prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 6 Utah 35 42.5, 45 Pittsburgh 7 24.5
84% 10 Georgia 24 27.2, 52 Wisconsin 21 11.1
82% 19 Bowling Green 52 46.2, 80 Memphis 35 32.4
76% 105 Southern Mississippi 31 28.6, 149 North Texas 10 19.0
76% 3 Louisville 44 43.9, 14 Boise State 40 35.2
74% 8 Texas 38 29.6, 23 Michigan 37 21.0
72% 36 Georgia Tech 51 25.6, 81 Syracuse 14 17.9
72% 13 Florida State 30 24.3, 38 West Virginia 18 16.9
67% 9 Miami - Florida 27 27.7, 17 Florida 10 22.1
65% 63 Northern Illinois 34 24.9, 94 Troy State 21 19.9
63% 57 Colorado 33 29.1, 82 Texas - El Paso 28 24.7
60% 35 Oregon State 38 25.4, 44 Notre Dame 21 23.3
60% 5 Auburn 16 20.6, 7 Virginia Tech 13 18.6
53% 51 Boston College 37 25.2, 55 North Carolina 24 24.7
48% 37 Minnesota 20 25.5, 34 Alabama 16 26.0
46% 78 Iowa State 17 21.1, 73 Miami - Ohio 13 21.9
42% 46 James Madison 31 25.5, 41 Montana 21 27.0
40% 71 Navy 34 17.1, 54 New Mexico 19 19.1
40% 29 Ohio State 33 23.5, 24 Oklahoma State 7 26.0
39% 76 Connecticut 39 29.7, 60 Toledo 10 32.4
39% 16 Iowa 30 18.0, 11 Louisiana State 25 20.8
38% 2 Southern California 55 22.2, 1 Oklahoma 19 25.4
37% 25 Fresno State 37 24.0, 15 Virginia 34 28.4
36% 106 Cincinnati 32 23.6, 84 Marshall 14 28.2
34% 28 Arizona State 27 26.2, 18 Purdue 23 31.5
31% 39 Tennessee 38 25.1, 22 Texas A&M 7 31.8
29% 122 Hawaii 59 30.5, 96 Alabama - Birmingham 40 37.4
24% 90 Wyoming 24 23.9, 40 California - Los Angel 21 33.9
23% 20 Texas Tech 45 25.5, 4 California 31 36.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.89 12 0.39 8 0.84 3 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 29 14 19.4 0.72
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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