prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 187 Grambling 31 52.5, 239 Savannah State 26 21.4
92% 140 Southern 28 43.7, 237 Texas Southern 0 4.6
92% 132 Coastal Carolina 48 46.9, 235 Jacksonville 23 9.8
92% 108 Monmouth 49 33.9, 222 Saint Francis - Pennsy 39 4.4
92% 105 Alabama State 34 46.9, 226 Mississippi Valley Sta 6 16.1
92% 95 Hampton 51 41.4, 217 North Carolina A&T 24 9.6
92% 78 Montana 52 46.1, 214 Sacramento State 21 13.9
92% 39 New Hampshire 62 40.5, 175 Towson 24 7.5
92% 23 Southern Illinois 59 56.3, 216 Indiana State 10 6.5
92% 22 Oklahoma State 49 47.6, 151 Baylor 21 17.5
92% 19 Georgia Southern 53 55.0, 198 Florida International 32 19.2
92% 16 Boise State 56 61.8, 212 San Jose State 49 20.7
92% 4 California 42 52.0, 168 Washington 12 7.1
92% 2 Southern California 49 50.0, 135 Arizona 9 2.4
92% 1 Oklahoma 30 49.1, 76 Nebraska 3 11.6
91% 104 Duquesne 36 32.8, 213 Morehead State 33 5.8
91% 77 Western Kentucky 45 42.1, 188 Western Illinois 3 16.4
91% 11 Louisville 55 50.2, 123 Texas Christian 28 21.6
90% 186 Murray State 38 34.4, 233 Tennessee - Martin 0 10.4
90% 58 Miami - Ohio 42 40.7, 199 Western Michigan 21 17.2
89% 88 Jacksonville State 31 41.7, 209 Eastern Illinois 21 20.0
89% 51 Fresno State 70 41.2, 143 Hawaii 14 19.2
89% 9 Bowling Green 56 38.2, 86 Marshall 35 15.8
89% 3 Utah 45 47.8, 97 Wyoming 28 21.9
88% 164 Stony Brook 45 40.9, 229 Iona 13 19.6
88% 114 South Carolina State 38 47.6, 206 Morgan State 35 27.9
88% 103 South Florida 41 42.3, 207 East Carolina 17 18.2
87% 84 Troy State 13 31.1, 191 Louisiana - Lafayette 10 11.1
87% 75 Texas - El Paso 35 38.2, 158 Rice 28 18.6
87% 74 Northern Iowa 41 39.1, 163 Illinois State 14 18.1
87% 5 Texas 27 36.3, 65 Kansas 23 16.2
86% 68 Lafayette 56 36.3, 148 Holy Cross 20 17.4
86% 27 Arkansas 35 41.4, 93 Mississippi 3 23.0
86% 12 Michigan 42 35.3, 70 Northwestern 20 16.0
84% 94 San Diego 35 36.2, 161 Wagner 14 19.1
82% 113 Portland State 34 33.4, 208 Weber State 15 18.2
81% 20 Arizona State 45 35.2, 54 Washington State 28 20.7
80% 221 Delaware State 33 34.8, 238 Norfolk State 28 20.1
80% 118 Kent State 69 41.0, 173 Eastern Michigan 17 27.7
79% 142 Eastern Kentucky 29 33.4, 197 Tennessee State 14 19.9
79% 102 Alabama - Birmingham 20 35.5, 139 Houston 7 22.9
79% 38 Lehigh 21 31.9, 87 Fordham 14 18.7
78% 196 Georgetown 23 32.2, 232 Davidson 0 19.7
78% 154 Stephen F. Austin 55 36.8, 200 McNeese State 7 23.9
78% 55 Delaware 23 30.3, 131 Richmond 14 18.2
77% 181 Southern Utah 23 28.4, 215 South Dakota State 17 17.0
77% 157 North Texas 51 33.6, 189 Idaho 29 22.6
77% 83 Maine 42 32.0, 137 Rhode Island 28 21.2
77% 17 Purdue 24 27.0, 36 Ohio State 17 16.2
76% 204 Jackson State 45 33.1, 231 Prairie View 28 22.9
76% 130 Tulane 45 35.3, 166 Army 31 25.5
76% 89 Eastern Washington 51 33.4, 152 Montana State 44 23.9
76% 15 Louisiana State 26 23.9, 35 Alabama 10 14.6
74% 202 Gardner - Webb 18 29.2, 230 Charleston Southern 0 20.1
74% 80 Memphis 30 35.9, 107 Southern Mississippi 26 26.4
73% 43 Georgia Tech 30 25.1, 66 Connecticut 10 17.1
72% 28 Florida 48 28.5, 42 South Carolina 14 20.5
71% 195 Liberty 43 39.0, 225 Tennessee - Chattanoog 40 31.9
71% 8 Florida State 17 25.3, 41 North Carolina State 10 18.4
67% 138 Louisiana Tech 38 35.0, 156 Tulsa 21 29.5
67% 50 Furman 31 24.8, 101 Wofford 24 19.5
66% 160 California Poly 31 23.6, 172 Northern Colorado 0 17.8
63% 170 Middle Tennessee State 37 27.8, 174 Northeast Louisiana 24 23.6
63% 111 Colorado State 45 33.5, 117 Nevada - Las Vegas 10 29.1
63% 6 Auburn 24 20.2, 7 Georgia 6 16.6
62% 26 Texas A&M 32 37.4, 25 Texas Tech 25 34.3
61% 182 Alabama A&M 27 19.9, 180 Alcorn State 21 17.3
56% 203 Ball State 21 26.7, 194 Central Florida 17 25.6
56% 30 Iowa 29 25.2, 44 Minnesota 27 24.0
54% 98 Penn State 22 17.8, 120 Indiana 18 17.1
52% 201 Southeast Missouri Sta 31 26.3, 184 Tennessee Tech 28 25.8
51% 96 Yale 21 25.3, 81 Princeton 9 25.2
49% 190 Arkansas State 16 28.5, 177 Utah State 7 28.7
48% 90 Bucknell 42 22.3, 71 Colgate 7 22.6
46% 205 Idaho State 24 32.7, 185 Northern Arizona 17 33.5
46% 165 Southwest Missouri Sta 34 21.7, 136 Youngstown State 28 22.5
45% 149 Sacred Heart 24 24.6, 127 Robert Morris 3 25.7
45% 133 Northwestern State 45 31.1, 115 Sam Houston State 27 32.1
41% 150 Akron 31 25.1, 159 Ohio 19 26.9
41% 57 New Mexico 21 18.6, 69 Brigham Young 14 20.4
41% 56 Colorado 38 24.4, 40 Kansas State 31 26.3
41% 48 Oregon State 24 20.3, 53 Stanford 19 22.1
40% 146 Central Connecticut 28 21.8, 155 Albany 23 24.4
39% 45 California - Los Angel 34 26.9, 47 Oregon 26 29.8
38% 13 Miami - Florida 31 18.5, 14 Virginia 21 22.1
37% 145 Kentucky 14 22.2, 112 Vanderbilt 13 26.1
37% 24 Harvard 31 19.1, 21 Pennsylvania 10 23.2
36% 73 North Carolina 31 27.1, 62 Wake Forest 24 31.7
36% 59 William & Mary 27 24.9, 52 James Madison 24 29.6
35% 147 Cornell 32 11.2, 141 Columbia 26 15.1
31% 144 North Dakota State 25 19.7, 126 California - Davis 7 26.5
30% 219 Elon 24 16.2, 178 The Citadel 7 23.1
30% 171 Western Carolina 30 21.6, 121 Appalachian State 27 28.5
27% 61 Michigan State 49 19.1, 18 Wisconsin 14 27.5
27% 46 Boston College 36 17.5, 29 West Virginia 17 25.7
25% 220 Buffalo 36 22.6, 176 Central Michigan 6 31.9
24% 192 Texas State - San Marc 35 24.6, 125 Nicholls State 12 34.7
24% 85 Northeastern 37 27.4, 49 Hofstra 34 37.2
23% 67 Pittsburgh 41 18.2, 37 Notre Dame 38 29.1
22% 210 Southern Methodist 38 20.8, 134 Nevada - Reno 20 32.7
22% 162 New Mexico State 35 18.3, 119 Florida Atlantic 7 30.6
22% 106 Toledo 31 29.6, 63 Northern Illinois 17 40.9
21% 153 Temple 34 24.1, 72 Syracuse 24 37.0
20% 129 San Diego State 37 19.4, 91 Air Force 31 33.5
18% 110 Duke 16 17.5, 31 Clemson 13 32.1
17% 183 Howard 10 13.5, 122 Bethune - Cookman 7 28.8
17% 167 Dartmouth 20 10.4, 82 Brown 7 25.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
15 0.60 19 0.65 32 0.86 21 1.00 20 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 72 81.3 0.89
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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