prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 149 Sacred Heart 48 38.1, 230 Saint Peter's 14 9.2
92% 86 Southern Mississippi 51 40.2, 205 East Carolina 10 9.8
92% 79 Marshall 48 41.6, 210 Buffalo 14 8.5
92% 66 Miami - Ohio 43 46.3, 199 Central Florida 7 17.6
92% 62 Dayton 49 49.9, 233 Butler 10 2.2
92% 16 Georgia Southern 42 46.7, 163 The Citadel 7 15.1
92% 13 Louisiana State 24 34.4, 117 Troy State 20 4.2
92% 12 Utah 63 38.8, 112 Nevada - Las Vegas 28 10.6
92% 11 Louisville 41 47.2, 130 South Florida 9 14.4
92% 6 California 38 47.7, 140 Arizona 0 10.0
92% 5 Auburn 42 42.8, 114 Kentucky 10 5.0
92% 2 Southern California 38 55.1, 147 Washington 0 3.8
91% 68 Western Kentucky 31 41.1, 185 Indiana State 9 14.1
91% 53 Furman 10 40.6, 198 Elon 0 13.9
91% 52 Connecticut 45 40.4, 167 Temple 31 15.2
91% 37 Southern Illinois 27 39.3, 172 Southwest Missouri Sta 3 14.8
91% 15 Bowling Green 41 42.6, 137 Ohio 16 16.7
91% 1 Oklahoma 41 38.3, 39 Kansas 10 10.0
90% 20 Virginia 37 37.9, 135 Duke 16 13.4
89% 146 Drake 37 43.6, 223 Valparaiso 10 20.9
89% 119 San Diego 56 48.0, 227 Davidson 0 19.4
89% 22 Wisconsin 24 31.6, 100 Northwestern 12 10.0
88% 157 Central Connecticut 35 36.0, 222 Saint Francis - Pennsy 17 15.7
88% 67 Northern Illinois 59 42.6, 194 Western Michigan 38 21.4
87% 177 Gardner - Webb 28 31.5, 229 Virginia Military 17 12.6
87% 92 Toledo 27 40.6, 179 Central Michigan 22 19.4
87% 43 Villanova 41 28.7, 126 Towson 6 7.8
87% 4 Florida State 20 33.4, 60 Wake Forest 17 13.4
86% 217 Florida A&M 50 40.6, 238 Savannah State 14 18.4
86% 124 Sam Houston State 20 38.8, 203 Northern Colorado 7 19.6
86% 65 Brown 21 26.3, 144 Cornell 17 7.9
86% 38 Minnesota 45 42.1, 118 Illinois 0 22.9
86% 25 West Virginia 27 35.3, 90 Syracuse 6 16.6
86% 14 Texas A&M 29 35.9, 70 Colorado 26 16.7
84% 125 Monmouth 27 24.7, 184 Georgetown 10 9.8
84% 116 Hawaii 46 47.2, 193 San Jose State 28 30.5
84% 108 Eastern Washington 51 37.1, 202 Weber State 7 20.5
82% 69 Navy 14 33.8, 138 Rice 13 17.6
81% 213 Morehead State 28 25.8, 231 Jacksonville 14 12.2
81% 156 Montana State 27 27.3, 208 South Dakota State 24 11.9
80% 226 Mississippi Valley Sta 15 24.1, 239 Texas Southern 14 11.0
80% 174 Idaho State 29 37.7, 215 Sacramento State 24 23.3
80% 73 Ohio State 30 32.7, 127 Indiana 7 18.3
80% 42 Lehigh 40 28.9, 96 Bucknell 17 15.9
79% 71 James Madison 26 29.3, 154 Richmond 20 16.7
79% 64 Pittsburgh 41 30.7, 121 Rutgers 17 17.3
79% 36 Delaware 31 32.7, 88 William & Mary 28 18.8
79% 35 Boise State 33 42.2, 80 Fresno State 16 30.6
78% 152 Middle Tennessee State 34 32.6, 186 Idaho 14 20.8
78% 103 Iowa State 26 30.0, 180 Baylor 25 17.8
78% 75 Colgate 41 31.0, 133 Holy Cross 7 16.5
78% 26 Pennsylvania 17 32.7, 91 Yale 7 20.6
78% 23 Arizona State 48 33.8, 45 California - Los Angel 42 21.6
78% 3 Miami - Florida 45 26.8, 29 North Carolina State 31 15.2
77% 160 Akron 35 34.3, 196 Ball State 23 23.0
77% 148 Columbia 9 22.0, 189 Dartmouth 6 10.5
76% 197 Murray State 28 29.3, 216 Southeast Missouri Sta 13 18.7
76% 182 Coastal Carolina 33 30.3, 211 Liberty 6 19.8
76% 175 North Texas 36 29.7, 204 New Mexico State 26 19.7
76% 113 Northern Iowa 36 36.1, 142 Western Illinois 13 26.2
76% 102 Texas Christian 34 40.4, 136 Houston 27 30.6
76% 74 New Mexico 19 20.9, 101 San Diego State 9 12.8
71% 166 Illinois State 30 29.5, 187 Youngstown State 24 21.7
69% 61 Kansas State 45 33.0, 72 Nebraska 21 25.9
69% 9 Georgia 20 31.3, 33 Arkansas 14 24.2
67% 214 Morgan State 34 39.0, 221 Delaware State 30 33.8
66% 85 Texas - El Paso 44 28.2, 129 Louisiana Tech 27 22.9
65% 145 Southern 23 24.4, 191 Alcorn State 20 19.3
65% 28 Harvard 39 29.7, 56 Princeton 14 24.5
64% 171 Louisiana - Lafayette 27 30.6, 178 Arkansas State 24 25.7
62% 151 Northern Arizona 21 25.4, 155 Portland State 20 21.6
62% 89 Colorado State 30 23.6, 93 Wyoming 7 19.7
61% 21 Oklahoma State 20 26.7, 40 Missouri 17 23.9
60% 120 Vanderbilt 19 28.3, 115 Eastern Kentucky 7 25.7
60% 55 Clemson 10 21.4, 48 Maryland 7 19.1
58% 27 Tennessee 17 21.1, 24 Alabama 13 19.5
55% 141 Nevada - Reno 54 29.1, 134 Tulsa 48 28.0
53% 218 Marist 41 34.2, 225 La Salle 35 33.7
52% 139 Albany 27 21.8, 161 Stony Brook 22 21.4
50% 84 Maine 35 28.5, 63 Northeastern 26 28.5
49% 162 Wagner 20 20.0, 143 Robert Morris 17 20.2
49% 95 Rhode Island 27 24.5, 81 Massachusetts 24 24.7
49% 77 Oregon State 38 21.3, 50 Washington State 19 21.5
49% 32 Iowa 6 17.0, 49 Penn State 4 17.2
47% 83 New Hampshire 33 37.5, 58 Hofstra 27 38.0
43% 123 Appalachian State 38 25.0, 105 Wofford 17 26.4
42% 132 California Poly 13 17.4, 150 North Dakota State 10 18.8
38% 99 Hampton 52 28.6, 94 South Carolina State 36 32.3
36% 192 Samford 42 30.3, 183 Tennessee State 36 35.1
36% 31 Boston College 24 15.8, 30 Notre Dame 23 19.9
33% 153 Southern Utah 19 29.2, 110 California - Davis 15 35.0
33% 57 Oregon 16 23.4, 44 Stanford 13 29.3
31% 17 Texas 51 25.3, 10 Texas Tech 21 32.4
28% 82 Lafayette 35 20.4, 54 Fordham 20 28.4
27% 219 North Carolina A&T 14 11.5, 176 Howard 13 19.9
26% 19 Michigan 16 21.7, 8 Purdue 14 30.6
24% 209 Jackson State 32 23.5, 181 Grambling 23 33.6
24% 168 Nicholls State 40 23.6, 109 Northwestern State 14 34.0
24% 111 Brigham Young 41 21.1, 76 Air Force 24 31.3
19% 128 Cincinnati 49 23.8, 41 Memphis 10 38.0
16% 235 Tennessee - Martin 32 18.8, 201 Eastern Illinois 14 35.4
15% 206 Texas State - San Marc 17 18.6, 106 Stephen F. Austin 14 36.8
13% 220 McNeese State 30 20.7, 158 Florida International 27 40.1
13% 200 Tennessee Tech 16 22.8, 59 Jacksonville State 13 46.4
12% 195 Northeast Louisiana 17 15.2, 107 Florida Atlantic 13 36.6
11% 190 Tulane 59 20.1, 51 Alabama - Birmingham 55 42.8
9% 232 Tennessee - Chattanoog 27 17.2, 165 Western Carolina 24 45.4
8% 164 Mississippi State 38 10.5, 18 Florida 31 42.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.86 17 1.00 28 1.02 29 0.89 21 0.99 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 80 83.6 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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