prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 28 Connecticut 59 43.7, 190 Liberty 0 4.3
86% 12 Texas Tech 56 49.1, 139 Florida International 3 16.8
86% 8 Florida State 62 44.9, 187 The Citadel 10 1.4
85% 39 Fresno State 55 44.8, 199 Weber State 17 5.7
83% 20 Utah 31 44.8, 147 Utah State 7 15.6
83% 14 Purdue 49 43.9, 126 Akron 24 13.1
82% 107 South Florida 37 43.2, 224 Florida A&M 3 12.0
82% 23 Wisconsin 65 48.9, 158 Temple 0 18.4
82% 15 Florida 41 39.9, 115 Louisiana Tech 3 11.6
82% 13 West Virginia 35 38.4, 137 Wofford 7 4.8
82% 1 Georgia 17 39.2, 75 South Carolina 15 5.2
81% 57 Wyoming 38 39.9, 179 Northeast Louisiana 0 11.7
81% 6 Boston College 44 35.7, 140 Army 7 1.9
80% 116 Baylor 48 41.4, 200 Samford 14 19.3
80% 53 Bowling Green 40 49.0, 205 Ball State 31 23.1
80% 4 Virginia Tech 45 38.6, 128 Duke 0 7.9
79% 183 Arkansas State 56 38.2, 235 Tennessee - Martin 7 13.8
79% 48 Arizona 31 35.6, 164 Northern Arizona 12 7.9
79% 30 California - Los Angel 63 40.3, 114 Rice 21 18.7
78% 142 Illinois State 56 44.4, 215 Drake 19 24.5
77% 71 Kentucky 41 37.2, 153 Idaho State 29 16.9
77% 47 Toledo 56 40.0, 113 Western Michigan 23 22.2
77% 40 Colorado 39 36.3, 133 New Mexico State 0 15.7
76% 85 Nevada - Las Vegas 34 41.8, 151 Idaho 31 25.8
75% 166 Bethune - Cookman 31 29.9, 223 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 17 11.2
75% 122 Syracuse 31 25.0, 211 Buffalo 0 2.3
75% 72 Kansas 36 39.9, 127 Appalachian State 8 23.0
75% 21 Michigan State 42 40.7, 63 Hawaii 14 25.1
73% 99 Indiana 35 28.9, 170 Nicholls State 31 11.7
73% 24 Oregon State 30 40.0, 58 Boise State 27 26.3
73% 9 Georgia Tech 27 31.5, 50 North Carolina 21 15.6
72% 185 Alabama State 27 25.9, 238 Texas Southern 15 7.7
72% 26 Auburn 28 27.2, 86 Mississippi State 0 9.9
71% 120 Western Kentucky 23 23.6, 177 Eastern Kentucky 21 7.2
71% 88 Hofstra 36 33.6, 188 Albany 7 17.9
71% 56 Penn State 42 26.3, 109 Cincinnati 24 11.1
71% 46 Nebraska 31 28.3, 100 Wake Forest 3 12.8
70% 213 North Carolina A&T 16 30.3, 232 Norfolk State 14 15.4
70% 49 Oregon 47 35.0, 80 Montana 14 23.2
70% 41 Air Force 41 29.7, 89 San Diego State 29 15.9
69% 201 Wagner 14 30.3, 234 Iona 0 17.5
69% 123 Lafayette 7 25.9, 172 Richmond 0 11.9
69% 118 Brigham Young 45 22.9, 193 Eastern Illinois 10 5.0
68% 155 Kent State 33 35.5, 186 Southeast Missouri Sta 12 23.8
68% 36 Oklahoma 31 20.8, 101 Tulsa 15 3.7
67% 208 Elon 48 22.9, 236 Savannah State 14 10.7
67% 149 California Poly 37 24.6, 189 Sacramento State 13 13.3
67% 148 Eastern Michigan 31 34.3, 175 Louisiana - Lafayette 10 23.8
67% 108 Houston 31 33.8, 138 Sam Houston State 10 24.4
67% 87 Illinois 40 34.8, 117 San Jose State 19 24.9
67% 38 Minnesota 56 29.7, 74 Colorado State 24 18.0
67% 27 California 56 23.2, 94 Washington 17 10.4
66% 184 Monmouth 65 43.9, 226 La Salle 27 35.2
65% 218 South Dakota State 69 29.1, 227 Valparaiso 6 18.8
65% 43 Alabama 30 20.5, 76 Southern Mississippi 21 9.4
64% 51 Northwestern 38 32.0, 68 Northern Illinois 37 24.0
63% 206 Texas State - San Marc 34 25.2, 219 Southern Utah 0 16.6
63% 106 Montana State 42 23.2, 141 Stephen F. Austin 6 14.4
63% 104 Holy Cross 48 28.3, 130 Georgetown 6 20.9
63% 96 William & Mary 41 25.6, 167 Virginia Military 7 17.1
63% 2 Texas 25 26.2, 16 Ohio State 22 18.8
61% 228 Saint Peter's 25 24.3, 229 Saint Francis - Pennsy 22 18.2
61% 195 Marist 22 30.2, 220 Sacred Heart 20 25.2
61% 65 Oklahoma State 23 21.5, 97 Florida Atlantic 3 14.8
61% 59 Delaware 34 33.8, 67 Lehigh 33 28.9
60% 154 Hampton 22 20.4, 202 Howard 12 15.0
60% 90 Washington State 55 33.8, 131 Nevada - Reno 21 30.4
56% 152 Duquesne 30 24.9, 143 Fordham 13 22.9
54% 180 Stony Brook 21 24.1, 165 Bucknell 18 22.8
53% 207 Southeast Louisiana 48 23.0, 203 Alcorn State 21 21.7
50% 124 Portland State 14 20.3, 150 California - Davis 12 20.3
50% 45 Stanford 41 22.6, 62 Navy 38 22.6
48% 22 Clemson 28 21.7, 35 Maryland 24 22.5
47% 217 Tennessee State 20 15.7, 216 Jackson State 14 16.8
44% 210 Mississippi Valley Sta 31 22.6, 182 Southern 28 24.8
44% 98 Rhode Island 56 25.5, 112 Central Connecticut 10 27.5
44% 73 Alabama - Birmingham 27 16.7, 79 Troy State 7 18.9
41% 209 Grambling 44 18.4, 176 Alabama A&M 0 21.9
41% 110 Rutgers 38 28.2, 69 Villanova 6 30.9
39% 221 Western Illinois 28 22.4, 191 Northern Colorado 23 27.7
39% 134 North Texas 14 22.5, 125 Middle Tennessee State 7 27.5
38% 25 Notre Dame 17 18.7, 19 Michigan 10 25.4
37% 78 Kansas State 21 23.8, 64 Marshall 19 30.6
37% 60 New Mexico 45 15.2, 44 Missouri 35 23.4
33% 161 Coastal Carolina 31 14.1, 77 James Madison 27 26.2
33% 145 Ohio 16 18.6, 66 Pittsburgh 10 29.3
33% 10 Louisiana State 35 23.3, 5 Arizona State 31 33.7
32% 173 Youngstown State 35 21.5, 93 Northeastern 16 33.2
32% 171 North Dakota State 35 14.6, 129 Northwestern State 7 27.4
32% 160 Colgate 17 12.9, 61 Massachusetts 14 27.2
31% 55 Vanderbilt 28 22.2, 31 Arkansas 24 33.7
28% 178 Western Carolina 41 15.7, 84 Furman 21 31.5
27% 194 Tennessee - Chattanoog 21 32.7, 146 Jacksonville State 18 44.7
25% 162 Central Michigan 38 13.8, 83 Miami - Ohio 37 32.2
23% 91 Iowa State 23 8.1, 3 Iowa 3 30.9
19% 174 Southern Methodist 21 10.7, 17 Texas Christian 10 43.8
14% 192 McNeese State 23 17.1, 42 Georgia Southern 20 51.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.84 38 1.05 29 1.16 17 1.07 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 97 72 67.5 1.07
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net