prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 37 Montana 34 41.9, 107 Sam Houston State 13 26.2
79% 104 Alabama State 40 32.5, 160 Southern 35 20.3
37% 56 James Madison 48 24.3, 50 William & Mary 34 28.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 1 0.00 1 1.27 1 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 3 2 2.2 0.89
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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