prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 101 Tennessee State 27 48.7, 232 Tennessee - Martin 13 6.5
92% 99 Southern 17 55.0, 234 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 5.0
92% 70 Monmouth 34 45.5, 223 La Salle 15 4.1
92% 35 Memphis State 52 53.0, 219 Tennessee - Chattanoog 21 4.8
92% 29 Bowling Green 49 51.3, 197 Southeast Missouri Sta 10 6.7
92% 23 Maryland 45 43.5, 144 Temple 22 10.2
92% 8 Louisiana State 53 60.2, 207 Arkansas State 3 3.3
92% 6 California 41 64.8, 191 New Mexico State 14 8.5
92% 5 Purdue 59 45.7, 140 Ball State 7 2.6
92% 2 Oklahoma 63 57.0, 154 Houston 13 6.2
91% 135 Alabama State 55 49.2, 235 Texas Southern 15 5.6
91% 39 Louisville 52 45.4, 213 Army 21 6.8
91% 15 Florida 49 54.4, 187 Eastern Michigan 10 9.1
91% 10 Minnesota 37 54.6, 147 Illinois State 21 15.2
90% 95 Michigan State 24 40.8, 210 Central Michigan 7 11.2
90% 69 Texas Christian 44 42.0, 200 Southern Methodist 0 10.0
90% 30 Oklahoma State 38 41.5, 157 Tulsa 21 8.8
90% 3 Southern California 49 39.8, 71 Colorado State 0 11.3
88% 56 Maine 38 37.2, 168 Northern Colorado 0 10.5
87% 92 South Florida 21 40.1, 196 Tennessee Tech 7 15.2
87% 26 Ohio State 24 32.0, 104 Marshall 21 10.0
86% 162 Southwest Missouri Sta 33 38.7, 220 Sam Houston State 31 18.0
86% 122 Hampton 47 31.5, 205 Howard 14 12.1
86% 87 Dayton 28 29.0, 189 Morehead State 0 6.0
86% 45 West Virginia 45 39.0, 175 Central Florida 20 17.8
86% 21 Virginia 56 45.1, 94 North Carolina 24 22.9
85% 150 Coastal Carolina 31 37.4, 222 Davidson 24 16.0
85% 51 Connecticut 22 35.8, 128 Duke 20 16.9
84% 78 Rhode Island 39 36.5, 163 Central Connecticut 7 17.4
84% 68 Wake Forest 31 47.5, 192 East Carolina 17 24.8
84% 25 Auburn 43 28.3, 141 Mississippi State 14 6.4
84% 20 Virginia Tech 63 34.4, 107 Western Michigan 0 7.8
82% 89 San Diego 37 42.7, 203 Holy Cross 31 22.5
82% 67 Furman 45 32.2, 164 Samford 10 16.2
82% 47 Pittsburgh 24 36.4, 131 Ohio 3 17.1
81% 145 Kent State 38 40.8, 215 Liberty 10 22.2
80% 49 Delaware 21 27.3, 118 Towson 17 10.6
79% 73 Lafayette 17 33.0, 153 Georgetown 6 19.4
79% 61 Wisconsin 18 29.2, 113 Nevada - Las Vegas 3 16.3
79% 24 Iowa 17 23.6, 77 Iowa State 10 5.8
78% 93 Stephen F. Austin 24 29.6, 139 Northern Arizona 17 16.7
78% 36 Utah 23 24.6, 112 Arizona 6 11.2
78% 1 Texas 22 37.1, 17 Arkansas 20 23.8
77% 129 Louisiana Tech 24 29.7, 174 Louisiana - Lafayette 20 18.0
77% 120 Air Force 42 33.8, 160 Eastern Washington 20 22.0
77% 98 Fordham 14 33.8, 179 Albany 0 22.0
76% 176 Tulane 39 30.8, 201 Florida A&M 19 20.8
76% 80 Florida Atlantic 20 28.1, 158 North Texas 13 16.1
76% 11 Boise State 53 38.5, 27 Oregon State 34 27.5
75% 143 Syracuse 37 32.0, 209 Buffalo 17 20.1
74% 172 Nevada - Reno 59 31.4, 198 Sacramento State 7 22.0
74% 85 Kansas 63 30.8, 117 Toledo 14 20.4
73% 119 Bethune - Cookman 27 30.8, 182 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 14 20.5
72% 44 Wofford 24 26.3, 108 South Carolina State 22 18.6
72% 28 Massachusetts 30 24.1, 43 Colgate 20 15.4
71% 83 Stanford 37 22.9, 111 Brigham Young 10 15.8
71% 34 Alabama 28 28.9, 53 Mississippi 7 20.6
69% 169 Utah State 14 32.5, 188 Idaho 7 25.3
67% 183 Wagner 28 24.8, 217 Marist 13 18.9
67% 14 Georgia 20 25.7, 40 South Carolina 16 19.2
64% 42 Montana 41 25.0, 50 Hofstra 23 19.5
63% 130 Alcorn State 16 23.3, 134 North Carolina A&T 13 19.0
63% 57 Northern Illinois 23 28.4, 62 Southern Illinois 22 23.8
61% 75 New Mexico 27 34.0, 74 Texas Tech 24 30.4
61% 60 New Hampshire 35 30.7, 90 Rutgers 24 27.6
60% 171 Northwestern State 28 20.9, 199 Jackson State 20 18.4
56% 13 Miami - Florida 16 20.5, 9 Florida State 10 19.5
54% 186 Richmond 34 19.9, 206 Virginia Military 7 19.2
52% 84 Arizona State 30 29.3, 97 Northwestern 21 28.8
39% 181 Alabama A&M 21 23.2, 151 Grambling 9 25.9
39% 91 Troy State 24 19.9, 55 Missouri 14 22.7
39% 63 Boston College 21 17.6, 31 Penn State 7 20.5
38% 156 California Poly 35 29.3, 152 Idaho State 20 32.7
38% 81 California - Los Angel 35 22.1, 76 Illinois 17 26.3
37% 180 Appalachian State 49 23.2, 138 Eastern Kentucky 21 27.8
37% 170 Florida International 22 17.0, 165 Youngstown State 16 21.0
37% 149 Middle Tennessee State 31 36.2, 136 Akron 24 41.1
37% 52 Villanova 22 15.6, 46 Lehigh 16 19.6
33% 225 Saint Francis - Pennsy 35 18.5, 202 Sacred Heart 28 24.7
33% 214 Texas - El Paso 32 24.8, 184 Weber State 0 31.3
31% 237 Savannah State 41 20.8, 233 Norfolk State 34 27.5
31% 190 Gardner - Webb 56 29.6, 166 Morgan State 49 37.0
30% 161 Western Carolina 28 21.6, 106 Nicholls State 7 28.9
27% 82 Navy 28 20.5, 32 Northeastern 24 29.4
26% 125 Texas A&M 31 28.8, 54 Wyoming 0 38.9
26% 102 Cincinnati 45 20.3, 38 Miami - Ohio 26 30.2
24% 66 Georgia Tech 28 14.2, 33 Clemson 24 24.2
23% 48 Colorado 20 20.4, 19 Washington State 12 32.1
22% 221 Indiana State 33 7.3, 193 Eastern Illinois 30 20.0
22% 137 Robert Morris 34 15.1, 65 Duquesne 14 27.2
20% 126 Indiana 30 17.2, 64 Oregon 24 33.3
15% 239 Valparaiso 24 12.5, 227 Austin Peay 14 30.7
14% 72 Southern Mississippi 21 7.0, 12 Nebraska 17 29.7
13% 58 Fresno State 45 9.8, 7 Kansas State 21 34.7
11% 96 Notre Dame 28 12.0, 4 Michigan 20 40.5
9% 229 Southeast Louisiana 51 13.2, 37 McNeese State 17 66.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.85 22 0.64 29 0.91 23 0.97 19 1.04 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 96 69 74.4 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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