prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 136 Nicholls State 21 50.8, 238 Texas Southern 6 10.6
92% 125 Bethune - Cookman 43 58.8, 236 Norfolk State 3 11.5
92% 86 Southern Illinois 49 51.8, 233 Delaware State 0 6.7
92% 77 Connecticut 40 51.7, 224 Army 3 13.3
92% 64 Dayton 40 47.4, 234 Austin Peay 0 4.2
92% 35 Georgia Southern 51 66.0, 231 Tennessee - Chattanoog 17 20.9
92% 22 Auburn 33 45.9, 190 The Citadel 3 3.3
92% 18 Tennessee 42 48.8, 161 Louisiana Tech 17 12.1
92% 17 Boise State 28 50.2, 147 Brigham Young 27 16.7
92% 10 Louisiana State 51 40.6, 137 Mississippi State 0 3.7
92% 7 Miami - Florida 38 44.4, 140 Houston 13 8.2
92% 5 Virginia 31 44.6, 103 Syracuse 10 7.3
92% 4 Purdue 38 46.9, 112 Illinois 30 13.6
92% 3 Texas 35 45.4, 91 Rice 13 6.7
91% 95 Robert Morris 28 39.6, 213 Saint Francis - Pennsy 10 13.3
91% 61 Hampton 49 56.1, 206 Morgan State 37 25.9
90% 96 William & Mary 42 37.0, 210 Virginia Military 6 6.2
90% 92 Oregon 48 36.2, 196 Idaho 10 11.4
90% 13 Minnesota 43 46.0, 115 Northwestern 17 17.9
90% 11 Florida State 41 36.9, 97 Clemson 22 8.6
89% 142 Ohio 34 39.2, 218 Buffalo 0 16.3
89% 1 Southern California 31 42.0, 70 Stanford 28 9.2
88% 50 New Mexico 38 35.1, 173 New Mexico State 3 12.2
88% 12 Florida 20 42.2, 99 Kentucky 3 16.7
87% 188 Howard 53 36.3, 232 Savannah State 7 8.9
87% 72 Stephen F. Austin 24 39.2, 177 Southern Utah 21 15.6
86% 139 California - Davis 58 39.0, 212 Sacramento State 23 17.1
86% 102 Montana 27 39.0, 182 Northern Colorado 16 18.6
86% 83 Colgate 33 32.2, 174 Georgetown 0 10.6
86% 47 Notre Dame 38 36.8, 131 Washington 3 16.7
86% 33 South Carolina 17 23.3, 106 Troy State 7 5.9
86% 28 Maryland 55 33.1, 122 Duke 21 14.8
86% 26 Washington State 20 26.8, 123 Arizona 19 7.6
85% 155 Youngstown State 27 33.1, 211 Liberty 17 15.2
85% 76 Cincinnati 24 38.3, 194 East Carolina 19 19.9
85% 39 Navy 29 30.9, 121 Vanderbilt 26 13.0
85% 20 Utah 49 30.3, 75 Air Force 35 12.5
84% 202 Indiana State 41 31.0, 230 Tennessee - Martin 24 13.7
83% 134 Northern Arizona 55 33.0, 205 Weber State 27 15.8
82% 227 Valparaiso 54 31.1, 239 Jacksonville 38 9.6
82% 24 Michigan 30 31.0, 73 Iowa 17 14.8
81% 191 Jackson State 31 31.8, 223 Mississippi Valley Sta 16 16.7
80% 82 Colorado State 39 26.0, 154 Montana State 14 9.4
80% 54 Southern Mississippi 32 32.9, 149 Tulane 14 18.5
76% 199 Drake 42 27.6, 216 Morehead State 12 17.1
76% 40 Wisconsin 16 19.9, 63 Penn State 3 12.1
75% 111 Jacksonville State 30 34.9, 170 Eastern Kentucky 23 24.8
75% 53 San Diego State 27 27.7, 101 Nevada - Reno 10 17.2
73% 29 Arizona State 27 32.4, 46 Oregon State 14 22.4
72% 110 Alabama State 41 33.8, 160 Alcorn State 8 25.5
69% 36 West Virginia 45 24.0, 65 James Madison 10 15.8
68% 62 Fordham 41 23.1, 84 Duquesne 34 16.1
67% 79 Princeton 24 34.6, 132 San Diego 17 27.9
64% 44 Wake Forest 17 24.7, 51 Boston College 14 20.0
62% 226 Davidson 21 24.1, 228 Butler 14 20.5
62% 185 North Carolina A&T 19 21.0, 189 Elon 17 17.0
62% 157 Eastern Washington 47 42.2, 159 Idaho State 22 38.5
62% 42 Northeastern 27 22.2, 80 Towson 3 18.8
61% 176 Tulsa 49 22.5, 172 Southwest Missouri Sta 7 19.7
61% 89 Wyoming 37 23.4, 88 Mississippi 32 20.1
61% 31 Texas Tech 31 35.3, 57 Kansas 30 32.0
60% 21 Arkansas 27 32.0, 15 Alabama 10 29.5
59% 167 Portland State 35 25.7, 162 McNeese State 14 24.0
56% 187 Arkansas State 28 37.5, 207 Northeast Louisiana 21 36.0
56% 124 Northwestern State 40 25.6, 116 Appalachian State 35 24.4
56% 41 Louisville 34 36.8, 66 North Carolina 0 35.5
54% 105 Michigan State 30 26.2, 119 Indiana 20 25.5
54% 45 Harvard 35 20.2, 67 Brown 34 19.4
52% 222 Marist 41 25.7, 215 Iona 14 25.4
50% 166 Sam Houston State 45 37.4, 179 Southeast Louisiana 17 37.5
48% 150 Louisiana - Lafayette 24 22.4, 130 Middle Tennessee State 17 22.8
47% 225 La Salle 30 28.8, 229 Saint Peter's 27 29.5
47% 141 Bucknell 42 17.4, 118 Columbia 13 17.9
45% 178 Gardner - Webb 26 24.9, 164 Western Carolina 20 25.9
44% 60 Delaware 21 20.0, 71 Massachusetts 7 21.3
42% 56 Pittsburgh 41 16.3, 34 Furman 38 17.7
41% 108 Lafayette 21 19.1, 113 Richmond 16 20.9
41% 93 New Hampshire 45 19.4, 104 Dartmouth 24 21.5
40% 209 Southeast Missouri Sta 51 27.1, 198 Samford 48 29.4
40% 181 Central Connecticut 28 18.6, 151 Wagner 21 20.5
39% 201 Eastern Illinois 31 31.9, 200 Eastern Michigan 28 34.7
38% 114 Hofstra 62 28.2, 74 Rhode Island 43 31.7
37% 184 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 24 18.2, 165 Alabama A&M 10 22.4
37% 100 Alabama - Birmingham 35 25.6, 59 Memphis 28 29.8
30% 163 Toledo 45 32.6, 109 Temple 17 39.3
29% 217 Murray State 34 21.1, 183 Tennessee Tech 15 28.6
26% 214 Southern Methodist 36 18.1, 171 San Jose State 13 27.9
25% 204 Ball State 41 20.2, 145 Western Michigan 14 29.6
24% 221 Baylor 37 19.9, 168 North Texas 14 32.5
24% 197 Albany 23 14.3, 146 Sacred Heart 6 25.6
23% 192 Akron 24 25.1, 152 Kent State 19 36.2
23% 90 Northern Illinois 34 31.5, 19 Bowling Green 17 44.4
22% 156 Stony Brook 27 11.7, 107 Monmouth 0 24.4
22% 143 South Florida 45 22.1, 98 Texas Christian 44 35.1
20% 193 Utah State 31 13.9, 133 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 27.8
19% 23 North Carolina State 17 19.5, 6 Virginia Tech 16 36.3
17% 208 Florida A&M 21 17.0, 128 Tennessee State 15 35.1
13% 186 Cornell 19 12.4, 48 Yale 7 38.8
11% 81 Villanova 16 8.4, 8 Pennsylvania 13 38.5
8% 237 South Dakota State 31 5.8, 169 Southern 24 44.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
18 0.70 16 1.19 18 0.59 30 0.97 18 1.03 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 100 69 75.9 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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