prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 30 Toledo 42 51.8, 211 Temple 17 12.9
92% 7 Texas 51 58.5, 167 Rice 10 14.7
91% 8 Minnesota 46 38.0, 122 Florida Atlantic 7 3.9
91% 1 Texas Tech 80 55.2, 159 Sam Houston State 21 6.0
90% 59 Rutgers 17 38.4, 214 Buffalo 3 7.0
90% 50 New Mexico 38 39.4, 182 New Mexico State 21 6.4
89% 52 Alabama - Birmingham 35 38.6, 193 Jacksonville State 28 4.2
89% 13 Auburn 63 44.6, 183 Ball State 3 3.0
89% 4 Georgia 44 55.8, 202 Northeast Louisiana 7 2.5
88% 149 Northern Arizona 27 36.0, 230 Southern Utah 7 5.3
88% 69 Northern Illinois 42 48.5, 198 Tennessee Tech 3 18.5
87% 46 Oklahoma State 20 35.9, 152 Arkansas State 10 9.5
86% 128 Portland State 28 31.9, 209 Sacramento State 12 9.0
85% 40 Michigan 55 30.9, 126 Eastern Michigan 0 8.0
85% 22 Iowa 45 33.5, 86 Northern Iowa 21 12.7
84% 38 Texas A&M 66 34.0, 106 Southern Methodist 8 14.0
84% 36 Nebraska 7 27.9, 87 Pittsburgh 6 10.9
83% 205 Morehead State 48 41.1, 238 Valparaiso 7 17.5
83% 176 Robert Morris 49 31.1, 234 Butler 13 5.5
83% 21 Ohio State 27 28.9, 78 San Diego State 6 11.6
82% 60 Penn State 40 34.5, 136 Central Michigan 3 15.3
82% 55 Kansas 34 32.1, 127 Louisiana Tech 14 11.9
82% 10 North Carolina State 54 49.5, 173 Eastern Kentucky 10 9.1
81% 143 Furman 45 42.7, 203 Samford 23 25.5
81% 91 Illinois State 27 42.6, 213 Eastern Illinois 6 21.1
80% 191 Morgan State 55 41.9, 229 Savannah State 26 26.8
79% 101 Massachusetts 40 20.9, 186 Albany 0 3.0
79% 9 Florida 16 26.6, 35 Tennessee 7 13.9
78% 174 Dayton 46 32.0, 235 Austin Peay 0 3.2
78% 120 James Madison 65 31.3, 179 Delaware State 7 16.0
78% 82 Washington 34 33.4, 148 Idaho 6 18.8
78% 57 Pennsylvania 41 26.0, 124 Duquesne 14 8.5
78% 29 California 35 31.5, 63 Illinois 20 18.4
77% 208 Sacred Heart 38 29.5, 239 Iona 14 6.0
77% 99 Brown 34 27.7, 197 Georgetown 3 10.7
77% 89 Hofstra 55 32.3, 163 Stony Brook 0 13.8
77% 18 California - Los Angel 41 34.5, 58 Oklahoma 24 20.4
77% 17 Southern California 70 28.1, 56 Arkansas 17 15.5
76% 204 Southern 38 37.6, 233 Prairie View 0 20.4
76% 121 Cornell 24 26.0, 178 Bucknell 7 12.2
76% 109 Youngstown State 42 32.6, 223 Liberty 0 8.4
76% 85 New Hampshire 62 25.8, 171 Towson 21 14.8
76% 61 Missouri 52 26.6, 84 Troy State 21 16.1
75% 129 North Dakota State 41 25.3, 196 Weber State 0 7.3
73% 25 Oregon 37 37.6, 42 Fresno State 34 28.1
72% 32 Arizona State 52 45.0, 53 Northwestern 21 36.1
72% 2 Virginia Tech 45 27.4, 110 Ohio 0 0.7
71% 155 Hampton 31 23.8, 215 North Carolina A&T 14 11.5
70% 220 Charleston Southern 16 23.5, 231 Jacksonville 10 13.8
70% 156 Memphis 59 24.2, 180 Tennessee - Chattanoog 14 16.0
69% 187 Stephen F. Austin 63 33.5, 207 Western Illinois 36 24.6
69% 27 Louisville 63 31.6, 41 Oregon State 27 23.0
68% 188 Southwest Missouri Sta 45 32.2, 199 Southeast Missouri Sta 21 24.9
68% 20 Purdue 31 27.9, 68 Arizona 24 19.9
67% 192 Wagner 52 18.6, 225 Saint Peter's 25 9.1
67% 141 Villanova 38 30.0, 161 Northeastern 20 21.1
67% 112 Wake Forest 44 36.5, 164 East Carolina 34 22.5
66% 212 Murray State 27 23.7, 224 Indiana State 15 13.2
64% 100 South Florida 31 22.1, 104 Central Florida 14 16.9
64% 90 Indiana 38 28.1, 88 Kentucky 14 22.4
64% 75 Baylor 20 34.6, 131 Army 10 28.9
63% 15 Georgia Tech 28 20.4, 19 Connecticut 13 14.6
62% 144 Duke 40 12.1, 189 Virginia Military 14 3.0
62% 49 Vanderbilt 31 17.4, 43 Mississippi 23 14.3
62% 16 West Virginia 31 18.8, 47 Maryland 19 15.2
61% 113 Wofford 21 29.9, 115 Georgia Southern 17 25.7
61% 37 Harvard 31 33.0, 66 Holy Cross 21 28.9
61% 6 Wisconsin 14 33.5, 34 North Carolina 5 27.3
60% 139 Montana 7 27.9, 147 South Dakota State 0 22.5
60% 79 Southern Mississippi 48 26.8, 103 McNeese State 20 17.6
60% 11 Miami - Florida 36 20.0, 28 Clemson 30 17.9
59% 151 Appalachian State 30 24.2, 146 Coastal Carolina 3 21.9
58% 102 Rhode Island 48 24.2, 93 William & Mary 29 22.1
56% 117 Akron 17 26.3, 153 Middle Tennessee State 7 23.5
55% 226 Jackson State 24 14.9, 232 Texas Southern 21 8.1
53% 190 Louisiana - Lafayette 49 21.1, 175 Northwestern State 28 20.5
51% 194 Alabama State 41 21.7, 210 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 10 20.7
51% 172 South Carolina State 27 20.8, 169 Bethune - Cookman 24 20.7
51% 94 Princeton 23 18.7, 119 Lafayette 21 18.5
51% 67 Washington State 48 21.9, 70 Grambling 7 21.7
49% 118 Mississippi State 21 19.7, 114 Tulane 14 20.1
48% 108 Texas - El Paso 44 23.4, 81 Houston 41 23.9
47% 140 Dartmouth 26 15.9, 111 Colgate 21 16.9
47% 135 San Diego 17 27.4, 105 Yale 14 28.6
46% 116 Cincinnati 7 24.9, 83 Western Carolina 3 26.2
45% 154 Columbia 23 21.7, 165 Fordham 17 22.9
44% 157 Western Michigan 34 26.6, 130 Southern Illinois 28 28.0
43% 14 Michigan State 44 22.3, 23 Notre Dame 41 23.7
41% 107 Tulsa 54 14.6, 98 North Texas 2 19.8
41% 5 Florida State 28 15.5, 12 Boston College 17 18.0
40% 219 Alabama A&M 27 16.9, 201 Mississippi Valley Sta 13 19.7
40% 216 Florida A&M 33 15.0, 195 Howard 20 18.7
39% 185 Marist 31 18.0, 150 Central Connecticut 22 21.2
38% 142 Nevada - Reno 22 25.2, 95 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 29.1
38% 123 Miami - Ohio 27 27.4, 125 Kent State 10 31.4
38% 51 Alabama 37 13.5, 33 South Carolina 14 22.0
36% 48 Wyoming 29 21.8, 44 Air Force 28 26.9
35% 206 Northern Colorado 35 22.2, 158 Southeast Louisiana 19 31.1
33% 236 Tennessee - Martin 42 18.6, 221 Tennessee State 20 30.4
33% 76 Virginia 27 12.9, 73 Syracuse 24 19.8
31% 138 California Poly 38 18.5, 71 Montana State 10 26.0
28% 92 Texas Christian 23 17.0, 31 Utah 20 27.5
19% 177 Richmond 26 3.1, 96 Maine 21 18.6
12% 162 California - Davis 20 11.5, 39 Stanford 17 41.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
20 0.91 32 1.02 24 1.26 22 1.08 6 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 104 80 73.7 1.08
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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