prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 18 Auburn 31 55.3, 206 Northeast Louisiana 0 5.5
91% 115 Western Michigan 42 52.7, 234 Tennessee - Martin 0 10.8
91% 64 Arizona State 41 51.3, 224 Texas - El Paso 9 12.4
91% 41 Missouri 52 50.3, 209 Arkansas State 20 7.9
91% 26 Arkansas 63 49.1, 183 New Mexico State 13 11.9
91% 19 Iowa 39 47.4, 166 Kent State 7 10.3
91% 17 Boise State 65 49.3, 177 Idaho 7 9.7
90% 52 Connecticut 52 45.4, 205 Murray State 14 11.5
90% 49 Wisconsin 34 41.7, 191 Central Florida 6 11.1
90% 39 West Virginia 56 47.6, 196 East Carolina 23 13.5
90% 37 Texas Tech 27 50.6, 220 Southern Methodist 13 11.7
90% 20 North Carolina State 42 51.5, 182 Richmond 0 15.3
90% 2 Kansas State 27 40.4, 55 Western Kentucky 13 10.1
89% 80 Lafayette 48 44.1, 208 Marist 7 14.1
89% 50 Massachusetts 51 44.6, 216 Delaware State 0 10.1
89% 6 Texas 65 41.9, 91 North Texas 0 13.1
88% 54 Georgia Tech 28 37.8, 175 Samford 7 13.7
88% 38 Alabama 48 40.4, 161 Utah State 17 14.9
88% 10 Georgia 48 39.3, 88 Georgia Southern 28 14.2
88% 9 Maryland 23 38.1, 83 Northern Illinois 20 13.0
88% 1 Oklahoma 40 42.3, 35 Bowling Green 24 16.7
87% 42 Lehigh 25 39.1, 152 Stony Brook 2 15.9
87% 36 Villanova 20 33.4, 121 Bucknell 14 12.1
87% 24 Tennessee 42 32.5, 100 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 10.6
87% 22 Ohio State 27 36.2, 105 Cincinnati 6 13.4
86% 86 Southern Illinois 42 36.4, 185 Southeast Missouri Sta 3 15.6
86% 33 Utah 41 38.8, 128 Texas A&M 21 16.6
85% 171 Georgetown 36 36.6, 227 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 16.0
85% 114 Towson 34 31.6, 219 Elon 13 9.1
85% 23 Virginia 44 39.3, 141 Temple 14 16.8
84% 174 Wagner 35 33.0, 230 La Salle 28 14.0
84% 125 Alabama - Birmingham 56 32.7, 197 Baylor 14 15.1
84% 124 Hampton 38 34.9, 201 Jackson State 19 16.3
84% 106 Monmouth 44 26.6, 218 Saint Peter's 3 6.3
84% 4 Louisiana State 22 31.5, 32 Oregon State 21 13.5
83% 45 Boston College 19 37.2, 168 Ball State 11 18.6
81% 29 Purdue 51 33.2, 79 Syracuse 0 17.5
80% 28 Clemson 37 34.0, 70 Wake Forest 30 19.4
79% 131 Stanford 43 32.9, 188 San Jose State 3 19.7
79% 30 Nebraska 56 32.9, 68 Western Illinois 17 19.5
79% 27 Minnesota 63 41.7, 75 Toledo 21 27.0
78% 146 Alabama State 27 30.8, 200 Howard 12 18.9
78% 89 Duquesne 31 39.9, 189 Holy Cross 7 25.9
77% 155 Southwest Missouri Sta 31 37.9, 194 Drake 26 25.5
77% 96 Kansas 21 39.7, 147 Tulsa 3 27.3
77% 61 Texas Christian 48 28.1, 102 Northwestern 45 17.3
77% 14 Washington State 21 32.9, 69 New Mexico 17 21.1
75% 112 San Diego State 38 29.5, 148 Idaho State 21 19.9
75% 87 Navy 27 26.8, 123 Duke 12 17.8
73% 192 Eastern Michigan 37 25.9, 207 Buffalo 34 17.7
73% 21 California 56 35.3, 71 Air Force 14 25.9
72% 130 Illinois 52 26.2, 160 Florida A&M 13 18.5
72% 74 South Carolina 31 29.2, 135 Vanderbilt 6 20.9
69% 73 Penn State 48 31.7, 90 Akron 10 24.7
64% 181 Indiana 41 28.5, 187 Central Michigan 10 23.8
64% 34 Oklahoma State 31 28.3, 66 California - Los Angel 20 23.4
62% 92 Louisville 28 31.7, 95 Kentucky 0 27.8
61% 222 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 49 17.9, 229 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 15.1
61% 158 Louisiana Tech 38 30.7, 154 Nevada - Reno 21 27.5
61% 133 Nicholls State 37 33.6, 132 Eastern Washington 14 30.5
61% 7 Michigan 43 23.9, 8 Miami - Ohio 10 20.2
60% 47 Montana 27 24.9, 43 Maine 20 22.6
59% 57 Colorado 27 29.7, 51 Colorado State 24 27.7
45% 180 Mississippi State 28 31.3, 150 Tulane 7 32.3
44% 190 Ohio 42 25.0, 170 Virginia Military 14 26.2
44% 129 Wyoming 53 24.7, 110 Appalachian State 7 25.8
44% 122 North Carolina 49 34.2, 98 William & Mary 38 35.5
41% 59 McNeese State 35 27.4, 65 Southern 17 29.5
40% 151 Rice 10 34.1, 137 Houston 7 36.7
37% 167 Northern Colorado 15 12.9, 97 North Dakota State 13 21.3
36% 169 Tennessee State 42 21.2, 120 Alabama A&M 7 25.7
32% 156 Arizona 21 21.3, 103 Northern Arizona 3 27.9
31% 203 Central Connecticut 27 24.5, 163 Sacred Heart 6 31.8
30% 118 Rutgers 19 25.5, 62 Michigan State 14 33.2
29% 109 Florida Atlantic 35 29.1, 81 Hawaii 28 37.4
27% 101 Fresno State 35 19.0, 78 Washington 16 27.3
25% 212 Tennessee Tech 32 21.5, 173 Gardner - Webb 26 31.4
24% 202 Louisiana - Lafayette 14 19.3, 134 Northwestern State 7 29.9
24% 164 Iowa State 23 19.3, 82 Northern Iowa 0 29.7
24% 153 Hofstra 45 20.0, 77 Albany 0 30.8
23% 143 Brigham Young 20 14.8, 63 Notre Dame 17 26.1
22% 178 Alcorn State 34 24.2, 117 Grambling 23 37.2
21% 193 Southern Utah 34 16.8, 145 Weber State 31 29.7
18% 127 Rhode Island 37 21.2, 48 Fordham 36 39.2
18% 72 Memphis State 20 19.4, 25 Mississippi 13 35.6
16% 136 Troy State 17 10.1, 56 Marshall 15 27.9
13% 116 New Hampshire 24 17.9, 15 Delaware 21 44.5
10% 217 Coastal Carolina 28 8.7, 111 Morehead State 7 38.5
9% 239 Prairie View 25 8.6, 213 Texas Southern 7 52.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 0.25 13 1.09 25 0.79 34 0.99 10 0.99 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 89 63 69.6 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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