prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 0 California 41 56.6, 0 Sacramento State 3 2.6
87% 0 Arkansas 49 52.1, 0 Southwest Missouri Sta 17 12.3
86% 0 Texas 60 45.9, 0 Louisiana - Lafayette 3 4.4
86% 0 Iowa 56 47.4, 0 Ball State 0 6.0
85% 0 Kansas State 35 48.4, 0 Florida International 21 16.0
84% 0 Washington State 38 46.3, 0 Idaho 26 13.6
84% 0 Virginia 31 44.7, 0 Western Michigan 19 9.7
84% 0 Toledo 62 47.3, 0 Western Illinois 14 17.8
83% 0 Southern California 63 50.1, 0 Hawaii 17 20.0
83% 0 Oklahoma State 15 44.5, 0 Montana State 10 12.0
80% 0 Oregon State 41 39.0, 0 Portland State 14 9.5
80% 0 Iowa State 32 39.5, 0 Illinois State 21 9.5
80% 0 Connecticut 38 38.3, 0 Buffalo 0 8.6
80% 0 Cincinnati 28 43.7, 0 Eastern Michigan 26 20.0
80% 0 Arizona State 63 41.0, 0 Temple 16 15.6
80% 0 Alabama 26 39.3, 0 Middle Tennessee State 7 10.5
79% 0 Utah 27 36.3, 0 Arizona 24 8.6
79% 0 South Carolina 24 35.9, 0 Central Florida 15 7.6
79% 0 Missouri 44 36.9, 0 Arkansas State 17 10.2
79% 0 Lafayette 40 38.7, 0 Marist 21 9.5
78% 0 Southern Illinois 58 38.1, 0 Southeast Missouri Sta 23 14.1
77% 0 Michigan 33 39.8, 0 Northern Illinois 17 20.6
76% 0 The Citadel 28 30.1, 0 Charleston Southern 14 6.1
76% 0 Hampton 20 37.4, 0 Jackson State 7 19.0
75% 0 Wagner 41 38.4, 0 La Salle 27 22.8
75% 0 Tennessee 17 36.0, 0 Alabama - Birmingham 10 18.2
75% 0 Mississippi State 38 28.1, 0 Murray State 6 6.5
75% 0 Kansas 30 27.3, 0 Florida Atlantic 19 5.7
74% 0 Northern Iowa 52 31.8, 0 Drake 17 13.5
74% 0 Lehigh 54 26.3, 0 Monmouth 26 5.0
73% 0 Towson 29 35.6, 0 Morgan State 26 20.2
73% 0 Michigan State 49 35.7, 0 Kent State 14 20.2
73% 0 Florida 32 34.3, 0 Wyoming 14 18.4
71% 0 Louisville 31 32.6, 0 Kentucky 24 17.7
70% 0 Troy State 27 26.1, 0 California Poly 10 9.2
69% 0 Penn State 23 23.7, 0 South Florida 13 7.6
69% 0 Northwestern 38 28.6, 0 Ohio 14 14.3
68% 0 Ohio State 34 28.1, 0 Miami - Ohio 14 14.7
68% 0 New Mexico 24 25.3, 0 Nevada - Las Vegas 22 10.1
67% 0 Virginia Military 33 26.2, 0 Davidson 0 12.6
67% 0 New Hampshire 17 35.5, 0 California - Davis 13 24.9
67% 0 Minnesota 41 34.9, 0 Tulsa 10 24.4
67% 0 Indiana 20 32.8, 0 Central Michigan 13 22.7
66% 0 Nebraska 25 31.1, 0 Maine 7 21.1
65% 0 Texas - El Paso 34 32.8, 0 New Mexico State 17 23.9
64% 0 Illinois 33 30.1, 0 Rutgers 30 21.4
64% 0 Holy Cross 56 29.5, 0 Sacred Heart 21 20.4
63% 0 West Virginia 15 29.5, 0 Syracuse 7 22.0
63% 0 Colorado 31 26.8, 0 Colorado State 28 19.0
62% 0 Wisconsin 56 25.5, 0 Bowling Green 42 18.4
62% 0 Oregon 38 27.8, 0 Houston 24 21.2
62% 0 Mississippi 10 31.0, 0 Memphis 6 24.7
62% 0 Georgia 48 30.3, 0 Boise State 13 24.4
62% 0 Furman 37 26.9, 0 Jacksonville State 35 19.6
62% 0 Duquesne 23 25.2, 0 Robert Morris 12 18.5
61% 0 Marshall 36 30.3, 0 William & Mary 24 25.4
61% 0 California - Los Angel 44 25.9, 0 San Diego State 21 20.5
60% 0 Massachusetts 19 21.3, 0 Richmond 6 15.5
60% 0 Idaho State 38 31.1, 0 Southern Utah 13 26.7
60% 0 Air Force 20 25.0, 0 Washington 17 20.7
59% 0 Virginia Tech 20 22.8, 0 North Carolina State 16 18.7
58% 0 Florida State 10 19.1, 0 Miami - Florida 7 15.6
56% 0 Coastal Carolina 17 21.5, 0 Elon 10 19.2
54% 0 Appalachian State 24 29.0, 0 Eastern Kentucky 16 27.8
53% 0 Rhode Island 34 25.2, 0 Fordham 20 24.1
53% 0 Notre Dame 42 23.4, 0 Pittsburgh 21 22.2
53% 0 Baylor 28 24.0, 0 Southern Methodist 23 22.9
51% 0 Clemson 25 22.0, 0 Texas A&M 24 21.7
49% 0 Maryland 23 17.1, 0 Navy 20 17.4
48% 0 Tennessee - Chattanoog 30 32.8, 0 Tennessee Tech 23 33.5
46% 0 San Jose State 35 33.4, 0 Eastern Washington 24 34.6
46% 0 Morehead State 26 18.3, 0 Saint Francis - Pennsy 25 20.0
46% 0 Georgia Southern 41 27.7, 0 Northeastern 38 29.2
44% 0 Northwestern State 27 23.2, 0 Northeast Louisiana 23 25.5
44% 0 Eastern Illinois 24 26.8, 0 Indiana State 13 28.8
43% 0 Boston College 20 17.4, 0 Brigham Young 3 20.3
42% 0 South Carolina State 27 23.7, 0 Alabama State 14 26.7
41% 0 Alabama A&M 27 17.6, 0 Tennessee State 14 21.8
38% 0 Vanderbilt 24 17.3, 0 Wake Forest 20 25.0
37% 0 Mississippi Valley Sta 30 16.2, 0 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 17 25.1
34% 0 Delaware State 21 18.3, 0 Florida A&M 17 28.9
33% 0 Georgia Tech 23 6.8, 0 Auburn 14 22.1
32% 0 East Carolina 24 20.2, 0 Duke 21 32.1
24% 0 Georgetown 19 9.1, 0 Bucknell 16 31.6
23% 0 Central Connecticut 24 13.7, 0 Colgate 22 36.2
17% 0 Texas Christian 17 13.9, 0 Oklahoma 10 44.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
19 0.86 29 1.29 25 1.21 13 1.09 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 86 68 59.1 1.15
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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