 14.1  4.5 Texas - El Paso          197 16  -2 11.8  2.1 Samford                 
 78 14   2 13.2  5.1 Colgate                  198 13  -2  9.9  3.5 Northern Colorado       
 79 32   2 13.3  5.0 Wake Forest              199 19  -2 10.9  2.7 Tennessee State         
 80 10   2 12.3  5.7 Iowa State               200 14  -2 10.7  2.9 Central Florida         
 81 10   2 14.9  3.7 Memphis                  201  9  -2 12.2  1.7 Eastern Michigan        
 82 15   2 12.7  5.4 Western Kentucky         202  9  -2 11.7  2.1 Western Illinois        
 83 14   2 13.4  4.8 Wyoming                  203  9  -2 12.2  1.7 San Jose State          
 84 15   2 14.2  4.2 Toledo                   204  9  -2 10.4  3.1 Southern Methodist      
 85 32   2 13.3  4.8 Colorado State           205  9  -2 10.8  2.7 Arkansas State          
 86 40   1 14.6  3.8 Hampton                  206 40  -2 10.4  3.0 Jackson State           
 87 31   1 14.3  4.0 Eastern Washington       207 27  -2  8.9  4.0 Morehead State          
 88 16   1 13.5  4.6 Cincinnati               208 30  -2 10.6  2.7 Eastern Illinois        
 89 38   1 13.1  4.9 Mississippi              209 16  -2 10.9  2.5 Southeast Missouri State
 90 11   1 12.6  5.2 Princeton                210 32  -3  9.7  3.4 South Dakota State      
 91 14   1 12.9  4.9 Marshall                 211  9  -3 11.2  2.2 East Carolina           
 92 18   1 14.0  4.1 Air Force                212 12  -3 10.8  2.4 Idaho                   
 93 14   1 13.4  4.6 Fordham                  213  9  -3 10.1  2.9 Weber State             
 94 16   1 13.0  4.8 Brigham Young            214  8  -3  9.9  2.9 Buffalo                 
 95 12   1 12.8  4.9 Yale                     215  8  -3 11.0  2.1 Florida A&M             
 96 12   1 11.8  5.6 Troy State               216 14  -3  9.2  3.3 Elon                    
 97 11   1 12.7  4.9 Brown                    217  7  -3 11.1  1.9 Indiana State           
 98 28   1 12.9  4.7 Northwestern             218 11  -3  9.6  2.9 Marist                  
 99 43   1 13.8  4.0 Jacksonville State       219 11  -3  9.1  3.2 North Carolina A&T      
100 25   1 13.5  4.2 Syracuse                 220 17  -3  9.4  2.9 Delaware State          
101 28   1 14.4  3.6 San Diego                221 16  -4  9.9  2.2 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
102 42   1 12.3  5.1 Dayton                   222  7  -4  8.9  3.0 Virginia Military       
103 29   1 12.8  4.7 Portland State           223  8  -4 12.0  0.4 La Salle                
104 17   1 12.2  5.1 Southern Mississippi     224  6  -4  9.8  1.9 Sacramento State        
105 52   1 13.6  3.9 Alabama State            225 35  -4  9.4  2.2 Mississippi Valley State
106 15   1 13.2  4.2 Alabama - Birmingham     226  6  -4  8.6  2.8 Saint Peter's           
107 24   0 12.4  4.5 Vanderbilt               227  9  -5 10.2  1.4 Valparaiso              
108 36   0 11.6  5.0 Monmouth                 228  5  -5  9.6  1.8 Iona                    
109 25   0 12.0  4.8 San Diego State          229  5  -5 11.9 -0.2 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
110 12   0 13.1  4.0 Kent State               230 39  -5  8.7  2.0 Charleston Southern     
111 20   0 12.7  4.2 Wofford                  231  4  -6  8.7  1.8 Davidson                
112 20   0 13.2  3.7 Duquesne                 232  4  -6  8.1  1.8 Butler                  
113 38   0 13.5  3.4 Sam Houston State        233 17  -6  9.9  0.3 Prairie View            
114 17   0 14.4  2.7 Hawaii                   234  3  -7  8.3  1.2 Tennessee - Martin      
115 24   0 13.9  3.1 Texas Christian          235  3  -7  8.7  0.6 Jacksonville            
116 39   0 12.2  4.3 Duke                     236  3  -7  9.1  0.3 Norfolk State           
117 14   0 12.6  4.0 Louisiana Tech           237  2  -7  6.9  1.8 Austin Peay             
118 17   0 13.6  3.2 Appalachian State        238  2  -7  6.4  2.2 Texas Southern          
119 40   0 12.5  4.0 Bethune - Cookman        239  2  -8  8.7  0.3 Savannah State          
120 31   0 12.6  3.9 Indiana                 

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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